For those of you that can get Rudy's ear (Clutch), he may find this interesting since he doesn't like to draft underclassmen (Rashard Lewis). CORNROW ROULETTE -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- by Terry Brown sportsTALK.com He deals the cards to find the answer; The sacred geometry of chance; The hidden law of a probable outcome; The numbers lead a dance -- Sting, "Shape of My Heart" Pick a number. Any number. Close your eyes and pretend that the 2001 NBA Draft has something to do with diplomas, wingspans, Wunderlick tests and private workouts. Try to convince yourself that the 2001 NBA Draft Lottery won by the Washington Wizards will actually determine who the best players are in this year's crop of aspiring superstars. Cross your fingers and hope that one of the 75 underclassmen who have declared for the draft will make this whole embarrassing situation go away and at this time next year your favorite team will be in the playoffs instead. There's a reason they call it the lottery and it has nothing to do with ping pong balls. Because for every No. 1 pick like Patrick Ewing, there is a Pervis Ellison. For every David Robinson and Shaquille O'Neal, there is a Joe Smith and Michael Olowokandi. For every Chris Webber, Allen Iverson and Tim Duncan, there is a Derrick Coleman. There's a certain karma to the NBA Draft lottery. A weird yin-yang balance that is felt, not explained. An eerie consistency that somehow is always able to dodge the ever growing Greek chorus foretelling the doom of the NBA. You might want to consult the Dalai Lama before you talk to NBA draft guru Marty Blake. After all of the hype, draft camps, palm reading and mock drafts, we can find only one constant. At least three teams will strike it rich in this year's NBA draft lottery and at least three teams will strike out. That's all we know. There hasn't been a lottery since 1991 where there wasn't at least three great players and three big busts. Mark it down. Nothing has changed in 10 years. Why should it change this year? Sure, it's easier and quite fashionable to blame the underclassmen for ruining the draft and, in the process, the NBA. Forget about the fact that the 11-0 Lakers are led by two early entry candidates -- Kobe Bryant and Shaquille O'Neal. And forget about the fact that they'll likely be matched up in the Finals against the league's MVP, another early entry candidate -- Allen Iverson. And while you're at it, forget about the fact that in 1979 Magic Johnson bolted Michigan State after his sophomore year. Or that Isiah Thomas left Indiana as a sophomore in 1981. Or that Chris Webber, everyone's favorite free-agent, left Michigan two years early in 1993. Neither Karl Malone nor Charles Barkley were big critics of underclassmen leaving early back when they did it in the mid-80s. They were simply following the lead of Michael Jordan and Hakeem Olajuwon. Just like Kobe followed KG's lead and Tracy McGrady followed Kobe's. All of the other kids are doing it, and contrary to popular belief, it is statistically safer to choose an underclassman over a college senior in the draft even when immediate results are required. So please, stop the wailing over the influx of teenagers into the NBA. You're starting to sound like shopping mall security guards. Lottery Class Points Rebounds Assists Seniors 10.6 4.6 1.9 Juniors 11.8 4.9 2.3 Sophomores 11.2 4.7 2.7 Freshmen 10.4 4.2 1.8 HS Seniors 7.4 3.9 1.1 Avg. Underclassmen 11.1 4.7 2.2 Since 1991, the seniors drafted in the lottery (62 players) have averaged 10.6 points, 4.6 rebounds and 1.9 assists per game during their rookie seasons. The underclassmen drafted in the lottery (67 players) have averaged 11.1 points, 4.7 rebounds and 2.2 assists during their first year. Since 1989, five seniors have been taken with the number one pick. Only one, Tim Duncan, is All-Star worthy while another one, Kenyon Martin, is recovering from a broken leg he originally snapped his senior season of college. The others? Pervis Ellison, Derrick Coleman and Larry Johnson have paved the way to mediocrity. Of the seven underclassmen taken No. 1, five of them: Shaquille O'Neal, Chris Webber, Glenn Robinson, Allen Iverson and Elton Brand, have turned into NBA All-Star quality players. It's too early to tell with Michael Olowokandi, who may just be the latest Clipper casualty while Joe Smith is scratching for minutes from the bench when not signing napkins illegally. Critics point out that the NBA draft becomes more diluted Lottery Class Points Rebounds Assists 1991 10.3 5.3 2.4 1992 14.4 6.7 2.1 1993 11.8 4.2 2.9 1994 13.1 5.5 2.6 1995 10.6 4.7 1.8 1996 11.9 4.5 2.4 1997 10.4 4.2 1.8 1998 9.9 4.5 1.8 1999 9.9 3.9 2.6 2000 6.9 3.4 1.1 Average 10.9 4.7 2.1 each year and this year's will be worse because of the influx of a record number of underclassmen. Teams bemoaned the lack of "impact players" in the draft and gag at the word "upside" any more. So be it. Since 1991, lottery draft classes as a whole have averaged between 9.9 and 14.4 points, 4.2 and 6.7 rebounds and 1.8 to 2.9 assists per game during their rookie seasons. Last year's