I brought this up in the original thread about the Sixers trade. It is not really about that deal, but more about the team as a whole, so after some encouragement from other posters, I decided to start a new topic to discuss. Basically, I think the concern over Tmac....whether we should trade him or let him expire, and who we could get in his place....is kind of short-sighted. While no doubt a major decision that will determine this team's course for the next few years and beyond, it is not THE major decision. One aspect of this deal that I haven't heard brought up yet is the potential for roster flexibility this proposed (Iggy/Dalembert for Tmac) deal would give the Rockets after next year. I checked hoopshype to get the contract info for all players involved: http://hoopshype.com/salaries/philadelphia.htm http://hoopshype.com/salaries/houston.htm There is a very enticing possibility that could become a reality if this deal is made. Barring any other major additions/subtractions between now and then, this is what the Rockets payroll after next year could look like: (Dr. Nuegebauer already corrected me on a couple of details, so if you see any more, please let me know) Current Core Player's Existing Deals Past 2010/11 ($ 2011/12 Salary) Iguodola - $13.5M Ariza - $6.8M Current Core Player's Reasonable Extensions Past 2010/11 ($ Projected 2011/12 Salary) Brooks - $7M Landry - $7M Lowry - $3M Budinger - $1M Potential Expiring Contracts or Team Options Before/After 2010/11 ($ Expiring 2010/11 Salary) Yao - $17.7M Dalembert - $12.2M Scola - $4M Battier - $7M Hayes - $2.3M Anderson - $2.7M Dorsey - $1M Taylor - $0.9M If the Rockets keep the 6 players in the first 2 categories (Total Value: $38.3M)... And they let the other 8 players from the last category expire (Total Value: $46.8M)... And assuming the cap stays right around the $55M - $58M level... The Rockets would have about $20M in cap space to rebuild the team without Tmac or Yao after next year. We would still own the "Bird Rights" to Yao, Scola, Battier and Dalembert, so we would probably be able to pick and choose which (if any) we wanted to keep, but we would have an opportunity to add THE premier FA of 2010/11 and still keep a core of Iggy/Landry/Brooks/Ariza/Lowry/Budinger together. Plus, we would have REAL cap space, not the imaginary $23M of this year which will probably be more like $10-15M. I know other factors are in play, such as this year's potential lotto pick, whether Brooks/Landry will command more than $7M per season, Les' willingness to pay any luxury tax for next year, etc....but my estimate of $20M in cap space shouldn't change by more than a couple of $M either way. This is the real question the Rockets and every fan should really be asking themselves: Should the Rockets (by that I mean Les) be willing to make a huge financial commitment to Yao beyond his current deal? For financial reasons, I think Yao will stay a Rocket for the rest of his career. For basketball reasons, I think giving Yao a mega-extension just before he turns 32 could haunt this franchise for years down the road. We know what often happens when an aging big man gets that one last big deal after he turns 30 (Webber, Shaq, Brand) and how such a mistake can bog down a franchise for years (ask Kings, Heat, Sixers fans). Instead, we could use this 76ers deal as an opportunity to replace both aging stars with younger cornerstones. Carmelo Anthony, Kevin Durant, Chris Paul (trade for $$$ reasons), and Al Horford could be available after 2010. Derrick Rose, Anthony Randolph, Eric Gordon, Kevin Love, Brook Lopez, and Russell Westbrook could be available after 2011. Melo, Durant and Paul are no-brainers as all 3 are already top-10 players in the NBA. I would take all 3 over anyone that has been discussed for this year except LBJ and DWade, and certainly over Yao. I'm not sure any of those other guys can step up and be "the man" on an NBA champion, but after almost a decade we still don't know that about Yao either, and I do know they will play more over the next 5 years than Yao will. And I'm fairly confident none of those guys have peaked, whereas Yao's best days are probably already behind him. He will become more and more injury-prone as he gets older, and he hasn't exactly been Cal Ripken Jr up to this point, so I feel building an entire team around him beyond next season would be a huge mistake. Everyone is all gung-ho for this year's crop of FAs, which kind of makes me wonder what exactly McGrady's expiring cap space could realistically become this offseason. With