[Seeding Scenarios] San/Utah/Hou/Phx

I just was informed recently that San Antonio will go all-out against the Jazz tonight even playing Manu Ginobili who has been sidelined the last two games.

Seems like San Antonio will prefer having HCA over choosing who they play.

 

If I were SA, I'd rest the banged up players they have and lose tonight. Houston/Utah is easier than Phoenix for them, homecourt or not.

 

This one is from the Rockets' website.

The Rockets probably won't know who or where they'll be playing in the playoffs until the regular season comes to an end on Wednesday. But assuming the New Orleans Hornets win one of their final two games to avoid the congestion, the Rockets will likely have either the fifth or sixth seed in the Western Conference.

Here's how the race could play out:
If the Rockets win and ...

Utah and Phoenix win: The Rockets, Jazz, Suns and Spurs would wind up in a four-way tie for the third best record. The Jazz would win the first tiebreaker as the Northwest Division champions. The other three teams would be in a tiebreaker against each other. In head-to-head matchups against one another, Phoenix is 5-3, Houston is 4-4 and San Antonio is 3-5. The Suns win and would get a chance to move up to No. 3 in a head-to-head tiebreaker with Utah. But Phoenix loses that tie. That would pit Phoenix and Houston in the No. 4 vs. No. 5 matchup. With yet another tiebreaker, the Rockets host the Suns with a better conference record. The Rockets would be fifth with home-court advantage against Phoenix.

Utah wins and Phoenix loses: The Jazz, Spurs and Rockets would be tied for third. San Antonio has a better division record than Houston, earning a top four seed. But the Jazz would have the head-to-head series over the Spurs by winning on Wednesday night, earning the No. 3 spot. The Rockets would be fifth beginning the first round in San Antonio.

Phoenix wins and Utah loses: The Rockets and Suns would be tied for the fourth best record in the West, but the Jazz have to be a top-four seed by virtue of winning the Northwest. The Rockets win the tie over Phoenix with a better conference record. Houston would be fifth with home-court advantage over Utah.

Utah and Phoenix lose: The Rockets would have the fourth-best record in the league, but can't pass Utah since the Jazz are a division winner. The Rockets would be fifth with home-court advantage over Utah.
If the Rockets lose and ...

Utah and Phoenix win: The Jazz, Suns and Spurs would be tied for the third-best record with the Rockets lingering a game behind. Utah owns tiebreakers over San Antonio and Phoenix to claim third, while Phoenix takes the tie over the Spurs. The Rockets would be sixth beginning the playoffs at Utah.

Utah wins and Phoenix loses: The Jazz and Spurs would be tied for the third best record, with Utah moving up by taking the season series over San Antonio. Houston, tied with the Suns for the No. 5 spot, would finish ahead of Phoenix with a better conference record. The Rockets would be fifth beginning the playoffs at San Antonio.

Phoenix wins and Utah loses: The Rockets would have the fifth-best record with Utah, but would be a game behind Phoenix and San Antonio. The Jazz remain a top four seed by winning the Northwest. The Rockets would be sixth beginning the playoffs at San Antonio.

Utah and Phoenix lose: The Rockets would be tied with Phoenix and Utah for the fourth best record. The Rockets can't claim the No. 4 seed over Utah, but would take fifth with a better conference record than the Suns. Utah, however, won the head-to-head with Houston. The Rockets would be fifth beginning the playoffs at Utah.

 

I am cheering for the rockets win jazz win suns win scenario. I don't want to play utah even with homecourt. I want phx with homecourt. because if we lose a game or 2 at toyota center we can still win the series against phx somehow. but if we lose just ONE game at home against the jazz say goodnight

 

I think this is the smart choice for them. They are the oldest team in the nba and need to travel less to win.

 

Yeah we're going to get owned by the Jazz. Might as well try our luck against Phoenix. Don't we get HCA over them though since we own the tiebreaker?

HCA against the SUNS is the best chance we have to get out of the first round this season. HCA against the Jazz is our second best. We have to win tonight no matter what.

 

yes we would have homecourt against suns since we own the tie breaker

 

I don't know ... we usually play better on the road, except in high altitude. The officiating in Utah is what would worry me more.

But, I'm not sure any of the options are good. Shaq really steps up in the playoffs. Just because we stepped it up and beat them, doesn't mean we'd do that in a playoff series. Phoenix will be scarier to me than LA, and I think it is most probable to be one of those 2 teams in the end.