lottery class put up a paltry 6.9 points, 3.4 rebounds and 1.1 assists. But statistically, they were an aberration. The class before them, the lottery Class of 1999, averaged 13.6 points, 5.1 rebounds and 3.5 assists per game in year two -- better than the Class of 1992 in year five. "Impact" is not necessarily synomomous with "senior." Sure Tim Duncan and Grant Hill can come into the league and dominate after playing four years of college ball. But they were special players -- players who could have had an impact two years earlier than they did. An NBA rookie need not be a seasoned senior nor a No. 1 pick to make a major immediate impact on their team. Freshman Lamar Odom (No. 4 in 1999) averaged 16.6 points, 7.8 rebounds and 5.2 assists as a rookie. Freshman Shareef Abdur-Rahim (No.3 in 1996) averaged 18.7 points, 7 rebounds and 2.2 assists for the Grizzlies as a rookie. Sophomore Jerry Stackhouse (No. 3 in 1995) averaged 19.2 points, 3.7 rebounds and 3.9 assists for the Sixers. Sophomore Jamal Mashburn (No. 4 in 1993) averaged 19.2 points, 4.5 rebounds and 3.4 assists for the Mavericks. Each one of these players, despite their different positions in class, on the court and in the draft, all led their respective teams in scoring as rookies and still do as veterans. If Kobe Bryant wants to cut his teeth on Grant Hill rather than some undersized, overmatched Communications Major, then that is his prerogative. He'll wise up soon enough when he catches his first elbow to the chops or rides more pine in his first season than the combined years of his amateur existence. But we're not talking about 6-foot-5 trick ponies here. Genius has its privileges. And if your general manager doesn't recognize it or can't handle the pressure, then another one will. Kobe could've been the No. 1 pick in the aforementioned Class of 1999 if he had gone to college for four years. Instead, he's become a three-time all star, two-time All NBA selection, Slam Dunk Champion and NBA Champion. Oh yeah, he's also got a 6-year, $71 million contract. The five freshman who have entered the draft since the lottery was conceived (Shareef Abdur-Rahim, Tim Thomas, Larry Hughes, Lamar Odom and Corey Maggette) have gone on to average 15.2 points, 6.1 rebounds and 3.1 assists per game after an average of 3.6 seasons in the league. The high schoolers have done even better. Kevin Garnett, Kobe Bryant, Tracy McGrady, Jonathan Bender and Darius Miles are averaging 18 points, 6.4 rebounds and 3.2 assists per game after that same 3.6 seasons in the league. This season's All Star game consisted of 15 players who entered as underclassman and 12 who did so as seniors. The Rookie Challenge consisted of 9 underclassman and 9 seniors. An underclassman won Rookie of the Year. An underclassman won MVP. This year's high school draftee was named to the All Rookie First Team and 1996's high school draftee has turned the playoffs into his personal highlight film. Four of the Top 6 picks in this year's draft could very well walk across the stage in their prom tuxedos. And if history proves correct, give them a few years and several of them will turn into NBA stars. An influx of underclassmen doesn't necessarily mean the NBA Draft has become weaker through the years as much as it's become harder to discern. General Managers and Team Presidents who have failed in the past will continue to do so as they are forced to evaluate talent without the benefit of the college peepshow. They'll have a five-year window to build a winner, meaning they'll actually have to develop these youngsters into complete players who can identify with the team rather than simply throwing money at their agents and telling them about the dangers of HIV. Instead of trying to card our young heroes at the door, David Stern might want to ask his employers why it is that the same franchises keep popping up when ping pong balls come into play while four other famous franchises have won 37 of the league's 54 championships. The underclassmen are paraded onto the court and asked to perform for their livelihood. Why should it be any different for general managers and team presidents? Why are coaches given aluminum can lifespans? Why is Donald Sterling still allowed to practice indentured servitude in the NBA? Since 1985, there has never been a Draft lottery without either the Clippers, Nets, Warriors or Wizards involved. In fact, the Clippers have participated in 12 lotteries, the Wizards 10, and the Warriors and Nets nine apiece. And this doesn't count the lottery picks they've traded. And guess what. All four teams are back again for Draft Lottery 2001. Talk about your bad karma. Or is it just inept front offices? The Los Angeles Lakers have had 14 first round picks since the lottery began in 1985, averaging the 21st pick (the highest being Eddie Jones at No. 10 in 1994). Of those 14 picks, 11 of those players are still in the league, seven of them are starting and 3 made the All Star team this year alone. The Los Angeles Clippers have had 18 first round picks in that same period of time, averaging the 9th pick (including two No. 1 picks and eight