Rockets' wins likely to decline significantly sans Yao

Rockets' wins likely to decline significantly sans Yao
Jonathan Lee, AccuScore
Thursday, Jul. 2, 2009 - 12:11 p.m. ET

The Houston Rockets are likely to suffer a significant decline in the win column next season should Yao Ming's foot injury prove as serious as has been reported, according to projections from AccuScore.

Reports last month said that Yao may miss next season and that his injury may even be career-threatening.

Without Yao, Luis Scola is expected to step up, according to AccuScore, with forecasted averages of 17 points, 10 rebounds and 3 assists on 50% shooting (with only 2 turnovers per game). Ron Artest, should he stay in Houston, is forecasted to average 22 points, 6 rebound and 5 assists, and Aaron Brooks is projected for 16 points and 4 assists. If Artest plays for the Rockets next season, the team is still projected to have a great chance of making the playoffs, albeit with the 8th best record in the West. Their projected win total with Yao is 55, but that drops to 49 should Yao sit out next season.

Houston would likely win nearly as many games against average and bad teams with or without Yao. But against the NBA's upper echelon, his absence from the lineup would take a serious toll on offensive efficiency. Teams at that level are significantly better defensively on the perimeter and on the boards. A Yao-less version of the Rockets would struggle against the best in the NBA.

Here is how Houston is forecasted to perform against top Western Conference competition with and without Yao. Notice the drop-off in simulation winning percentage (-9%) is more severe than the overall drop-off Houston shows (-7%), lending further support to our conclusion in the previous paragraph.

AccuScore does not expect the Rockets to become a Western Conference doormat without Yao. Yao is a terrific offensive player who shoots over 50% from the field and over 85% from the free throw line. His ability to draw double teams helps perimeter shooters get wide open looks.

No matter how talented he is, however, he has his weaknesses. While he has a reputation as a great passer, Yao averaged only 1.8 assists against 3.0 turnovers last season. While he has averaged double-digit rebounds the past few seasons, he ranked 29th in the league in rebounding rate (rebounds per minute) this season and just 22nd among centers. His raw numbers are less impressive when taking into account his size and number of minutes.

Without Yao on the floor, the Rockets have the personnel to play up-tempo basketball. They lack the ability to get as many wide open looks in half-court sets without Yao, but they can make up for that by creating opportunities in transition.

http://www.sportingnews.com/nba/art...ts-likely-decline-significantly-wins-sans-yao

 

NBA Betting: How Yao's Injury Changes Everything for Rockets
by Matt Severance - 07/01/2009

If you were pondering a futures bet on the Houston Rockets for the 2009-10 NBA season (hey, it's only three months away), don't waste your money. Well, let me temper that statement by saying don't waste your money on those NBA championship odds.

Currently Houston is +1500 to win next season's title on BetUS, but the Rockets have a much better chance of being a lottery team than a playoff team next year with the news that Yao Ming could miss all of the 2009-10 season with that foot injury that hasn't healed and actually has gotten worse. In fact, it might even be career-threatening.

Yao suffered a hairline fracture of a bone in his left foot in the Rockets' second-round playoff loss to the Lakers on May 8, coming in Game 3. Of course, undermanned Houston still managed to put up an inspired effort in being the only team to stretch the champion Lakers to seven games in the playoffs.

http://www.docsports.com/2009/yao-ming-injury-011.html