SA, PHX, Dallas, Houston - side by side comparison

Have we closed the talent gap? That’s the question. Let’s take a look. The way I see it, we now have talent that is just short of the elite. The good (and bad) thing is that their upside is pretty well known, but it's set pretty damn high. (Separate question for a separate thread – whether Adelman can make these talented players into a team that is greater or equal to the sum of its parts).

From a purely talent/roster perspective, the hallmarks of the elite teams are (i) Max contracts given to players that play up to or beyond that level; and (ii) substantial number of rotation players that produce beyond their salaries.

SA: They are the champs for good reason. Duncan is a max player producing beyond his contract. Parker and Ginobli contribute beyond their substantial salaries. Key rotation players (especially playoff rotation players) like Finley, Oberto, Horry and Bowen all produce beyond their salaries. (Have you seen these reasonable salaries?) (Splitter stashed away for the future also) Add an outstanding coaching staff, and these players form a team that enjoys more synergy than anyone. AI could argue that SA has less pure talent than PHX and Dallas. Only Brent Barry stands out as a player that doesn’t play up to his salary.

Dallas: Dirk the MVP flamed out in the postseason, but produced beyond his contract in the regular season. Terry, Stackhouse and Howard are in the 8-10MM range IIRC, and present fair production for that price. The horrible contract is Dampier, but the Cuban factor keeps that from holding the team back much. The other rotation players all produce at or in excess of their contracts: Devin Harris, Diop, Mbenga and George. AJ has done a good job with implementing defense, post season brain lock notwithstanding. It’s not hard to see why Dallas will be a perennial contender. They don’t have an aging Nash to worry about.

PHX: Nash, Stoudamire and Marion have high end contracts and generally produce at or, in marion’s case, somewhat short of their contract values. Barbosa, Diaw, Bell and now Grant Hill all present excellent values (less so Hill, IMO), particularly Bell and Barbosa. That’s seven rotation players that play at or near their contract values (Nash above his). Clearly, this team needs more interior presence, but from a pure contract/talent perspective, it’s guaranteed to be among the elite as long as Nash holds up. This team trails SA and Dallas in terms of coaching and quality of front office, but it’s elite. Let’s see if Kerr and cheap ownership can maintain it.

With this in mind, let’s consider the Rockets:

Yao and Tmac: They are producing up to their max contracts, especially relative to some of the other crazy max or high dollar contracts out there.
Battier: like him or not, he consistently produces at or near his reasonable contract.
SF3, Wells, Scola: Here are the big swing factors. These three are the keys. They have low contracts and could easily outperform their salaries by a significant margin. They could also be worthless (less so for Scola I think).
James: IMO, he will produce at or near his contract, particularly considering the crazy salaries being thrown at PG’s. Debatable point here.
Butler, Hayes and Head: They may become more fringe rotation players, but they play up to or above their salaries.

From a talent/value perspective, we have the potential to reach the elite, whereas the elite know what they have and what they will get from their folks. In many respects, their upside is defined (at a high level) while ours is not.

Will Battier, SF3, James, Wells, Scola and Hayes produce enough to match:

SA: Ginobli, Bowen, Oberto, Finley, Horry
Dal: Howard, Stackhouse, Harris, Diop, Mbenga, George
PHX: Marion, Barbosa, Diaw, Bell, Hill

The talent levels are fairly close, except their third best player is substantially better than ours. As far as ranking the top 2 go to players, I'd rank them as follows: Duncan/Parker, Yao/Tmac, Nash/Stoudamire, Novitski/Terry. My best attempt to project actual production (rather than talent) of the entire teams (not just supporting cast) would rank them in this order: SA, Dal, Phx, Hou.

But our upside remains undefined. Adelman will be key. I predict Mike James will be huge for us. He will close games as PG because he has the ability to defend and is the better outside shooter.

 

anyone know how long after the talent was assembled that it took Adelman to bring Portland and Sacto to the conf finals?