A year ago, almost to the day I started a very similar thread about Ron Artest's impending free agency, link. When many thought he would sign for as much as $10-12M, I predicted the MLE and was proven correct. This year I'm hearing a lot of the same inflated predictions concerning Luis Scola's new contract. The difference between last summer and this one is that this summer, teams are looking to spend. However, Scola will find some of the same problems that Artest encountered when looking for a new contract. The main problem that most people seem to overlook is that in order for Luis to earn more than the MLE, he must get an offer from a team with cap space. Let's take a look at the market... Heat - $43M Knicks - $34M Nets - $33M Bulls - $29M Clippers - $17M Kings - $15M Bucks - $9M (after gooden signing) Celtics - $10M Wizards - $7M * from ESPN's Free Agency Dime Wolves - $14M (after darko signing) Thunder - $8M Grizzlies - could have up to $17M if they renounce their rights to Gay and Brewer (edit: they just renounced their rights to brewer). *those last 3 teams I had to research on my own, so if my numbers are off feel free to provite a correction. First off, the Clippers (Griffin), Kings (Thompson/Landry), Wolves (Love/Jefferson), and Grizzlies (Randolph) have no need for Scola and no reason to use cap space on him. Secondly, rebuilding teams who aren’t in the running for a top tier free agent (Wizards, Bucks) will not consider spending their cap space to rebuild around a 30 year old complimentary player. Now lets look at the free agent arms race between the Heat, Bulls, Nets, and Knicks. With so many variables up in the air it’s impossible to project which combination of players will end up where, and who will still be in need of a PF when it’s all settled. A simple way to look at it is by asking two questions. 1. If this team strikes out on the max players, will they be interested in Scola anyway? The answer for all 4 teams should be “No.” based on the fact that they would all be rebuilding. As I stated earlier, rebuilding teams will not consider spending their cap space to rebuild around a 30 year old complimentary player. It just doesn’t happen. Scola would be a great fit on the Bulls or Heat, but if they can’t land another star I think they would rather develop young talent for the future than remain in mediocrity. 2. If this team lands a max player, are they willing to give Scola a portion of their other max contract? I think in all 4 cases the answer again is “No.” Simply put, these teams will not want to split their cap space between Scola and another PF. That's just not how you build a team. These teams will only be interested in Scola if they have signed a star perimeter player like Lebron, Wade, or Johnson. Even still, I don't think any team will want to build around Johnson and Scola with both around 30 years old. Any team that gets Wade or Lebron will have other, better options (Bosh, Dirk, Amare, Boozer, Lee). Even if Boozer and Dirk stay with their current teams, Scola is the 4th best big with only 2 teams (where ever Lebron and Wade go) looking to add a post player. This market is saturated with PF's and Scola is too low on the pecking order to get a chance with any of these teams. That leaves 2 interesting teams. The Celtics and the Thunder. The Celtics are most likely very interested in retaining Pierce and Allen. Signing either one would definitely lower their cap space beneath that of what the MLE would be. So signing Scola to more than the MLE is slim to none… except… Since they can exceed the salary cap to resign their own players, maybe they feel like they can try to use their cap space on scola, then resign their players. I could see them being interested in Scola as a reserve since they are in a “win-now” mode. But this is VERY unlikely. If they lose either free agent, they will probably go into rebuild mode… and if they spend time courting Luis, and waiting for Morey to match or not, their free agents may be courted by other teams. Then you are stuck rebuilding with Scola on a new fat contract. Too risky. So what about the Thunder? This is the only real possibility I can see. They’ve got about $8M and are in need of a low post presence. They are a young team, but can contend with the right pieices… Scola might be one of those pieces. It’s not a given that they offer him any money. Maybe they want to keep Green starting at PF. Maybe they like having a spread 4 instead of a post 4. It may not be very likely that they offer him more than the MLE, but it’s a possibility, and IMO the only real possibility for anyone offering him more than the MLE. In conclusion, I would say it's a safe bet that Luis signs an MLE offer. The contract may be longer than the Rockets would like, but the salary is such a steal that it's worth paying him an extra year or two.
But what about Lowry? And the problem is that Luis does not have Ron Ron's salty reputation. I guess we shall have to wait and see what the market bares. Nice analysis though. DD
thank you DD. of course, i did say that anything is possible... so only time will tell for sure, but i wouldn't bet on anything more than MLE. and Lowry is another story all together. same obvious rule applies. in order for him to earn more than the MLE one of those teams with cap space needs to make him an offer. the only teams in real need of a PG are the heat, knicks, kings, and grizzlies. would any of them pay him more than $6M? Again, in order to make that offer to him they would need to split up their second max contract. I just don't think it's worth it when you have all-stars available to sign.
Very good analysis. I agree with you 100%. I would expect scola sign a 5 year MLE money contract with us. We may do S&T with him also. As for Lowry, I would be shocked if he can earn a MLE contract from other teams. He is a good player, but is an undersized, backup pg without outside shooting ability. We will resign him at 9-12M/3years.
The Darko and Gooden deals aren't that bad. They're both in the $5 million range. Even if Scola gets a better offer than that, I wouldn't expect it to be twice as good. So we might be looking in the $6-8 million range for Scola. I could live with that.
those deals are raising the price for scola, but only in theory. in reality he still needs a team with cap space (teams listed in the first post) to offer him more than the MLE. if none of them are interested in him (for reasons mentioned in the first post) then he doesn't get an offer larger than the MLE.
What if Morey made a deal with the Knicks GM saying you can't make an offer to Scola or Lowry just to get an advantage in the 2011/2012 swapping of picks...
Before last season, I wouldve said scola was a mle player,but i now see him as a 7m a yr player. Now maybe not for 6yrs,but i can see a 4yr 30m deal for scola. I think he will take the qualifying and being free next yr.
I could see Chicago offering Scola a contract around where OKC could offer. I expect teams with cap space that lose out in FA front loading some contracts like Scola's. This way, next season they have a skilled player at a desired contract as a trade asset.
Yea, I'm not as confident about the teams that fail in the big FA bonaza having no interest in Scola. Sure, it'd be smart to stay away from win now type players if you can't win now, but GMs are going to pressured to have something to show for there efforts. They don't want to walk away from the summer of love with nothing. Better to sign a guy that can come close 20 and 10 for the sake of fan support, then have a minor league team for a year....could be the thinking anyway.
I don't think teams will beat around the bush and end up doing the work for Morey who can match any offer. You won't see a $9 million offer like the one Landry got. Teams will offer a large contract to Scola and try to snag him away.
Exactly, you will see a $9 million a year contract, trying to force the Rockets into matching...knowing that the Lux tax will cost the Rox double that to sign him. DD
Really? I don't see it. The most I see Scola getting offered by an opposing team is 4 years $30 mil. no team will offer him a 5 year deal unless it's and MLE.