Top 5's). Of those 18 picks, 12 are still in the league but 6 of them have come in the last three years and are still on their rookie contracts, seven of them are starting and only two of them have ever made an all star team in 15 years. And guess which team has the No. 2 pick in this year's draft and which one is headed to the Finals with a perfect 11-0 playoff record? So who will the Clippers pick after the Washington Wizards take their turn? Underclassman Eddie Griffin? High schooler Eddy Curry or classmates Kwame Brown, Tyson Chandler or DeSagana Diop? How about senior Shane Battier? No, there isn't a Shaquille O'Neal in this year's draft at No. 1 or Gary Payton at No. 2 or Grant Hill at No. 3. Go ahead. Blame rap music and the NCAA. Short-shorts on grainy film look good when you're cutting to commercial, but the tattooed teenagers and twentysomethings are the only ones capable of putting the athleticism and imagination on the court required in today's entertainment industry. Just picture your general manger in cornrows before letting him anywhere near your next draft pick. ------------------ "...Do you hear 'em? They're everywhere!!! AAAHHH!!!" That's what the other teams will be saying after being shellshocked by Steve Francis and Co.
could you say that again please.. also i have a question regarding paragraph 12 where you mention magic and his '79 departure ..it was michigan state right sophomore year? ------------------ "no matter how good she looks someone... somewhere..is tired of her sh*t"
Just to clarify for accuracy purposes. A The Facts: 1. Houston intended to draft Rashard Lewis despite a history of not taking underclassmen. They had lengthy discussions and the family contends (arguably), they had a commitment. 2. They had three First Round picks in that (1998) draft @ 14,16,18 3. They had one Second Round pick(#41). 4. They had a number of big holes in their roster (including PG,SG,SF) 5. #14 they took M.Dickerson SG 6. #16 they took B. Drew PG 7. #18 they took M. Turkcan SF 8. The plan was to take Rashard Lewis in the first round only if their short list was exhausted. 9. The plan was to take Rashard Lewis in the second round if at all possible. 10. The #41 comes up and they draft Cuttino Mobley the absolute best second rounder avaialable. B. The Problem Question: The Rockets had a choice: use the last first round choice (#18) on an untried highschooler or a proven performer from Europe who had four years of (adult) play behind him. Solution: Let’s take Rashard in the second round. C. The Results: The obvious (and most critical) extrapolation from all of this is that in retrospect Turkcan subsequently showed he could not even carry Lewis's jockstrap when the two talents were eventually compared on the NBA court. D. Lest We Not Forget: Despite the talents that Rashard Lewis has demonstrated keep these little tidbits in mind: 1. The Rockets were not the only team that was reticent to draft the HS guy in the first round. A ton of no talents (or borderline talents) were taken well in advance of Rashard Lewis’s name being called, including R. MacLeod (@20), S Jacobson (#26), and A. Sesay (#30). 2. Seattle who eventually drafted Rashard took Vladimir Stephania in the first round (#27), before they decided on Rashard Lewis(#32). 3. Minnesota passed on him at the #17 spot and took Nesterovic which in Yugslavian means “ the long tall guy who sits on the bench”. 4. We got Mobley at our #41 spot. 5. We still have a first round draft selection pending with the trade of Turkcan. What really keeps me awake at night .... if we had passed on Turkcan and took Rashard, would we have been still able to draft Mobley at the #41 spot? Yes,very very likely. Grrrrrrrr. Cheers. ------------------
>> crash5179 << I am not bashing Rudy! I love Rudy T., really. I am one of few who really believe when he crashed into that tree it was really from exhaustion and not from scotch (his favorite, if I remember correctly). Rashard (from my alma mater - Alief/Elsik) should have been picked instead of Mirsad Turcsan. But we all know that hind sight is 20/20. I am not bashing him, we all make mistakes from time to time (like me actually responding to this), but I would love if Rudy would get out of "we must pick a WASP player" mode and go with the best player available. Turcsan was not the first or only mistake by the way that Rudy T. and compay has made. Remember Zan Tabak? Is he even in the NBA anymore? And please don't turn this into a black and white issue, because it is not warranted. I am a proponet of drafting the best available talent and then, if necessary trade for need, not the other way around. Additionally, there is no guarantee that the Sonics would have picked Mobley had the Rockets chose Lewis with that pick instead. So who knows. Anyway, Rudy T. (or anyone who can get his ear) consider the merit of this article because you never know when the next Kobe or KG is right under your nose!!!!!!! ------------------ "...Do you hear 'em? They're everywhere!!! AAAHHH!!!" That's what the other teams will be saying after being shellshocked by Steve Francis and Co.