most of the NBA planning for the past 3+ years to rebuild their team this offseason, maybe the smart play is to wait until the next year, after the rest have already blown their load, and be one of the few teams with $$$ to make a major move with much less competition. LBJ and DWade are not going to sign with Houston. Bosh and Amare might, but what are we really getting there, and how much better is that than the Scola/Landry combo we already have? Bosh is the favorite so far, citing a desire to return to Texas as #1 reason he would come here, but I really don't see any difference between him and Jermaine O'neal about 6 years ago when he signed his megadeal with Indiana. Bosh is a great player, no doubt, but O'neal, even before the injury, never lifted Indiana above the 2nd round of the playoffs, even with RonRon playing at a near-MVP level too. We probably won't get him for just McGrady either, meaning the young core of this team must be torn apart to make a deal with Toronto. And we will be competing with about half the league to sign him, once the LeBron and DWade dominoes fall into place, so there is no guarantee we will get him without a trade. Plus, with Landry and (possibly) Scola, we would have to make other moves to balance the roster if we brought in Bosh, whereas bringing in a wing player would fill a huge void. Which brings me to Iggy. I do not think he is (or ever will be) elite, and I would group him just below the Monta Ellis/Joe Johnson/DeMarcus Granger level as a premium go-to scorer. He's more on par with guys like OJ Mayo, Rudy Gay, Maggette and Richard Jefferson...good scorers who put up numbers on bad teams, but on good teams would be a solid #2 or a great #3 scorer. He is not, however, selfish or a 'me' guy who checks his stat sheet after every game and forces bad shots like some of the guys I compared him to. He is very unselfish, a great defender for a scorer, runs the floor very well, and is a capable shooter and finisher. In short, I think he would blend in very well with the current team, give them the go-to scorer on the perimeter they need to take pressure of Brooks to score points, be able to keep up in the full-court game Adelman has embraced, and not disrupt the chemistry this team has going. The real hidden nugget of this potential deal is Dalembert. I have already mentioned his off-the-court potential for this team, but he's not a stiff. On the court, although lazy and offensively-challenged, he is the ideal shot-blocking, rebounding true C this team desparately needs. He would be a perfect complement to Yao as a backup, and, just as importantly, he is a capable fill-in starter with size when Yao inevitably misses games due to injury. Everyone now knows that the Rockets have to limit Yao's minutes (preferably less than 30 MPG) in the regular season to have him healthy and rested for the playoffs. And we know that they have to have a legit backup plan when (not if) he misses long stretches of games. Dalembert accomplishes both of those objectives. Plus, if needed, he could be resigned (under Bird rules) as Yao's replacement once another major FA was brought in if the Rockets decided to let Yao walk. So what do you think? Should the Rockets extend Yao? Would Les ever let him leave? Is Bosh just a very good player, or a legit Hall-of-Famer who can carry a team to a championship? Should we wait to make a move on a top-10 player in a year or 2, while still remaining competitive next year?
Lowry/Landry are gonna demand more than you are estimating. Andre Miller got 10 mill a year and Milsap got 11 mill a year. I think that is really close to what Lowry/Landry will get (I think Lowry a bit less, and Landry a bit more).
I like the way you think, but when you look at the free agent list in 2011, and whittle it down to true unrestricted free agents, its not that impressive.
I know that waiting guarantees nothing, and it's very probable that every player I listed as a potential target could resign and never even hit the open market. But the same can be applied to this year's crop. If LBJ, Wade, Bosh and JJohnson stay where they are, what options are we left with? Amare? And whatever is left will become the focal point of at least 5 team's plans when the music stops and everyone has cap space and no worthy superstars to give it to. Really, though, the main point is giving 32-year-old Yao all that money. Tmac is gone, one way or another, no longer than 4 months from now. Yao could become the Rockets Carlos Lee 3 years from now, and that's the decision that is more interesting to me.