To be honest, for some reason we play San Antonio very well, although we are without Bonzi. Our young guys could probably wear them out. Even without home court, they might be our better options, only a few hours away. And, it would give us significant credibility to knock out the champs.

Many are saying that Utah is the best team in the West right now. I guess home court would help, and it would be great to pay them back for last year ... but I see that as the least appealing, although most probable of all the scenarios.

 

As crazy as it may sound I think i'm kind of hoping we play San Antonio at this point.

 

ESPN has the following written:

Phoenix gets home court first round with win and Spurs loss.


How is that possible?

I think ESPN has got it wrong.. again.

 

I'm already so tired of pontificating on who we're gonna meet and how we'll match up I don't even care anymore. Everyone is gonna be writing us off even before the first jumpball gets tossed up so we have no pressure to win more than maybe one game in the series anyways. So whichever team is licking their chops tonight to be rewarded with a first round matchup with us, Bring It.

Let's see if you can still manufacture points out of your 3rd and 4th options when our lockdown D cancels out options 1 & 2. Let's see if you can contain McGrady, who will be hands down the most difficult player to stop from scoring in any of the proposed series. And then let's see if you can consistently keep Scola/Landry/Hayes off the glass if you are indeed able to get McGrady to miss. Let's see if your mental toughness can match up with a team that just won 22 straight.

For all his stubbornness and faults, JVG was still a basketball genius. So as JVG would say right now, "we are what we are." Sure we are without Yao and have myriad weaknesses. But we have still won 54-55 games and in the process won a bunch of big games - going away in blowouts mind you. NO, Denver, LAL, Phoenix. And McGrady had 46 to blowout Utah in it's home opener, a game in which Yao was barely a factor and sat most of the 4th in fact. SA? They just got blown out by the same Fakers we blew out last month. The point is, this team even without Yao is just as dangerous as any other in the top 7...

 

Amen brother...

You would think for a Rockets fan site we could get more of this talk as opposed to all the TMac sucks threads we get weekly.

 

Uh...we do not play better on the road. Check our home and away records and you will see otherwise. We are better road team than many NBA teams, but our home record, especially as of late has been oustanding and we are averaging over 11 ppg margin of victory at home since the beginning of the streak.

Whatever the case, the absolute worse situation we could get into is to open in Utah. As much as the Rockets have tried to mess it up the last two games, I still think the Rockets will get HCA. Phoenix and Houston will both win tonight. And as I read the above explanation that means HCA for the Rockets either against the Suns or Jazz.

 

Yes, but playing the Lakers in the second round is not easier than playing New Orleans. San Antonio needs to end up at #3 to increase their chances of repeating.

 

I agree, but what really concerns me about the Rockets are the recent rash of injuries. It is hard to play your best basketball when you get banged up like this. Rafer's injury hurts. People can hate on Rafer all they want, but the Rockets were at their best when he was (check his stats during the streak). Of course, that Bobby Jackson trade is looking more brilliant every day. This is exactly the scenario Morey had in mind when he pulled the trigger on that deal. Bobby is much more valuable than Bonzi right now. Of course, it all would have been a moot point if Francis and James wouldn't have sucked and/or got hurt.

 

Maybe this has already been posted somewhere, but I'd love to see what the Rockets record is since acquiring TMac vs. the Spurs, Jazz and Suns.

Just seems that we don't match up well with any of those three teams.....I'd almost rather play anyone else in the WC.

 

It wouldn't be a very good record, but part of that is simply those teams have been better teams recently. Utah, of course, has really come on in the last two years. I believe we now match up better with San Antonio and Phoenix than we used to, but only with Yao.

Utah is tough because of Deron Williams and we have no one to guard Boozer. Of course, they have no one to guard Yao or T-Mac. When we are healthy, we are now better than the Jazz I believe. We have much more flexibility in our attack on the Jazz than last year's team. If we had Yao, I believe we would be the favorites to win the West, even if the media would be slow to recognize it.

 

Based on my calculations, here are the probabilities of the 4 possible scenarios:

Rockets vs. Utah (Rockets HCA): 37%
Rockets vs. Utah (Utah HCA): 13%
Rockets vs. SA (Rockets HCA): 28%
Rockets vs. SA (SA HCA): 22%

I used the following probabilistic assumptions:
Rockets win tonight - 75%
Utah wins tonight - 50% (therefore, SA win is also 50%)
Phoenix wins tonight - 75%

Pretty encouraging results. According to this, we have a 65% chance to having a homecourt advantage. We'll see what happens.

 

i think your 3rd scenario is supposed to be w/ Phoenix not SA