>> Oily One / oeilpere << I would like to pay homage to you. You are SO INSIGHTFUL (no sarcasm intended, really). I did not know we had a first round draft selection pending due to the trade of Turkcan. That is somewhat reliefing. I am glad to know that you agree that Mobley would have probably still been available should we have taken Lewis instead, because that was always my feeling. Now to change the subject a little, why have you been so quiet, lately? I always look forward to your posts. ------------------ "...Do you hear 'em? They're everywhere!!! AAAHHH!!!" That's what the other teams will be saying after being shellshocked by Steve Francis and Co.
Looking back at the availables, what other SFs were there for Seattle to pluck had we snagged Rashard instead of Turksan? Andrae Patterson and Tremaine Fowlkes.. Would they have been in the market for a SG? Was Cuttino clearly the best player available at #41? Player selection #40 was Korleone Young, #41 was Mobeley, and #42 was Miles Simon: a high school "phenom", an unknown, and an NCAA "star." Look who gets the last laugh. This drafting process is a cruel one. Who would have predicted that outcome. I don't see any clear reason we could not have had all 4. Looking back now, everyone would have picked Mobeley but there was no applicable hindsight in 1998. ------------------ Time is a great teacher-- only problem is it kills all its pupils.
Couple of additional points to Oeilpere's remarks. 1. When Rashard Lewis came out, he was extremely skinny, and had virtually no outside shot. I don't blame the Rockets for passing over him, because at that time, he had not shown if he could match up in the NBA or even the NCAA 2. That was the year we signed Scottie Pippen. Come draft day, the Rockets pretty much had a good idea if they wanted a small forward or not. With Scottie Pippen coming to Houston, they had no immediate need to draft a small forward to start. As it happens, they had to send Turkcan to Philly so that they could fit Pippen within the cap. ------------------
FranchiseCat, Don't worry, you won't get any racial accussations from me. I never thought you were heading in that direction. I just think it is unrealistic to expect any team to go into a draft with 4 picks and hit on all four. Beleive me I would have loved to have drafted Rashard but I do see Rudy T's logic behind doing what he did, and I don't expect him to be wright all the time. My biggest problem is that Rudy T has been getting knocked for not drafting Rashard for the last year and a half. Rudy's biggest problem I think was that he thought Rashard would be there at 41 and he wasn't. Now If Rashard had been available at 41 would we have Cat? No. I will agree that it would have been great if Rudy T had drafted Rashard in the first but as someone else said...hind sight is 20/20. ------------------
6. The Rockets knew they were likely signing Quittin to a multi-year deal. Quittin would start and get the bulk of the SF minutes. If Lewis was drafted and Quittin signed, the expectations would be that Lewis would see meager PT, would become a FA before showing his worth, and would have left a skid mark getting out of town. Also for all you silly people who think Rudy hates undergrads, can you name the starting PG for the Rocks and whether or not he was a senior when he was drafted and how much PT he saw when he was a rook? [This message has been edited by No Worries (edited June 01, 2001).]