I would have a hard time extending Yao as of today. He is just been too injury prone to count on, and while he is unquestionably an all star level player when healthy, I don't consider him a super star who will ever be likely to garner MVP consideration, but he will almost certainly get paid like one. Beyond injuries, his mobility is a big concern. There are games where he has been shut out of the offense for quarters at a time just by fronting him with an average post defender. That's a tougher question. The NBA is a business and as much as every team says they want to win, if Yao = guaranteed money regardless of wins, then that makes it tough to let him go. I certainly don't think he should be considered untradeable from a strictly basketball perspective though. I don't think Bosh is a MVP candidate hall of famer level player or he would have had more playoff success in the weak East, but he could be great with another star or two on the team ala KG with the Celtics. Imagine Yao, Iggy, Bosh with the majority of the current supporting cast intact. Even if you had to give up both Brooks and Landry, but kept Lowry and Scola with that line up I think you would be a top contender. Hard to say without knowing what the Rockets are truthfully being offered and willing to give up vs what rumors we as fans hear.
my opinion wont be popular but do nothing until summer 2011,let battier/tmac/lowry/scola/anderson all expire ,then package landry and brooks for a superstar,then use the money from those expirings to sign another superstar yao 20,000,000 bosh 20,000,000(from landry and brooks trade this summer) deron williams 15,000,000(from battier,tmac,lowry,scola expirings)
I feel the same way about Bosh...and isn't that how we got into this mess with Tmac in the first place? I just don't feel that anyone available, in trade or FA, other than LeBron or Wade, has the ability to be one of those top-10 guys who historically win all the rings. I really don't care much if it's Bosh or Iggy, because I don't see either as more than Yao's support. But if Yao becomes the salary-albatross I think he will, we will be stuck in lottery hell forever with Bosh/Amare/Iggy/whoever as the #1 option.
Too early to tell about Yao. We will know more after next season. He may be done for good, or he may come back and dominate, you just don't know.
Your hits just keep coming. We can't field a team with just 3 players regardless of how they hung like :grin:
I don't think it's too early to know some things about Yao: - He cannot impose his will on a game when needed. For all his talent and dedication, his lack of mobility will forever leave him vulnerable to the fronting defenses he has seen his whole career. LA used this extensively after game 1 last year, and it worked as AB had to carry the load in at least one game before Yao went down. Championships are hard to win when your best player can't even touch the ball in crunch time. - He, like all giants before him, has foot/leg problems which will only get worse. Even in his 20's, Yao has missed almost as much time as he has played. Adjusting his considerable contract demands a year from now to a per-game basis, based on his durability history, we can reasonably expect to pay him as a $40M player for the games he actually plays.
Resigning Yao depends on three things: (1) Cap space in 2011. (2) Free agents in 2011. (3) His feet after the 2010-2011 season. If we have a lot of cap space by letting him go and there are better free agents available, I'm fine with letting Yao walk. That being said, not having a big paint protector like Yao is decimating to our defense this year, and will be every other year without Yao or someone similar. We will have to replace that commodity, at the very least, if we elect to choose another free agent. In reality, it's too early to say whether we should re-sign Yao in 2011 or not. I'm pretty sure he'll be exercising his player option for 2010-2011, so we should put off this discussion for another year.
Trading Yao is not a real option for Les or the Rockets. We're talking about millions of YOF in China who will take that move as a sign of disrespect.
I have been saying the same thing.......it is the reason I want to keep Shane over Trevor..... Because Shane expires with Yao.......it is not this year or next year that Morey is thinking about. It is the year after....imo. DD
So if you agree that Morey actually has a 2-3 year plan, who do you suspect he is targeting? Or, more to the point, who do you think of those who look to be available after 2011/12 will actually be available, and why? Who would YOU target?
