OK, remember last year, how hopeful everyone was after we almost made the playoffs the year before? But then we lost Mo for the whole year. One starter gone. Rice went down for the year after playing very few games. Two starters gone. Steve has the onset of chronic migraines (is there any other kind?). A third starter out for a quarter of the games, and no telling how many more he should NOT have been playing due to his other various injuries as well as the migraines. It was just too much to overcome, playing so much of the year with only two or three of your projected starters and a bunch of bench players. And then the mantra starts - 'Next year, *IF* we can stay healthy, we can really make some noise' .. but it seems like it's the same merry-go-round every year. Steve would go down. hakeem would have a case of 'Evil Blood' or whatever it was, Barkley's leg falls off, and on and on and on. So as rosy as the picture looks for the Rockets right now, I think we also have to take similar injuries into consideration and assume the worst, before being so convinced about moving guys out or making other roster deals. So let's just look at the 5 starters: Francis, Mobley, Rice, Taylor, and Cato. Let's assume at least one, and more likely two, of these guys will go down for at least half the season. Who will it be? And what impact will it have on who plays, and how much? And how does that effect potential roster moves? My guesses: Seems that Rice is the starter most likely to miss signifigant time. Age, uncertain physical durability, recent serious injuries all place him at the most risk. (it goes without saying that I truly hope no one is injured at all ever, but they DO happen) So if Rice is out, who starts? Should we assume Nachbar? Maybe. Or maybe KT. Hopefully not Griffin, for lots of reasons. Let's just go ahead and assume Nachbar. Who is the backup 3 then? Morris? Pretty grim outlook. And Nachbar is already a bit iffy healthwise to start the seaon. So we start the seaon on yellow alert for Rice's health, and if anything happens to him, it goes to red alert real fast. Could be a pretty serious blow to the entire season. Next most likely guy to go down is, IMO, Taylor. Achilles injuries like his are just really really hard to overcome, and it could conceivably be next year before he really is back to 100% both physically and mentally enough to not worry about the injury. Fortunately, we are stocked at this position. No question, EG becomes the instant starter if Mo goes down. KT backs him up, we're still ok. That's IF we still have KT. If KT is gone, then what? Morris again? Pretty grim again. Of the remaining three guys (Cato, Mobley and Francis) it appears that Steve is the one at the most risk. And face it, when Steve is out, we lose. Doesn't really matter who backs him up. But if Steve goes out for several months, who backs up Mooch? Maddux? Brown? Grim and Grim. Again, doesn't really matter. Steve out, may as well forget the W's until he comes back. So our eggs are all in that one basket anyway, and roster moves here won't make much difference. If Mobley goes down, Steve probably slides to start at the 2, and Mooch starts at point. Would probably work ok for the starters, problem is then you have both guard spots with no legitimate backups. Brown will probably be able to spot minutes for Mooch, but who is the backup 2 then? I don't think that guy is on our roster yet. Cato. Sigh. Well, first I don't think he will ever play hard enough to GET injured, so he's not likely to miss a lot of time doing rehab. Oh and by the way, we do have that Ming guy, who will hopefully replace Cato sooner than later in the starting lineup. Cato can then be the backup, and we should have Collier around just in case, and also to throw 6 fouls at someone if we need. Plus EG will play some 5 by all accounts. So, IMO at least, the conclusions are: If Steve goes down, we're screwed, no matter what. If Rice goes down (most likely scenario), then we might be ok, but we would be in serious need of depth. If Taylor goes down, we're still in decent shape. Would hurt, but hopefully would be able to carry that load. Depth may be an issue depending on what happens with KT. If Mobley goes down, then we sudden have almost no depth at point and zero depth at the 2. If Cato goes down, there may be singing in the streets, but that all depends on how Ming does. This is therefore an unknown, but at least no worse than last year. Seems like our most serious need, then is a quality depth guy who can swing between the 2 and the 3 .. perhaps a trade of KT for such a guy would be best for this team. Say KT for a bench 2/3 and a future pick .. leaves a risk at the 4 depthwise, but I would be more willing to bet on Mo/Griffin staying in the lineup than Rice.. but maybe wait until a ways into the season to see how Taylor is holding up.. Any ideas on who is available out there that might fill this specific need? Value-wise and salary-wise? Free agents? Hopefully it could be someone, a vet maybe, to give us that quality depth but not need to start, kind of the way Eddie Johnson was so good for us a few years ago..
