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Rumor: Microsoft Will NOT Release Blu-Ray Player for 360

Discussion in 'BBS Hangout' started by A_3PO, Feb 21, 2008.

  1. A_3PO

    A_3PO Member

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    Maybe this can get everyone back on the subject.

    http://www.thestreet.com/s/blu-ray-...lysis/techsoftware/10404412.html?puc=googlefi

    Blu-ray Victory Won't Budge Microsoft
    Priya Ganapati
    02/21/08 - 03:08 PM EST

    Despite the emergence of Sony'sSNE Blu-ray high-definition video format as the new industry standard, MicrosoftMSFT is likely to go its own way, analysts say.

    Instead of offering a Blu-ray player as an accessory to Xbox 360 buyers, Microsoft, which was closely identified with the HD DVD high-definition format, hopes to win the battle for the digital living room by developing its Xbox Live online download service.

    That strategy is designed to get consumers to bypass standalone players and hooked to downloading high-definition video content, analysts say.

    Microsoft is unlikely to ever manufacture a Blu-ray player itself, says Matt Rosoff, an analyst with Directions on Microsoft, an independent research firm. "Historically Microsoft hasn't been willing to pay royalties," he explains, "so they will never build a Blu-ray player directly into the Xbox."

    To be sure, Microsoft was taken back last week when Toshiba announced it was abandoning the HD DVD format. Both companies were identified with the format, but the Redmond, Wash.-based software giant had cleverly hedged its bets.

    Unlike Sony, Microsoft didn't build a high-definition player into its console systems. Instead it sold the HD DVD players as an accessory to the Xbox 360.

    As of November, 269,000 HD DVD add-ons to the Xbox 360 console were sold since the launch a year ago, representing a 3.4% attach rate, according to a report in High-Def digest. Overall 750,000 HD DVD players were sold as of November, said the North American HD DVD Promotional Group.

    That's just a fraction of the total Xbox 360 user base. "Microsoft's commitment to HD DVD has been never 100%," says David Mercer, principal analyst for Strategy Analytics. "They have always treated it as an accessory to the game console business, which has been their priority."

    Not surprisingly, Microsoft has tried to downplay its HD DVD commitment since Toshiba's announcement last week that it was dropping the format.

    "We do not believe the recent reports about HD DVD will have any material impact on the Xbox 360 platform or our position in the marketplace," Microsoft said in a statement. "It is games that sell consoles."

    For the last few years, Microsoft has been quietly building out its Xbox Live marketplace, offering games, TV shows, movies for download. The service has more than 10 million users now, most of whom use it to play games online.

    Xbox Live could now become the cornerstone of Microsoft's strategy against Blu-ray.

    "The fundamental problem with Blu-ray from the Microsoft point of view is that it uses Java from SunJAVA," says Mercer. "I don't think Microsoft will ever introduce a Blu-ray player for the Xbox. They will just concentrate on downloads."

    Microsoft had a long-standing battle with Sun over the licensing and integration of Java in its products and later built its own competing products, virtual machine and virtual J++, a Java development tool.

    Microsoft could choose to build on Xbox Live marketplace, a service it has used to distinguish itself from other console makers. Both Sony and Nintendo have been struggling to strengthen their online offerings.

    "Xbox Live is already the No. 1 source of downloadable high-def content," says Rosoff.

    A partnership with NetflixNFLX to offer more content through the Xbox Live service is also likely, Rosoff says.

    That's why though HD DVD may have lost out to Blu-ray, Microsoft could emerge a winner, analysts say.

    Sony has a long way to go towards building demand for Blu-ray players. Most consumers are happy with the DVD format and convincing them to move to a high-definition player won't be easy.

    "DVD to some extent is a victim of its own success," says Josh Martin, an analyst with The Yankee Group. "Consumers don't see Blu-ray as a substantial leap over DVD, as DVD was over VHS."

    And despite winning the format wars, adoption of Blu-ray players will be slow, says Martin.

    That could play right into Microsoft's strategy, says Martin's colleague, Michael Goodman, an analyst for The Yankee Group who covers games, media and entertainment.

    "Microsoft's thought has always been that the future of movie distribution is not in the player but in digital adoption," says Goodman. "If they can delay Blu-ray adoption, build out Xbox Live and get a segment to download high-def movies, then they have won."
     
