season will end with less than 50 Ws, 50 Ws, or 50+Ws?

46-48 wins.

 

I predict 49 wins
33 loses

 

Most of the games left are road games against Western teams. Impossible to get 14:6 record. I will be happy if they can break even.

 

14-6 (to win 50) is just too much to ask considering 11 of last 16 on the road and the quality of opponents.

 

I say they break even (10-10) or slightly better (11-9) and finish with 46-47 wins. That will be good enough for the 7th seed in the playoffs.

 

48-34 7th seed.

DD

 

Before the season I predicted 48 wins.

 

If you look at the Sagarin ranking of schedule strength of finished games, Rockets ranked 13th of 29 teams. This compared to 7th of Memphis, 12th of Denver, 1st of Jazz, 9th for Blazers. So relatively speaking, Rockets have a tougher schedule compared to rest of the teams in WC playoff hunt.


NBA 2003-2004 thru Sunday, March 7, 2004
HOME ADVANTAGE= 3.24 RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | ELO CHESS | PREDICTOR
1 Sacramento Kings = 96.61 46 16 89.75( 21) 12 7 | 23 12 | 96.49 1 | 96.72 1
2 San Antonio Spurs = 95.38 42 21 90.27( 10) 11 12 | 23 15 | 94.76 5 | 96.18 2
3 Indiana Pacers = 95.33 47 16 89.44( 26) 11 6 | 19 11 | 96.27 2 | 94.64 4
4 Minnesota Timberwolves = 95.33 44 19 89.93( 14) 13 9 | 22 13 | 95.34 3 | 95.31 3
5 Los Angeles Lakers = 94.40 41 21 90.47( 6) 11 12 | 20 16 | 94.78 4 | 94.04 6
6 Dallas Mavericks = 94.16 39 23 90.52( 4) 14 10 | 25 16 | 93.98 6 | 94.33 5
7 Detroit Pistons = 93.36 41 25 89.77( 19) 7 12 | 16 17 | 92.99 8 | 93.77 7
8 Memphis Grizzlies = 93.29 39 24 90.46( 7) 13 9 | 21 19 | 93.59 7 | 93.00 9
9 New Jersey Nets = 92.91 38 24 89.73( 22) 5 13 | 12 19 | 92.75 9 | 93.07 8
10 Houston Rockets = 92.34 36 26 90.17( 13) 8 15 | 15 21 | 92.29 10 | 92.38 10
NBA 2003-2004 thru Sunday, March 7, 2004
HOME ADVANTAGE= 3.24 RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | ELO CHESS | PREDICTOR
11 Denver Nuggets = 90.73 33 31 90.20( 12) 8 18 | 16 20 | 90.63 11 | 90.82 11
12 Milwaukee Bucks = 90.50 33 29 89.43( 27) 8 12 | 11 18 | 90.27 13 | 90.72 12
13 Utah Jazz = 89.93 31 32 90.63( 1) 10 17 | 16 23 | 90.40 12 | 89.46 14
14 New Orleans Hornets = 89.79 33 30 89.41( 29) 8 13 | 13 15 | 90.05 14 | 89.52 13
15 Portland Trail Blazers = 89.12 30 33 90.39( 9) 11 14 | 14 23 | 89.72 15 | 88.48 18
16 Seattle SuperSonics = 88.70 27 36 90.45( 8) 9 17 | 14 22 | 88.54 16 | 88.85 16
17 Golden State Warriors = 88.67 25 36 90.52( 3) 7 18 | 15 26 | 88.13 19 | 89.17 15
18 New York Knicks = 88.50 29 35 89.80( 18) 5 16 | 9 24 | 88.53 17 | 88.46 19
19 Miami Heat = 88.27 27 36 89.87( 16) 4 17 | 10 23 | 87.98 20 | 88.54 17
20 Los Angeles Clippers = 88.09 26 36 90.48( 5) 4 20 | 12 28 | 88.34 18

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/nba0304.htm

 

46 wins sounds about right to me.

 

6-14 the rest of the way isn't out of the question

 

I hold to my preseason prediction of 51 wins and 31 losses.

 

you're running out of games, huh?

 

I predicted 50 before the season started, NUMEROUS times, so you could definitely find it on a thread somewhere. We're at 36 wins and of the remaining games, I figure us winning 16 of them, give or take 2 - so about 14-18 games. That will put as at 50-54 wins. The Rockets will get 50 wins.

 

Everyone seems to be bringing up the fact that 11 of our last 16 are on the road. Those games are relatively easy with the exception of the Kings, Lakers and Grizzlies. We can easily go 7-4 on these road games. The home games are also pretty easy with the exception of the Twolves, Kings, Mavs and Grizzlies. Lets say we win one of those games (we probably will win 2 or even three of them) which puts our home record at 6-3. Meaning that the worst we could feasibly do is 13-7. And this is being pessimistic.
50 wins seems very reasonable.

 

I then think that the Grizzlies will finish the season 12-7.
This would put the Grizzlies at 51-31 and the Rockets at 50-32. One game out of the 6th seed for the Rockets.

 

we'd probably lose the tie breaker to em anyway

 

ack

delete this post please.

 

hmm I think its possible to achieve in the higher 40's for the win total

we "could" crack 50, but I don't see that happening for a year or two.

47-49