Rotten summer might prevent playoff berth

By Marc Stein
Special to ESPN.com

Cal Ripken and Tony Gwynn just left their game, only a month or so ago, wearing (roughly) the same uniforms they came in sporting. Hakeem Olajuwon simply left. The dreamy face of the Rockets' franchise, not satisfied with his two championships and the chance to retire in the only American city he has ever known, bolted for Canada and the prospect of one last title run.

Although the Rockets can't say so publicly, given Dream's status as Houston royalty, they actually might not have minded so much had they been able to count on Maurice Taylor. Or if they could have replaced Mo with Marc Jackson. Instead, with Taylor out for the season and Jackson stuck in Golden State, the Rockets are missing Dream already. They've got no dependable size otherwise (thus the Kevin Willis deal) and are thus forced to put their faith in Kelvin Cato, who one Houston columnist has dubbed "The Hallucination." Which is why a playoff berth, no matter how good Stevie Franchise and Cuttino Mobley look, is probably fantasy this season.

Who's Who
Had they known how it would all turn out, Rockets management would undoubtedly ask for a summer do-over and go with the original plan: Go after Chris Webber. They scratched that idea to focus on keeping their own free agents, but, as noted earlier in the Olajuwon tribute, the plan didn't pan out. Shandon Anderson (New York) and Matt Bullard (Charlotte) also departed. And the attempt to sign Jackson with Taylor's injury exception was foiled by Golden State at the matching buzzer. Thus the only impact newcomers are Eddie Griffin and Glen Rice, and each comes with a disclaimer. Griffin could be a steal as the No. 7 pick in the draft, or he could live up to the character concerns that dropped him from the top three to seven. Rice could be the perimeter threat Houston has needed, but his suspect feet have to keep him on the court. Plantar and fasciitis are words you don't want to be hearing at Rice's age (34). Especially since the Rockets have already lost Taylor to an Achilles' tear, which seemingly happened about five minutes after Mo got that six-year, $48 million contract.

The Big Question
As always, there are a few. Who will get rebounds on this team? It was Stevie F. last season, and, frankly, he has enough to do elsewhere. Rudy T. would really appreciate it if his point guard didn't have to serve as the team's leading board man. Another uncertainty: How will the Rockets adjust to the new rules? Isolation was the bastion of the Houston offense, and Tomjanovich still thinks Francis and Mobley will get quality looks, but they all know the new rules were aimed specifically at stopping their brand of clear-out ball. Furthermore, there is some skepticism about Rice's ability to prosper on the perimeter without an attention-grabber down low. Tomjanovich disputes that one, too, insisting that Rice can get just as many open shots from Francis and Mobley drives as he might have from Dream kick-outs. As big Rudy T. fans, we'll trust him there.

Best Case Scenario
Francis will make the All-Star team, Mobley and Rice will stay healthy and score freely, rookies Terence Morris and Oscar Torres will contribute immediately and The Hallucination will decide, just for fun, to live up to his $42 million contract and average a double-double. Best-case still only adds up to 40-something wins and maybe the No. 8 slot in a conference that shows no mercy.

Worst Case Scenario
Mobley's pre-season aches and pains will linger, Rice will limp and sulk and Francis will wind up having to grab the rebounds, hustle the ball across the timeline in eight seconds every time and throw alley-oops to himself. Remember last season, when the Rockets won more games (45) than any non-playoff team since the NBA Tournament was expanded to eight teams in each conference. Without a tangible frontcourt or bench, they could end up closer to 35 wins this time.