  2. Drexlerfan22

    Drexlerfan22 Member

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    This is sooo true.

    VHS-to-DVD was a huge leap, because it meant no more rewinding, chapter skipping, special features, less bulky/lighter, and no more annoying "tracking adjustments."

    Blu-Ray IS nicer, but I myself was not at all convinced it was worth my while before I finally saw a Blu-Ray movie for myself. The only really tangible difference is in picture and sound quality... there aren't any other noticable differences. Just using me as an example, Sony has a bit of an uphill climb as far as generating demand for Blu-Ray players, especially if they stay anywhere near this pricey.

    I do think DD is the future, and it's a good long-term strategy for Microsoft... but I also wonder a little how long it will be before they can expect a majority of the market has the kind of bandwidth to make it attractive.
     
  3. emjohn

    emjohn Member

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    Blu Ray is a substantial leap over DVD, but upconversion narrows that gap in a very big way. Had I not recieved a BR player for XMas, I'd still be sticking it out with upconverting, and be completely happy doing so.

    I don't know how well high def movie downloading will do. Maybe on a rental basis if the cost is low, but when I buy a movie, I want it to be a physical disc.

    Evan
     
  4. Nick

    Nick Member

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    A lot of people said the same thing about LP's, 8-tracks, cassettes, and then CD's... now, they're all gone and nobody is complaining (while everybody is benefiting).
     
  5. Drexlerfan22

    Drexlerfan22 Member

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    Indeed.

    Don't get me wrong, I like physical discs for movies too... but I also used to buy CDs. It's been years and years since I did that.

    I'm sure my attachment to physical copies of movies will go away eventually. The only question about that in my mind isn't IF it will happen, but exactly how long it will take.
     
  6. Joshfast

    Joshfast "We're all gonna die" - Billy Sole
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    Best part of this news is Microsoft will be a huge partner against speed/downlaod caping by ISP's - just a compressed HD movie is about 7 GB right?
     
  7. Drexlerfan22

    Drexlerfan22 Member

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    I'm dearly hoping that's the way it goes, because I could almost seeing it going the other way: ISP caps keep this kind of service from taking off quickly, and/or ISPs take this as an opportunity to jack up their prices. That would be lame.
     
  8. Christopher

    Christopher Member

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    I see all this High Def DVD's and TV's as just a way to get people to pay for upgrades that just are not worth it.

    Ive seen all this hid def stuff myself and its just not impressive. When it comes down to it....its just TV and video.
     
  9. peleincubus

    peleincubus Member

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    your right if you have a ton of money to blow its nice. why not have a awesome tv and sound.

    but when you get down to it a movie is a freaking movie. im happy with average stuff. and with the hard earned money i do have i go on trips out the country.

    personally for me traveling or going kayaking is more memorable then spending that $5000 on a tv.
     
  10. Rocket G

    Rocket G Member

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    Yup.

    And despite what RC Cola said in the other thread, if you have a 360 hooked through HDMI and a good HD tv, you will be hard pressed to tell the diff b/w a DD-HD movie and a BR movie.

    It's just that you have to wait - in my case about 30 minutes - for a movie to download & you don't get to keep it yet. The keeping part will change as time passes and youll keep the files on larger & cheaper removable HD's.

    I don't mind waiting 30 minutes for a $3 HD movie to download. I can hit the gym, run errands, etc, etc in the time that takes. Hell, I can downloadthe damn thing in the background as I play COD4.

    The diff b/w an upscaled DVD and BR is noticeable but not so much that a normal person would leap at the chance of buying a BR player & replacing their entire library.

    BR prices REALLY need to come down soon for it to catch on en masse.

    DD is in no way something for the masses yet. Either is BR.

    In about 5 years both probably will be. BR for those who want to have hard copies of their media, DD for those who don't.

    Hmmmmm... What happens if in a few years you can dload DD and then burn that onto blank BR discs? Might that be feasible down the road?
     
    #10 Rocket G, Feb 21, 2008
    Last edited: Feb 21, 2008
  11. Drexlerfan22

    Drexlerfan22 Member

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    Definitely agreed that neither BR nor DD is something that's prepared to take off as completely mainstream in the here and now.

