http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcontent/dws/spt/basketball/nba/stories/071804dnsponbalede.978ab.html I posted this due to Dallas' Mavs beat writer, and former Rox', offering up his very, very early predictions -- Mavs at #9 floored me. Have a look: Lakers less scary, but West is still best Shaq-less LA just being beatable doesn't mean conference is sagging 11:59 PM CDT on Saturday, July 17, 2004 By EDDIE SEFKO / The Dallas Morning News It doesn't take a brain surgeon or a paranoid NBA general manager to recognize that winning the Western Conference in 2004-05 won't be as hard as it was the last five seasons. Take Shaquille O'Neal out of the neighborhood, and it doesn't matter who moves into his old mansion. It depreciates no matter what. Kenyon Martin? Tracy McGrady? Carlos Boozer? Bring 'em on. They aren't going to make up for the departure of the most dominant center in the league from the Los Angeles Lakers to the Eastern Conference's Miami Heat. "Hey, it's easier," one West GM said last week. "We all know that." Actually, it's only easier to beat the one team that everybody feared. Nobody wants to say that out loud. The Lakers still have punch with Kobe Bryant. But they will go into next season as no better than a 50-50 bet to get a home-court advantage in the playoffs next season. And it's not a stretch to argue that they will have to fight hard simply to make the playoffs. However, one less kingpin doesn't mean the Western Conference is losing its edge over the East. Far from it. "Everybody scares me," says Donnie Nelson, the Mavericks' president of basketball operations. "I'm not trying to be cute. We thought it was tough last year. Now, the newcomers like Denver and Houston aren't going to go away." And the old-comers, like Minnesota, Sacramento and San Antonio have done nothing to dent their reputations. In fact, in the Spurs' case, they probably have moved to the forefront as favorites to win the West. The newest Spur, free-agent guard Brent Barry – who jumped from Seattle to San Antonio –will do nothing but strengthen the Tim Duncan-Manu Ginobili-Tony Parker core. And he brings an added confidence to the Spurs. "As the dust settles," Barry says, "I think people will figure out that San Antonio is pretty much in the prime spot to continue its dominance in the Western Conference." Two of the last six NBA titles went to Duncan and the Spurs. With 10 weeks left in the summer, the Spurs already are the favorites to make it three out of seven. "They got the other big guy," Nelson says. "And a lot of people, myself included, think Tim Duncan is the real beast of the West." Nelson's counterpart in San Antonio, Spurs GM R.C. Buford, is playing coy, as always. But he might have tipped his hand slightly about what he thinks of his team when he said last week: "All you can do is rotate your roster until you find the pieces you believe can take you forward. Right now, the roster you see for us is going to be the roster that will be here for a few years." In other words, he likes it. And most people around the league do, too. Not that the Spurs will get anything handed to them. Minnesota has kept together the team that went to the conference finals last season, only to lose to the Lakers. Now that barrier has been removed with the exit of Shaq. Sacramento is desperate to get a healthy season, but after three years in a row with at least one key player hobbled at critical playoff junctures, it's beginning to look like they may be star-crossed. And then there is Denver, which added power forward Martin last week to second-year sensation Carmelo Anthony. Phoenix brought in Steve Nash to give the Suns three high-grade starters as he joins Shawn Marion and Amare Stoudemire. "We've had some good players who continue to come West," Buford says. "Houston and Phoenix and Denver all have added big-time players. I don't think you're going to see any of the other teams in the West take a step backward in terms of competing. But you'll see other teams stepping up to join them. "I'm glad we don't have to deal with the Kobe-Shaq combination anymore. But we've never been ones to run away from that challenge anyway." Now, it's the Spurs who are offering the big challenge in the West. E-mail esefko@dallasnews.com POWER SWITCH A look at the Western Conference's regular-season results last season and Staff Writer Eddie Sefko's projection of how the West might shake out this season as teams stand today: 2003-04 2004-05 1. Minnesota San Antonio 2. San Antonio Minnesota 3. LA Lakers Sacramento 4. Sacramento Denver 5. Dallas Houston 6. Memphis LA Lakers 7. Houston Phoenix 8. Denver Memphis 9. Utah Dallas 10. Portland New Orleans 11. Seattle Utah 12. Golden State LA Clippers 13. Phoenix Portland 14. LA Clippers Seattle 15. N/A Golden State COMINGS AND GOINGS Key players who have changed conferences so far this summer Player New team Former team Eddie Sefko comment Tracy McGrady Houston Orlando Can he share the limelight with Yao Ming? Kenyon Martin Denver New Jersey Gives Carmelo Anthony a brute-force sidekick Carlos Boozer Utah Cleveland Could pair with Andrei Kirilenko for years Juwan Howard Houston Orlando Could be the perfect lieutenant for Yao Jerry Stackhouse Dallas Washington Another scorer on a team full of them Shaquille O'Neal Miami LA Lakers Big Diesel has new lightweights to steamroll Steve Francis Orlando Houston Wondering whether he'll ever make big time Antawn Jamison Washington Dallas Back to being best player on bad team
That has to be a serious wakeup call to the Mav fanboys to see their own beat writer have the Mavs in the lottery. The West is tough no doubt! It is like keeping up with the Joneses with all of these trades and FA moves. Thankfully OUR move was to get one of the top 5 best players in the NBA AND hold out and not over pay for role players. The other teams however, to keep up with the Joneses didnt have the McGrady luxary and thus HAD to over pay for players "just to keep up"!
