The draft is over and the players have been picked. Now, who do you think will be rookie of the year? Here is my choice: Caron Butler Why: On this rare occasion I actually agree with the Chuckster in that Caron Butler was the best player in this draft. Since he fell to Miami with the tenth pick I feel he ended up in a better situation. Players that are picked in the later part of round one are obvously taken by better teams and that has what happended in this case. Also I feel that Miam filled a big void in their team with a player that shows up in big games. This was a factor that was missing with the Heat all of last year. They could not win the important games. With the weakness Miami has at the small forward position I think we are gonna see a lot of Butler in their line-up next year. He is surrounded by veterans (Eddie J, Alonzo) that will help guide his transition into the pros. With the vast selection on foriegn and high school players adjusting to a much different style of the game I think Butler's two years of College basketball will pay off.
What were Pau Gasol's numbers last year? Is there any reason that Ming should not be able to reach those same numbers? Ming is just as skilled as Gasol and several inches taller. I expect him to avg around 12 points, 10 boards, 2 blocks and 3 assists a game as a rookie. I would predict higher numbers on the offensive end but with Steve, Cat, MoT, Eddie, KT, Rice and Nachbar the scoring won't fall on his shoulders like it did for Gasol last season.
Sorry, I just still haven't been able to figure out how Caron Butler became such a sure thing. I have no reason to believe that Jay Williams won't be rookie of the year. He was probably the most proven player in college, and I think he has the NBA body and NBA athleticism that will not make the adjustment too hard. Plus, he should be given free reign of his team, whereas guys like Butler and Ming will not. My vote: Jay Williams in a landslide, with Yao Ming as the runner-up.
Rookie of the year is wide open. It will be much easier to judge when the season is half over. It will also be interesting to see how our predictions turn out.
Pau's numbers were pretty good... 17.6 PPG 8.9 RPG 2.7 APG 2.1 BPG 0.5 SPG 2.7 TPG Shooting 52% (4th in the NBA) I (like you) don't think Ming will be able to get near those scoring numbers (same reasons); but otherwise I imagine he should be able to do what Pau did!
If you believe NBA Live 2001, Ming will win it easily. But from a human standpoint, I'd have to go with Jay Will. I think Riley will wear Caron down so that he has a subpar 2nd half, costing him a shot at the award. Ming should be a close second. Darkhorses: Denver's rookies - Skita and Nene.
Man, Pau's numbers were good! Also how well will Yao stand up to an 82 game season playing C? It's going to be tough for him physically not to hit some sort of rookie wall... JWill is almost a lock, but you never know, there could be a dark horse (a la Grant Hill for ROY, oh hang on, we'd better give that guy Kidd something)
as much as i hate it... jay williams he will average 17-7 butler will be a role player this year. dunleavy will be a 3rd option getting 12-5. he is my second choice. my dark horse is wagner. he will have as much freedom as any rookie will this year. he is considered the best scorer in the draft. with miller (assuming he stay's) giving it to him where he can score, and thats about everywhere, he can average 19 a game. ming will be the griffin of this years draft. he will be one of the top 2-3 rookies, but you won't find out about it untill its too late for any recognision.
I'm betting on Butler or Williams. Butler is extremely polished, has a bit of an inside game, a great jump shot, and should be a hard man to guard at the 3. Williams is polished, athleticly gifted, and will play on a bad team. Butler: 15 and 8 Williams 18 and 7 (assists). Butler wins RoY because his team makes the playoffs. Ming - 13 and 7... but isn't part of the race because he comes on late.
I agree with smoothie and haven in that Yao will start slow. Williams and Wagner should be able to put up good numbers because they are on crappy teams. As of now Williams has to be the favorite. After a month in the season or so we should have a better idea.
Ming will not be in the top 5 for ROY. C'mon guys, Lets be realistic. Ming has a lot to work on. In 3 years, I believe Ming will be in the top 3 of his class, but for now, Jay Will and Butler will be competing for ROY. Jay Will: 21ppg 7apg Butler: 17ppg 7rpg Since Butler will be on the better team, I believe the ROY will be very close. Ming: 10ppg 7rpg 1.5bpg
J Wil is on a better team. I'd rather be passing to Jalen Rose than Eddie Jones. J Wil will get more media in Chicago. J Wil will not have teammates who disappear from inexplicable injuries. J Wil will not have to rely on nutcase Strickland or some cba player to pass him the ball. J Wil will have a decent, human coach, not the devil incarnate poking him with a pitchfork. J Wil will have wintery Chicago after games, not South Beach. I hope Caron survives, much less thrives.
You are asking us to be realistic and you have JWill starting out at 21 and 7? Please! Steve didn't even start out at 21 and 7 with Dream and Barkley hurt most of the year. How many Rookies have even avg'd 20 points or more in the last ten years? Duncan avg'd 21 ppg Allen Iverson avg'd 23.5 ppg Shaq avg'd 23.4 ppg Alonzo Morning 21 ppg Those are the only players that I can find that avg'd more than 20 ppg in their rookie years over the last 10 years and no one has done it in half a decade and 2 of those players did it 10 years ago. Also, Iverson is the only non big man to do it. Now you tell me who is being unrealistic! Please take the time to explain to me why you think Yao's skills are not as good or better than Pau's. If Yao gets the minutes (which he will) he will be in the running for ROY all year.
I dont know why you are looking for the magic number of 20, but there are many players that avg. 17-20 their rookie seasons. Brand averaged 20 and Jay will is going into the same basic situation that Brand was going to. Here is my reasoning as to why Ming will not get the numbers that Pau got. 1) Pau entered a team that had no offense. He was the go to man. Ming is entering a team that is loaded with offense. From steve, to mobes, to MoTay, to Rice, almost everyone on the team is offensive minded. Ming may get 8-10 attempts a game. 2) At the onset, we will rely more on Ming's defense than his offense. We do not need Ming to score 20 points a game. Rather, we need him to prevent 20 points from scoring on us. 3) If Ming is getting 10-13 rebounds a game in international play, look for him to get around 8 his rookie season. At 10-12ppg and 8rpg, Ming will not win the ROY. Steve Francis increased his scoring from college to the pros. Jay Will will do the same. The only difference is that Jay Will averaged over 21 ppg in college. 'Nuff said
First year predictions: Jay Williams 18 ppg 6 apg DaJuan Wagner 19 ppg 3 apg Yao Ming 12 ppg 8 rpg Caron Butler aka Paul Pierce 9 ppg 4 rpg ...and Williams beats out Wagner for Rookie of the Year.