    However, I tend to think BR has the advantage in the short-term (short-term meaning the next 2, 3, 4 years maybe). I find the idea of way cheaper BR players coming out due to manufacturer competition an extremely likely scenario in the next two years, or even one year. I can't say I believe the same thing about DD being able to go mainstream that soon with the way ISPs have been acting. What if you really like movies, and the downloads are 10GB a pop? I see that problem taking longer to go away than the high cost of a BR player.


    But probably the most interesting thing in all of this to me will be how Sony responds to Microsoft's increased support of DD. As the article says:
    "Xbox Live is already the No. 1 source of downloadable high-def content."

    If I'm Sony, I'm a little worried about that. Notsomuch in the next few years or for this generation of consoles, really... because like I said, I think short-term, BR wins. But look at what Apple did with digital audio. They established the iPod as the accepted "standard" of digital audio players; ditto on the iTunes store. It's not that the iPod is really much better than any other audio players out there, it's just the most established product.

    So what if, while Sony is busy taking advantage of BR, Microsoft is busy establishing themselves as the #1 place to go for DD movie service? If Sony ignores DD right now, they might be digging themselves a big hole. After all, who wants a portable CD player when they can have an mp3 player?
     
  12. A_3PO

    A_3PO Member

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    I'm rooting for DD to ramp up ASAP. I have no desire to own any movies via physical medium or electronically. $3.99 or $4.99 for a movie rental is fine. For few # of movies I want to view a 2nd time down the line, I'll pay again.

    DVDs are already beginning to look like video cassettes to me. I don't want those dinosaurs around cluttering up my space.
     
  13. tulexan

    tulexan Member

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    Yeah, but do you imagine how big of a hard drive you would need to have a library of high def movies?
     
  14. Drexlerfan22

    Drexlerfan22 Member

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    This is what's so crazy to me. Seems like yesterday I was happy with my HUUUUGE 3GB hard drive I had in my desktop computer at home.

    Now, you can buy a 2 TB external HD for $500, and by 2010, we'll see 300 TB hard drives.

    It sounds crazy to me too, but I'd say bandwidth is more the limiting factor for DD than storage space.
     
  15. Invisible Fan

    Invisible Fan Member

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    I'm actually blown away watching 1080p movies in 60fps.

    Yesterday, I watched the Laker-Suns game in HD with my digital tuner. Now, I'm relegated to a 386 kps sopcast feed to get my Rockets fix. Not quite the same as regular TV.

    So I guess the argument is sensible, but for some people who are spoiled with HD, it is worth it.
     
  16. WildSweet&Cool

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    I believe this is a narrow vision from Microsoft.

    It is games that sell gaming consoles. But if that's what Xbox wants to settle for, they'll lose to the Wii, which is a true gaming console and nothing more.

    But that's NOT what xbox is trying to do. They're trying to compete as a media device, which does games, movies, and much more.

    And, because of the HD DVD fiasco, they're now going to lose that battle to the PS3.

    They'd better get their act in gear and rebuild their strategy or they're gonna find themselves in a very bad predicament.
     
  17. tinman

    tinman 999999999
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    some of the high def issues is blamed on the networks and the content providers. lots of artifacts and compression on some broadcasts.

    plus you have to setup your system correctly. you can make
    anything look bad.
     
  18. Coach AI

    Coach AI Member

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    I don't think MS tied themselves anywhere near as strongly to HD-DVD as this article suggests.

    It seems they care more about DD and content through Live.

    Yeah, the had the add-on...but it was an add-on. I just didn't see them really banging the HD media drum (at least not in disc form).

    I could be wrong about this, but I don't think any movies are in 60fps.

    And while I agree about the differences (once you see a movie in HD, you can't unsee it. :D ) I don't think the masses are really going to care much for the differences once you get to the 'HD' level.

    Hell...look at SD on a HDTV. Just seeing that and the 'upconverted', compressed stuff on Comcast's HD channels is a hell of an improvement
     
  19. tinman

    tinman 999999999
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    are you talking about 1080p/24fps

    the more advanced TVs accept the 1080p/24fps signals frm bluray/hddvd. 24fps is the standard for hollywood movies.
    if you set the fps to 24fps, on a tv that cannot accept it, you will get error messages and no picture.

    i think you might be talking about the 1080p movies with the TVs that have the 120hz technology that smooths out the motion.
     
  20. Invisible Fan

    Invisible Fan Member

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    Yeah...movies look sick on it.
     

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