I know you live in Dallas. Is there a real feeling among the fans there that the Mavs are going to suffer a severe drop off after losing Nash and Jamison?
Most of the Mavs fans up here in Dallas still haven't figured out the Antoine Walker trade. lol. And now they're trying to figure out why in the hell they're going after Vince Carter.
Im just trying to figure out how they are going to get Dirk, Finely and Stackhouse all their shots without a proven distributor. Plus, theyve lost the 6th man of the year. So, that leaves: SF - Walker PF - Nowitzki C - Frankenstein SG - Finley PG - Daniels Bench - PG - Harris SG/SF - Howard SG - Stackhouse PF - Laettner C - Bradley Thats one F'd up team.
Top to bottom, a hot period here, an injury there and anyone (but Warriors and maybe Clips) are in the play-offs, maybe home seeded. Or the reverse and lotto protection of #1s is a must in this well balanced, competitive conference. BTW - Kidd is coming to the West. To Mavs? To Spurs? To Clips? I don't know, but he'll be in the West before labor Day.
We're on the same page on overpaying. And further... The Jazz will have Harpring back and added Okur and Boozer and still dropped from 9th to 11th in Sefko's opinion. And since the Mavs will probably have a winning record, they'll get the numerically highest pick...#14. If Sefko is correct, the Mavs may break the Rockets record of most wins by a Lottery team.
i think the spurs wolves and kings become 1, 2, 3 respectively. he placed the grizz too low. they were 6th last year, and it seems that the rockets and nuggets passed them during the offseason, but i don't think that west is going to leave the roster alone. he knows he needs to make a move to just into home court in the playoffs. they have enough talent to make a couple 2 for 1 or 3 for 1 trades and become very scary. i would say they will finnish 4th. the rockets and nuggets will be 5th and 6th. the lakers and mavs round out the playoffs. not before utah, phoenix, and portland give them a scare.
I was just in Dallas for the week, and listening to their local sports radio show, their fans and sports talk host are nervous about next year. They had Donnie Nelson on for an interview, and when he was talking about loosing Nash, it sounded like someone had died.... It was funny !!
The Walker trade was hideous. To me it looked like they were just trying to get from under the Raef contract they JUST handed out. Bizarre! I mean think it through....by getting Walker they are taking the deicion making out of Nash's hands! Ridiculous! As for the Carter indulgence....That to me SCREAMS as a Cuban decision to go after a NAME player that brings in BANK. To me that is HIS answer to the Rockets getting McGrady. Ultimately I dont see the Mavs getting him. I dont think they have the pieces to do it. It has to KILL Cuban to see the Rockets getting a HUGE megastar in McGrady while his team doesnt have one. It has to KILL Cuban to see the Rockets have a star center like Yao and a star center like Duncan in San Antonio and he doesnt have one. Not only does Cuban not have those, nor has he added any pieces but LOST pieces! His team is about to be the 3rd best in the state and for a guy like Cuban that has a lot of pride that has to kill him!
Stackhouse on that team is bizarre! You are right, without a good distributor that team just is going to have a hard time dividing shots for each guy. I think the starting unit will be PG - Daniels SG - Finley SF - Stackhouse PF - Dirk C - Laettner I dont see Pavel getting minutes. Maybe Fortson/Bradley will see some backup C time. But if Laettner is there I bet he starts, just to stretch defenses. Stackhouse on the Mavs just seems like a bad move. I dont think he will fit in as well as Jamison did last year. And I bet Stackhouse starts over Howard, although I think Howard would be the better choice chemistrywise.
This is assuming we don't get a PG and a backup C, meaning our bench gets deeper and/or our starting line-up improves? We have the best C in the West, second best in the NBA. We have the second best SG in the league and he's never played with a good big man before. His game is perfectly suited - good long-range shooter, very good midrange game, great overall skills, and prefers a slightly slower tempo. I thik we'll be better than the Mavs unless they pull a lopsided trade before the season. Why the hell did they trade Jamison? Him and Nowitzki were perfect compliments on offense. They don't play defense anyway, so who cares about that? They were right to let Nash walk. I think a Devin Harris and Marquis Daniels rotation will handle the point nicely next year. A loss, but not a HUGE loss losing Nash. What they should've done is acquired Dampier and NVE from the Warriors, offering Antoine Walker and Shawn Bradley. Could GS say no to that kind of cap relief? NVE has 2 more years, and Dampier is asking for tons of money. They make Foyle the starter (just as they have done now) and Bradley backs him up on a decent contract. Walker creates somewhat of a logjam at PF, but they wouldn't have trouble trading Troy Murphy or Cliff Robinson. Mavs immediately go back to being excellent again. Dampier/Mbenga Nowitzki/Fortson/Jamison Jamison/Josh Howard/Finley Finley/Marquis Daniels NVE/Marquis Daniels They screwed up and they'll pay. They won't be better than a 7th or 8th seed, no way.
I wouldn't be surprised if Eric Snow lands in Dallas. He’s a distributor that gives them leadership, defense, and toughness. His lack of shooting doesn't hurt them since they're already loaded with shooters.
right now there is a lot of anger towards management for not trying harder to get Shaq. The prevailing feeling is that Dallas is still a 50 win team but that they have no real shot at contending for a championship.
