MoT's contract expires in 2007. contracts expiring in 2006 - Yao, Pike, JJ, Spoon Except for MoT and Juwan's contract that expires in 2008, contracts for future draft picks and hopefully McGrady's new contract - - EVERY OTHER CONTRACT EXPIRES IN 2006. Yao will become a max player in 2006 (which is when he should be fully in his prime), which combined with Juwan and McGrady's contracts, means we will probably be over the cap for the next ten years (small exception if the team could engineer all other new contracts to expire in 2008 when Juwan's contract expires, but luring free agents prior to 2008 will take long term contracts so that will not happen). So, if we could exchange MoT's contract for a contract that expires in 2006, we should have cap room to go after free agents in 2006!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! If we don't lose MoT, we will never (in the foreseeable future) have enough cap room to go after a decent free agent with anything other than the MLE. SO - how do we clear cap room for 2006 (and not cripple the team)? Include MoT in a trade for other bad contracts that teams would like to deal and/or sweeten the pot with draft picks and other players. contracts expiring in 2006: Chicago has Davis at over 12 mil and Robinson at 6.5 that expire in 2006: Suggested deal: TE for Robinson and MoT+Spoon for ADavis. We get a good backup for the PF/C positions and a SF who may be something or nothing. Chicago gets rid of Robinson who they are determined to deal, another huge contract in ADavis, two veteran PFs who can tutor their young players along with the TE that can be used in its dealings with New York. Toronto has LMurray(5.5) and AWilliams(4.5) contracts expire in 2006. I am not sure about AWilliams' condition/value but LMurray has fallen out of favor. Suggested deal: MoT for LMurray (and a scrub to make salaries match. TE for AWilliams if he can be our PG. Toronto gets cap relief, loses an expensive bench player and another scorer to go next to Carter and MoPete, plus he should be a complemet to Donyell. Rox get a PG and lose MoT's contract. Portland has Ruben Patterson (5.5 exp in 2006)). Portland also has an expensive PG in stoudamire who's contract expires in 2005. Suggested deal: TE for Ruben, and stoudamire for MoT and Spoon(or Pike+boki+griffin - it would take something along those lines to make salaries match) Memphis has Bonzi (7) and LWright (6.6) that expire in 2006. Suggested deal - Mot for Bonzi and TE for Wright. Wright would be a great backup and Bonzi would be instant scoring off the bench. Memphis does not do this deal unles they have a use for the TE.
We will too good to get another stud player through the draft unless we get extremely lucky. We don't have any players with great value that we will trade. So, free agency is the only for the team to improve. All we have, after we use/lose the TE, is the MLE since we are over the cap. So, cap room would be nice - it would give us an opportunity to get one more stud player in 2006. - - one other possible deal: MoT to ATL for Henderson ($$ are same but Henderson's contract expires in 2005 while MoTs expires in 2007). And/or TE for JTerry. ATL would be stuck with MoT for 2 years longer than Henderson, but MoT would actually start for them and be an improvement over Henderson. TE for JT may not be enough (add draft picks?) - but it would provide the rox with more scoring and he could play point.
with yao and tmac. we will never be under the cap. even if we do get under the cap, it must be for more than 5 mill --- mle money, to actually be able to offer up more money for most teams that will have their mles. you want to clear off some contracts to get players for the 06-07 season? .we at the bare minimum of having 3 people signed will be 16.9 million for Tmac, 6.3 million for juwan, 11 million for yao all adding up to a grand total of 34.2 million. with the cap hovering at about 45 million. thats gives you 11 million to fill out a 12 man roster. that means 11 million to split between 9 people.
2005-2006 season, not 2007 At the end of the 2006 season, except for MoT, we will have a little over 20mil invested in TMac and Juwan. Otherwise, only about a mil in contracts for future draft picks. We will have the cap hold on Yao for his present contract - before we give him the max contract. Same for JJ, Pike, Spoon or any free agents we keep (all would be renounced if we needed the cap room for a max contract offer). So, after the 2006 season our cap would look like this: TMac - approx 16 Juwan - approx 7 future draft picks - 1mil total - 24 mil plus cap hold on Yao prior to resigning to max contract - approx 6 mil. So, 30 mil tied up - leaving approx 15 mil for free agents (minus cap holds for players we resign or other new contracts that extend past 2006) 15 mil gets us a max free agent!! BUT - if MoT's contract is added back in, then we drop back to about 5 mil - which is useless because it is equal to the MLE!!!!! SO MOT MUST GO FOR A CONTRACT THAT EXPIRES IN 2006.
