[Roundball Mining Company] An article highlighting Kevin Martin's efficiency

only time will tell this year if he can hit that shot with a hand in his face cause he shold get plenty of shots.

 

Very interesting read. So basically Mello is the best of the bunch at making open shots, but the worst at getting open shots. Whereas Martin is the best at getting open shots, yet the worst at making them.

I wonder if he would get more open shots in our system than he would in Denvers.

I think he might.

 

There are a couple of missing things:

1. Fouls/Free Throws
2. 3 pointers

And the author actually admitted that in the "comments section."

[rquoter]◦ Jeremy says:
October 19, 2010 at 9:43 am
I dropped the ball on free throws and three point shooting, which I intended to mention, but obviously failed to do so. I might have to cook up a second edition to include some comments on those two areas.[/rquoter]

Given that, with the Rockets, Kevin Martin attempted 7.7 Free Throws a game, 4.2 3-pointers, and 10.6 2-pointers, the authors' failure to account for the impact of 3s and Free Throws makes Kevin Martin look much worse than he actually is.

For example, compared to others in the data set, a higher proporation of Martins FG attempts were 3s., which he struggled shooting last year, so I am not suprised that his FG% on open shots is low compared to the other guys.

Also, while Martin might shoot 18% on "contested shots" we are talking about only those the "contested shots" in which the defender actually avoided fouling him. The author estimates about 30% of Martin's FG attempts were "contested." Given that he shoots about 15 FGs a game, that's about 4.5 FG attempts. At the same time, Martin shot 7.7 FTs a game, which probably are mostly drawn from "contested shots" (some could be non-shooting foul in the penalty, but still they most likely came from aggressive moves). Taking away "And 1s" that's probably around 3 to 3.5 extra "contested shots" for which the author was not accounting.

Of course, the same issue plague his analysis with the other players, too, but if you look at the ratio of 2pter/3pter/FTA for each of them, overlookign 3s and FTs would seem to have the biggest impact on the analysis for Martin.

 

The article was interesting, but I really disagreed with his argument that this data suggests Carmelo could easily become a more efficient scorer if he just bought into it. The writer seems to be ignoring the possibility that Carmelo gets fewer open shots than the others largely because he's just not good at getting separation for himself. Getting open shots is a skill that Melo might not have to the degree these other guys do. A change in attitude would not change that.

 

Wow, really good read.

 

Smart shot selection and the physical ability to to get open shots are two separate things, the latter being highly dependent on who else is playing.

 

wow, so melo has the highest percentage making shots when they are contested, I thought Kobe Had the highest percentage.!!! but very interesting.

 

I wonder how Melo's numbers will look when he's a Rocket.

(I just want ASidd to ask me if I have some inside info.)

 

This is the reason I would rather have Melo. I want someone that will and can make the shot when the defense clamps and there are no open shots to be had. This is what happens in the playoffs. How many open shots does Kobe get in the playoffs. None. Defenses clamp down and players like Martin aren't going to look as good. Martin is a great second guy. He scores in bunches efficiently, but we need a first guy is clutch like Melo.

 

The article was a good step towards a prudent use of advance statistics, and your correction is further improvement. "Advanced" not so much in the statistics themselves, but what they attempt to measure. This in stark contrast to the inaccurate use of statistics in other threads, then denouncing the field all together when not getting the desired results.

 

If only we had some players that could punish defenses that clamp down on Martin...

 

CH hits the nail on the head with his post (man, this guy alternates between some of the smartest and silliest posts in this forum): the analysis is marred by a lack of fts and 3 points.

I'm surprised the author didn't see it himself, if you convert his analysis to bullet points it doesn't add up:

Fact 1: KM has a higher TS% than Melo

Observation 1: Melo makes higher open shots than Martin

Observation 2: Melo makes higher contested shots than Martin

If Melo makes higher contested and open shots than why the hell does he have a lower TS%? The answer is of course he didn't take into account fts and 3 pts. In fact to my mind his data just further exposes the flaws in Melo's game and shows why he isn't a max player: even with a study done in his favour, Melo is still only 3rd best when it comes to making contested shots.

Lets be honest, Melo is a sub-par defender, horrible 3 pt shooter and an average ft shooter. Apart from his rebounding, scoring 2 pointers is the only thing he's good at, and the reason why some people see him as a "Max" player, and that's basically the only thing this study covers. However even with this handicap Thugello only comes up 3rd best. Yeah he makes most of his open shots, but considering this only covers 2 pointer majority of those shots were probably dunks or layups.

I applaud the writer for taking the trouble of creating something like this but he should follow up his study with a mea culpa and a revised version including 3 pointers and fts. Yeah admits his mistake in a reply, however he doesn't bother to correct readers who actually became dumber after reading his analysis, such as this guy:

Well yeah, take away his open shots, 3 pts and fts and obviously Kevin Martin is the most useless trash on the court. Ya think?

 

Rockets are playing team basketball. It doesn't matter if they lock down Martin, Brooks, Yao and Scola will have an easier time if the defense focuses on just Martin alone.

The point is if you have an elite offensive system in place one guy will always be in a good position to make that bucke so what you want is a lot of good efficient players who will make the most of that chance and not just one great player alongside several mediocre ones. With someone inefficient like Melo, he won't convert on as many of his chances as efficient players like Martin, Scola or Yao.

 

These data does not take into account of FREE THROWS?? Ok, Martin may be low in terms of contested shots made, but i question the data on drawing fouls when contested? Perhaps Martin missed a bulk of his shots due to his ability to draw fouls????? If so, Martin is AS EFFICIENT as the players that made the bulk of their shots contested. How do you NOT take into account of ability to draw fouls and only contested "made shots" and call it "efficiency"? This is bogus.

 

If anything, the data do suggest that Martin IS NOT the type of players that can create his own shots which everyone know by now. That's why i said, we don't have a go-2-guy other than Yao. We have good efficiency players....and that maybe good enough because we have a BIG man inside.

But in terms of efficiency?? Martin is just as good imo....just NOT contested made.