I created a webpage dedicated to showing where the Rockets stand in the current lottery status, and I plan on updating it nightly after the completion of all games. I have lovingly entitled it "Rockets 2000 Tank-A-Thon." Please let me know if you have any ideas or categories that you would like for me to add. If you find it completely useless and see no point for the page, feel free to communicate that as well (but please do it politely and don't make me cry Rockets 2000 Tank-A-Thon
The web-page is great! I've book-marked it. It's nice to have posters provide these specialized services to the fan-community.
Hey nice page... I really like the title graphic.. good job. I'll keep checking in on this page to view our lottery status... tank-a-thon.... thats funny. see you in CHAT rockHEAD
I think you have an error there in "games back" column. Clippers 12 46 Bulls 12 42 2 games back wouldn't that be 4 games back?
It would have to be, right...? "Games Back" means total number of wins/losses by both teams to tie them. If the Bulls lose two and the Clips win two-- four games-- they'd be tied. Cool site anyway!
Joe Joe, thanks for that idea, i went ahead and added the percentages for each slot (1-13) having a chance at getting the #1 overall pick. If anyone else out there knows how to further break down the chances of getting the #2-#13 picks, please let me know. Thanks for all the feedback.
Love the web site If only the Grizz could start to play reasonably well at home I think we might catch them. Also if you finish dead last (first in the tank-a-thon stakes) don't you have to get a top 3 pick?????
great site! the race drops out to be fairly close after us... With all of the losses of late, I would think that we sucked much worse than Vancouver. But if we try... very hard, I think that we can suck it up some more into the 5- area. Hakeem's *AHEM* fatigue should suffice as an excuse.
if we can just rise to the 4 or 5th spot the %chance goes from 6% to 10% 10% gives us a good shot at a top 3 pick
SmeggySmeg, I was also under that impression(that the worst record could get no worse than the #3 pick), but i could not find any other percentages or info to back it up. I am still searching though...
today, The lottery only selects the first 3 positions. This means that the team with the worst record can do no worse than 4th pick. Here's link to verify: http://www.insidestuff.com/news/lottery99_evolution.html
Thanks for the link aelliott. So, all i really am looking for is if anybody can figure out the probabilities for the #2 and #3 picks for the 13 slots. I just finished updating it for tonight's games. Thanks again for all your help.
aelliot, you were reading the historical section of that page. All 14 non-playoff teams are in the lottery. All 14 teams have 'a' chance at the first pick (albeit slim for those higher on the ladder). ex: Charlotte grabbed the 3rd pick last year by chance. There record was much stronger than that. Reasoning for the %age distribution mainly falls on what fact: if a non-playoff team can 'lose' to a position (vs. roughly a %age chance at that position) it could drastically affect playoff seeds as lotto teams could throw games at the end of the season knowing their concrete position. That is (roughly) unlikely now in that the %age difference that the 10-14 teams are going to get a higher chance at 10, for example, vs. 14, drastically drop off w/ those high picks.
Achebe, aelliot, you were reading the historical section of that page. All 14 non-playoff teams are in the lottery. All 14 teams have 'a' chance at the first pick (albeit slim for those higher on the ladder). - First of all there are only 13 teams in the lottery. 29 total teams and 8 from each conference make the playoffs, leaves 13 teams. - You're misunderstanding what my previous post says. "The lottery only selects the first 3 positions". That means that they only draw for the top 3 picks (not all 13 positions). Picks 4 through 13 go by reverse record. Sure all the teams are in the lottery, but that's only for the first 3 picks. So, if every thing goes against the odds and the team with the worst record doesn't get a top 3 pick, they would automatically get the 4th pick. In other words, if a team is going to move up, they have to move into the top 3. You can't move up from say 10th to 4th. Does that make sense now?
today, Go to this link and scroll to the bottom of the page: http://www.insidestuff.com/news/draft_lottery_rules.html They've got a table of the probabilities for each of the 13 teams getting one of the top 3 picks. Did the NBA change the # of chances for some of the teams? Last year's numbers don't seem to match up to what your page has for the lower few teams. [This message has been edited by aelliott (edited March 01, 2000).]
aelliott, thanks for that link as well. I put up those percentages. the previous ones i used were from the '98 or '97 season. Thanks for the help. Time to go root for Vancouver tonight...
aelliot from the same page: The Board of Governors approved a modification of the Lottery system in November of 1993 that, effective with the 1994 NBA Draft Lottery, increased the chances of the teams with the worst records in the league winning one of the top three picks in the draft while decreasing the lottery chances of the teams with the best records. The new system increased the chances of the team with the worst record drawing the first pick in the draft from 16.7 percent to 25 percent, while decreasing the chances of the team with the best record among lottery teams from 1.5 percent to 0.5 percent. Note that it reads that it increased the chances of the teams with the worst records in the league winning one of the top three picks in the draft while decreasing the lottery chances of the teams with the best records. I believe they ended the insurance that the worst team would get a top 4 pick in '89. That is why all 13 (thanks for the correction) have an opportunity at the top picks. It's not exclusionary after pick 3. Does that make sense now?
3rd time lucky after two power failures midway thru writing these previously. I could be wrong but won't the percentages for the 2nd and 3rd picks change depending on who get the 1st and then 2nd picks. For example, if we assume the worst team has 200 combination out of 1000 (200/1000) which is a 20% chance, the Rockets have 100/1000, 10% chance, and the best team has 5/1000, which a 0.5% chance of the top pick. If we just look at the hypothetical rockets chances for the 2nd pick, if the team with the worst record gets the first pick then we have 100 combinations out of 800, which is 12.5%, whereas in the unlikely scenario the team with the best record gets the top pick then the rockets have 100 combinations in 995, which is still a 10% chance. I love the site, but the percentages for 2nd and 3rd picks can't be set until you know who get the 1st and then 2nd pick.