Mo's contract is no longer that bad by comparisson. Plus, I think he's a valuable member to the Rockets. To trade him for other bad contracts makes no sense to me less it happened to be for an above average point guard or back up center.
plus cap hold on Yao prior to resigning to max contract - approx 6 mil. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Do you think Yao just can sign a 6 mil contract? If rockets does it,I am very sure yao will leave!
if history repeats itself, carroll will get yao signed to max extension after this season, that will kick in for the 06/07 season. also, you are assuming that we sign no one whos contract will last past the 05-06 season. yeah, try and find us a legit nba starting point gaurd and try to sign him to a 2 year deal. guess no free agent signings next year either. and no draft pick signings until the 06-07 season comes around. decline reece gains team option for 06-07. and we'd be right back where we started. 3 players under contract, 9 spots to fill with about 11 million. you could give that all to 1 player, and you'll be left with 3 all stars, and nothing behind them whatsoever.
ggore, in spite of the grief you are getting, I think it is an interesting post. It is well thought out and presented. Some of your trades don't work in my opinion, but several do, and they show that your idea can be made to work. Three superstars is nice. And I agree with you that if we are going to get three, that is when it has to bbe done. However, I think that the two we have are appropriate. I think role players are the key rom here. And we can start assembling them today. Role players can also be gotten for the MLE (average salary), and possibly with crappy draft picks. But I do have a question. Who will be available in the free agent class of 2006? That could change my mind.
Spending that max money on a max free agent sounds a whole lot better than spending 18 million on Taylor, Weatherspoon, and Pike. Especially considering that Spoon and Pike are bench warmers and Taylor's minutes will take a big drop playing behind Howard.
As of now, the free agent class of 06 looks great. Richard Jefferson Jason Collins Tim Thomas Nazr Mohammad Samuel Dalembert Tyson Chandler Eddy Curry Ben Wallace Tayshaun Prince Jamal Tinsley Fred Jones Michael Redd Al Harrington Cuttino Mobley Tony Battie Kwame Brown Pau Gasol Shane Battier Zach Randolph Vladimir Radmanovic Matt Harpring Andrei Kirilenko Jason Richardson Mike Dunleavy Troy Murphy Joe Johnson Bobby Jackson There are quite a few small forwards available, which is perfect because JJ will probably close to done in 2 seasons. We still have to wait to see how many of these players resign with their teams prior to 06, but I think there's probably going to be a lot of free agents to choose from.
thing is.....we dont need to get a 3rd star... we have two of the brightest Studs in the league on our team... the way the slary rules are laid out, and the amount of money that certifiable studs make means there aint no way you get 3 max money studs for one team......no way. you get your two stud all stars, and then fill in the holes with decent role players that dont make as much. if you think we can afford 3 max type studs...you are deluding yourself.
In 2006, the 2002 draft picks (which was the deepest draft for max players in years) will be free agents (not sure which veterans will be available except Cassell, BWallace, CAtkins, Jaric, LWright, Bonzi, Harpring, Redd, TThomas, AlHarrington, SpeedyC, Battie, and PPierce if he opts out) ): see rookies below: Yao could agree to a deal in principle but wait to sign until we had added a max free agent(this was done by a team a couple of years ago). The cap hold on a player is the value of the last year of his contract plus 10% (not sure if percentage is correct, but it is close). That is why Yao would only count 6mil or so before he signed the new max contract (as soon as he signed the new contract we would go over the cap - but before he signed we would be able to get one max player). As far as the rest of the roster - if we had 15 mil - then part of it could go to retaining JJ (instead of renouncing him) or a MLE player next year. It does not look like we will add a player worth over 5 mil this year - anf if we do, a 2 year contract uis reasonable for those out there. If we could get rid of MoT, and we didn't sign someone this year - then I think the position we would be in next year would dictate that we wait until 2006 because the gains would be so much more. Or, next year we could trade some of those expiring contracts for a quality player (similar to the ATL/Potland deal with Rahim). In addition, if we had 15 mil available, we could sign 2 quality