NBA-Draft-Guide-REAL-7.pdf (theathletic.com) Pass: Dr@ft2024 The uncertainty of this draft makes it interesting. Even if lacking the elite prospects this class remains intriguing. I'd love to walk out with Sheppard or Clingan but it seems hardly a guarantee either would be available. Particularly Sheppard, at this point I'd almost assume he won't be but again...the uncertainty of this draft. Nabbing a mountain on legs like Clingan for backup 5 duties would also be sweet. If we can't bomb 3s, get the guy who can shut down a paint. I think Knecht would be a great addition and fit to our current roster too. His scoring package is slick as snot and I think Ime could get the defender in him to rise. I think the storyline of taking Shead in the 2nd round would be pretty sweet too but for 2nd round picks, I'm not even close to researched enough to make big comments. Just think it would be cool to keep Shead in the H. So my big board... Sheppard, Clingan, Knecht. A 41 win team with the #3 pick. What a luxury man. Can't wait for this next iteration of the squad!
Free Athletic access? I wish I could like OP 10 times. Very very interesting that even the top prospect in this class is only tier 3 in his system. For reference here are some rankings from the last few lotteries that I found on reddit: Tier 1 2019 Ant, Lamelo Haliburton, Vassel 2020 Cade, Mobley, Giddey, Franz 2021 Paolo, Chet, Jdub, Ivey 2022 Wemby, Scoot, Cam, Amen Tier 2 2019 Pat Williams, Okongwu, Okoro 2020 Jalen Green, Suggs, Barnes 2021 Sharpe, Jabari, Keegan 2022 Brandon Miller, Jarace Walker, Anthony Black Tier 3 2019 Wiseman, Toppin, Avdija, Nesmith 2020 Duarte, Moody, Kuminga, Davion Mitchell 2021 Mathurin, Duren, Dyson Daniels, Sochan 2022 Dick, Buffkin, Lively, Hendricks So he's saying that he believes that the absolute best players in this draft are only on that Tier 3 level. This doesn't mean that none of them can be stars but he just doesn't think it's likely. I dunno, looking back at that list he looks pretty accurate so far. The draft his a crapshoot but he's done pretty well historically.
I found it on a NBA reddit post, but I figured I would share the good fortune with my homies. It's an absolute book but it's a cool read and very well researched. Seeing those tier lists, as if we didn't already know but what a crapshoot. And what great fortune we've had in this draft game for 4 consecutive offseasons. I think what we have is special and why I want to see it play out more than I want to start trading everyone.
You're a legend for this, I got to the part about tiers and thought "that's annoying, now I need to look up where he had our guys" so thanks for that. Interesting though, Alpi nowhere to be seen, he really was SO underrated coming into the draft. Edit: Reading this has my head all confused now, I was told I was making stuff up listing all of these weaknesses for Reed Sheppard and hadn't actually watched the tape. Now I think it's probably just the idiotic homers trying to gaslight. How embarrassing.
Well Givony did have him #2 and I think I remember KOC had him around top 7 if I recall correctly. Vecenie seems like a physical measurable so I understand why he doesn't have Alpi very high. Looking back at the list I posted, I think he did pretty well overall given how random drafts can be sometimes. If anyone wants to doubt the work from these "draft only" guys like Vecenie, Givony, Woo, just look at this absolute unit of a document. That's not something you can put together just watching highlights during draft season. That's a labor of love that's the product of hours and hours of footage on every single prospect over several years even. If he says that there are no tier 1 or 2 prospects this year, I'm inclined to believe him.
Oh yeah don't get me wrong, that list is very close to how things have panned out so far for sure. It was more a comment on how Alpi slipped so far under the radar. And yeah this doc is phenomenal, really shows you how amateur the CF "experts" really are in comparison tbh. Awesome resource shared by the OP.
He had cam at Tier 1?? He had Jalen Green at Tier 2... He had Giddey at Tier 1? He had Haliburton at Tier 1... he had Amen at Tier 1? in other words, he has some hits and some misses... like everyone else
Measurables? Where are the scouts measuring HEARTS??? From that measurable it appears TheGoodGuys have some hits. Starting with Alpi. One whose talent I believed would play didn’t, certainly has not yet. And he’s gone. KMj? I believe he has a rotational future because I believe he’ll grab it.
I think this segment on his weaknesses may prove instructive as to why I believe some are over-hyping Sheppard: I think it's fair to doubt that he can be a primary ball-handler at point guard and I also think it's fair to have some real questions about his on-ball defense despite the eye-popping stock numbers. I'm not saying he can't be a lead guard or that won't figure out how to be an above-average defender in the NBA, but there's some real, significant development that needs to happen for him as a ballhandler and defender to reach those outcomes, and I would consider them on the lower-end percentage wise. That said, he's still a very good prospect, and even if he only reaches his "roleplayer" floor, I think his strengths are a great fit on our roster, and I'll be totally fine with us picking him if that is the direction the front office goes.
Im super high on Sheppard, but I don’t expect him to be a guy you regularly give the ball to and expect him to create offense in iso situations. That’s not his game and really there’s only a few guys in the nba that create offense like that in a highly efficient manner. I’ve got no doubt he can be the primary ball handler as a guard, but I don’t think he needs to be. I also don’t get the knock about needing a ball screen to get penetration. 1) I don’t think that he CANT penetrate one on one at time. There’s film of him doing it, but even the best ball handlers in the nba use the hell out of screens. Like Luka…he may be the best iso player in the league right now and he uses picks more than he ISO’s. If you can operate highly efficiently on screens that’s a good thing. And I don’t know that people are overhyping him but rather many feel like he’s the gem at the top of THIS draft. Even the guy who wrote all those weaknesses has him as his second rated prospect in this draft. I just don’t think there’s anything “wrong” with the way he plays offense. As far as his on ball defense, I would say that’s the weakest part of his game but I don’t think he’s a sieve there. He will get stronger. He will get more disciplined with proper coaching. He won’t ever be 6’7” with a 7’ wingspan though. But he is a playmaker on defense and looks to not be a complete turnstile out there. If we draft him, I’d imagine he could learn a lot about playing defense at his size from Fred. But back to the main ball handler stuff because I feel that’s where the biggest disconnect is… Reed isn’t kyrie or AI or Curry…he’s not as shifty as even his teammate dillangham (though overall more effective)…but there’s levels to things. Some folks are acting like this guy is Jabari when it comes to dribbling a basketball. He’s a fully capable ball handler. He needs to get better but he’s got a good foundation to work with there. If he is able to build on his driving ability and get better, then I think he has a chance to be one of those guys that turn out better than many predicted his ceiling would be. If not I think he’ll still be pretty damn good just maybe not Star level.
And yet I get attacked by the Sengtards for saying these exact things as his weaknesses and told "you're a liar." Probably why the thread's so quiet, they can't just try and shout it down with herd-bullshit this time
Sam puts in a lot of work - watches a lot of tape and talks to a lot of scouts and basketball people. He isn’t perfect but he is honest about his hits and misses and his approach.
Funny that an actual discussion on the basis of a well researched document doesn’t do it for the hivemind.
It got posted a bit in other threads when it came out on Friday, so that might be part of it (though there wasn't a ton of discussion about it then either).
FINALLY got out - Sam has been teasing it for weeks. Not sure what is going on at the Athletic post NYT acquisition but it seems like a bit of a waste to publish this less than a week before the draft.