>> crash5179 << I respect what you say and I do see the merit behind that thought process. If only this was a perfect Rockets world. Let me say this to all.....This is such a cool forum (cc.net), if only I had found this earlier. Everyone here, is pretty much a true-blue Rockets fan. I couldn't be in better company. ------------------ "...Do you hear 'em? They're everywhere!!! AAAHHH!!!" That's what the other teams will be saying after being shellshocked by Steve Francis and Co.
With all that said, Rudy still has a trend to draft the tall, 6'10 senior big man. No matter talent/potential. Personally, I now like our choice of Collier in last year's draft. But with all the talent in this draft, I think he should take a chance and go for the young high-school senior/College Frosh. Especially since he has at least two chances in the first round to get a player he likes. ------------------ Never Underestimate the Heart of a Champion
"When Rashard Lewis came out, he was extremely skinny, and had virtually no outside shot. I don't blame the Rockets for passing over him, because at that time, he had not shown if he could match up in the NBA or even the NCAA" Rashard Lewis was a very good outside shooter when he entered the draft. His shooting was one of his strong suits. But I pretty much agreed with everything else that was being said. We had our sights set on Pippen and Rashard wasn't going to get much PT for a very long time behind Pippen's Long Term contract. ------------------
oilpere: I thought that Turkcan was mediocre in Europe? His stats certainly didn't leap out and say "GREAT PLAYER HERE!" ------------------ A few years back on the Senate floor... Phil Gramm: "If Democrats could, they'd tax the air we breathe." Ted Kennedy (jumping up): "By God, why didn't I think of that sooner!" Boston College - NCAA Hockey National Champions 2001
If I remember right, RL hit 24-25 3-pts in his workout for us. ------------------ "Chucky who? I thought we were talking about basketball?" Charles Barkley
OT - I must have more faith in the Wiz and Langhi than you do (and yes I think D.L. can play the 3). Langhi has not had a chance to show what kind of player he can be, and will prove to be as good as some of the other 3/4 guys being highly touted in this draft. You make a good point about not waiting until later to get a SF in the draft. I did put out for consideration a thread about trading with Minnesota for Wally Z. Maybe Cato and our #18... By the way, any moratoriums on other teams trading picks to Minn??? For all others - I would never bash Rudy!! He has proven to be too good at evaluating talent! As others have said, I was simply dreaming about what could have been. -------------- Our purpose in life is to find our gift, the meaning of life is to give it away! ------------------
I still think the Rocket's brass put too much importance in experience/how players perform in big games(NCCA Tournament). Sometimes you luck out and find a diamond in the rough(Mobley), and other times it comes back to bite you in the a**(Lewis). ------------------ [This message has been edited by tacoma park legend (edited June 01, 2001).]
So what's Harold Minor been up to lately? Rudy was really stupid in passing him up for that loser from Alabama huh? Rudy T and Carrol Dawson should be fired for all of the dumb drafts they've had. I mean what the hell were they thinking when they drafted Sam Cassell, Robert Horry, Cuttino Mobley, Kenny Thomas, and Michael Dickerson? I think this whole "Rudy T prefers experience over talent" thing is overrated. In the last 7 years the Rockets haven't exactly had much of a draft pool to choose from when their number pops up in the draft. They made 1 or 2 mistakes, for every 1 mistake you guys point out, we could name 1 great draft pick they've made. The Rockets know when talent is more important than experience, that's why they made that trade for Steve Francis. We missed out on Rashard Lewis, big deal. We're going to more than likely draft a player that's just as good as him in this upcoming draft. The Rockets have more hits than misses in the draft, which is better than some other teams out there. If Rashard Lewis is the biggest draft day curse on this franchise, then I'm a very happy person. Just look at the teams that have passed up players like Kobe Bryant, Tracy McGrady, Paul Pierce, and Vince Carter and feel very fortunate we're not one of them. ------------------ I don't want to waste my time And become a casualty of society. I'll never fall in line Become a victim of your conformity and back down.
The most significant point relative to the Rockets is that Rudy T is in that category of decision makers who are too scared to pull the trigger on drafting a H.S. kid (see Rashard Lewis vs. Bryce Drew....)! How good would Rashard look on our roster now? And while I realize that we are not currently in position to pick one of the top 5 now, we have the potential to move up, and we should. We need size, and we need it now. We have enough shooters that we can afford to wait for a small forward either via FA or later in the draft. C'mon Rudy, grow a pair and go for Curry or Diop. That would be so cool -------------- Our purpose in life is to find our gift, the meaning of life is to give it away! ------------------