players (Butler and Wagner) and if we only save 8-10 mil (instead of 15). Either way, we would be in a better position in 2006 than we are in now (2 stars (TMac and Yao), 2 middle of the pack starters (JJ and Juwan - i am being kind here) and a bunch of role players that could be signed for minimum contracts or below MLE contracts. In 2006 it could be: Yao, Tmac, Juwan, maybe we retain JJ, sign Cassell/Speedy/some vet PG, along with a Wilcox and a dunleavy - whoever proves themselves in the next 2 years. MY POINT IS THAT IF WE COULD DEAL MOT FOR CONTRACTS THAT EXPIRE IN 2006, WE HAVE A LOT OF OPTIONS. IF WE DON'T, THEN WE ARE LIMITED TO DRAFT PICKS AND THE MLE. FIRST ROUND 1. Houston (28-54) Yao Ming, c, Shanghai Sharks (China) 2. Chicago (21-61) Jay Williams, g, Duke 3. Golden State (21-61) Mike Dunleavy, f, Duke 4. Memphis (23-59) Drew Gooden, f, Kansas 5. Denver (27-55) Nikoloz Tskitishvili, f-c, Benetton Treviso (Italy) 6. Cleveland (29-53) Dajuan Wagner, g, Memphis 7.* New York (30-52) traded to Denver Maybyner "Nene" Hilario, f-g, Vasco da Gama (Brazil) 8. LA Clippers from Atlanta (33-49) Chris Wilcox, f, Maryland 9. Phoenix (36-46) Amare Stoudemire, f-c, Cypress Creek HS (Florida) 10. Miami (36-46) Caron Butler, g-f, Connecticut 11. Washington (37-45) Jared Jeffries, f, Indiana 12. LA Clippers (39-43) Melvin Ely, f-c, Fresno State 13. Milwaukee (41-41) Marcus Haislip, f, Tennessee 14. Indiana (42-40) Freddie Jones, g, Oregon 15. Houston from Toronto (42-40) Bostjan Nachbar, f, Benetton Treviso (Italy) 16.** Philadelphia (43-39) traded to Golden State Jiri Welsch, g, Olimpija Ljubljana (Slovenia) 17. Washington from New Orleans (44-38) Juan Dixon, g, Maryland 18.*** Orlando (44-38) traded to Utah Curtis Borchardt, c, Stanford 19.*** Utah (44-38) traded to Orlando Ryan Humphrey, f, Notre Dame 20.**** Toronto from Seattle (45-37) via New York traded to LA Lakers Kareem Rush, g, Missouri 21. Portland (49-33) Qyntel Woods, f, NE Mississippi CC 22. Phoenix from Boston (49-33) Casey Jacobsen, g-f, Stanford 23. Detroit (50-32) Tayshaun Prince, f, Kentucky 24. New Jersey (52-30) Nenad Krstic, f-c, Partizan Belgrade (Yugoslavia) 25.* Denver from Dallas (58-24) traded to New York Frank Williams, g, Illinois 26.***** San Antonio (58-24) traded to Philadelphia John Salmons, g, Miami (Fla.) 27.**** L.A. Lakers (58-24) traded to Toronto Chris Jefferies, f, Fresno State 28.****** Sacramento (61-21) traded to Atlanta Dan Dickau, g, Gonzaga
I may be deluding myself to think we can get 3 max players - but 2 only means we make the playoffs. 3 makes us strong. Look at the competition in 3 years: Denver: No wasted cap space, a superstud in carmelo, other stars in miller/nene/camby/kenyon and skita is lighting up the summer league. So, Denver has 2 max players now (miller and martin(, another that will definitely be maxed (carmelo) and 2 more that might be (nene and skita). Of course 3 max players menas that they may allow nene to leave in 2006 Phoenix: Amare (will be max), Marion, (max), Nash (high), Quentin (very high), and JJohnson (might be max). Plus all the draft picks they have stacked up. that is why I would try to add a 3rd max player. Then we fill in with MLE players and could dominate. I agree that the "norm" has been 2 max players - but I would try to build a sure thing.
Except that they would be all be restricted FA's or already locked up to extentions. We would probably have to try to overpay to get any restricted FAs. Also we won't be able to overpay because... Sounds good. Except the cap hold on a player coming off a rookie contract and has bird rights isn't 10%. Try 250%. In that case Yao would count about $14 million. It actually counts less on the cap if Yao gets signed to a max extention before hand. http://members.cox.net/lmcoon/salarycap.htm#28 I'm all for moving Mo's contract. It would give us more flexibility in terms of the cap and luxury tax. But that's easier said than done. And trying to land another max player along with Tmac and Yao will be very, very tough to do.
I don’t know about having 3 max players on one team. I just want a third star being paid 3rd star money. I would be happy if the Rockets could follow the same plan the Spurs have followed. They have 2 max players (Duncan and Parker eventually) and a 3rd star making 9 mil a season (Ginobili). I certainly would rather pay 9 mil per for a player that will be our 3rd star, than 9 mil on bench player like Taylor who is the 5th best player on the team.
The key is to pick a gem out of stones from drafting. Utah got AK47, Spurs got Parker and Ginobilli from late round. You got to get cheap talent, otherwise, no hope. Even during Rox championship years, we got Sam Cassell at 24th pick.
