There are a lot of numbers and assumptions thrown around here about our various players, and I finally dicided to take a look at the numbers as they relate to our players, and our players as they relate to their peers. I originally intended to do it all at once, but frankly it was just too much damned work, so I'll do one position a day. What I did was calculate all the numbers for all starting players in the league, by position, and average out the numbers for each position, including height and weight. The numbers chosen will shift a little based on position, as they relate to them ( for example blocks aren't taken for point guards, 3 pt% isn't taken for centers, etc.). Also I left out teams whose starters have yet to be made clear, like the Clippers at the point. In this case I came up with the average numbers for a starting point guard in the NBA this year, and here we compare them to Steve. Okay, here's what we get: Point Guard X stands 6-3, weighs 187 pounds, and plays 34.75 minutes a game. In that time he averages 15 pts, takes 12.9 shots, makes 6.1 assts, 3.8 rebounds, 1.9 steals, shoots at a .437%, and turns the ball over 2.5 times a game. Steve Francis stands 6-3, weighs 195 lbs, and plays 38.8 minutes. In that time he averages 17.5 pts, on 15.2 shots, dishes out 5.1 assists, grabs 5.6 rebounds, makes 1.4 steals, shoots at a .406%, and turns the ball over 3.7 times a game. I am not going to offer any commentary until I've done the whole team, but surely this will lead to much discussion about Steve, his play, his worth, etc. Some of the numbers may be better than you expected, relative to an average point guard, some may be worse. You can discuss it here if you want, I'll be back tomorrow with Cuttino Mobley vs. Shooting Guard X, and won't give comments until the whole 5 starters are done. Please understand that, as computarily illiterate as I am, this is a serious load of work for me, so be patient. Peace JAG
Wow, Point Guard X kicks Fancy's ass. Outside of rebounding (interesting that you would count rebounding for a PG, didn't want Fancy to look too bad huh?), Steve loses out pretty much everywhere against the league average. It is a travesty that a below average PG is on pace to start in the all star game.
I'll tell you what a travesty is. The Rockets have one of the greatest point guards of all time, and most of you don't realize it.
Of all time? I don't think so. Of this generation, we have one of the good ones, not great, but good.
It'll be sad when the outcry of the fans gets Stevie sent to another team where he will constantly torch it up every night, and especially vs. the Rockets... winning a ring may sooner come for him elsewhere. King JVG has this team playing ATLANTIC division strength offense, and has Steve on a leash IMO. It's never gonna be enough to have Yao and a supporting crew of 4 role players. Yao needs Steve needs Yao needs Steve. And Steve was here first... and sorry... he's a scorer.
How often is Steve out played by the other teams point guard? Granted Steve has shown some improvement in the basic pointguard skills department. He still has a long way to go. Everything he does looks so forced - pure strength & athetic ablity only!
We don't need to put Steve at the 2, I think we just need to put someone at the 2 who can genuinely be a 1. Francis needs to score on 2's, and defend 1's, that's the only way he'll ever be able to utilize all his skills. You move him to the 2, you have a problem. Keep him at the 1, well you can see for yourself... But if you pit him against the right person on offense and defense, everything is OK. Everyone talks about how Iverson has moved to the SG position, but he handles the ball WAY more than any regular SG, and look at his asst, to, and asst/to numbers. If Francis can keep averaging 6 assists and 3 TO's, while havign his backcourt mate average a solid 6 assists and 2 TO's (like Eric Snow), then it will make life easier on EVERY 1.
People keep saying Francis should be a shooting guard. The numbers show why: He puts out 1 fewer assist per game and 1.2 more turnovers per game than the average point guard. (In a minutes-to-minutes comparison, it looks like both would be a deficit of about 1.1) In other words, bad handles and poor passing ability. But oops -- he shoots worse than the average point guard -- never mind the average shooting guard -- by a full 3 percent, which is huge in the NBA. In other words, the reason we keep wanting to move Steve to SG isn't that he's a good SG, but that he's a bad PG. Somebody tell me why, for a guy making the max, this isn't completely damning.
Great job Macbeth. It is interesting to compare Steve against the average PG. I look forward to the rest of your series. Personally, I am going to withhold judgement on Steve until a full year under JVG. This is the 1st year he has had such strict guidlines when running the offense. Steve's defense has definitely improved or at least his willingness to defend has. That is a direct result of JVG. JVG said this team so far behind on offense compared to defense when he took over. The team defense has definitely improved so far and we can ride that against most teams until the offense catches up. Keep the faith guys!!!!
The assist category with Steve isn't really the whole story to his pg abilities. It's how smoothely the team runs with him on the floor. Steve could take it down court and lob it in to Ming in the post every single play. Ming could score on all of those, and STeve would hardly get an assist, because the post player usually creates on his own after getting the ball. Steve could bring the ball up court pass to JJ or Cat and they could pass it in to Yao. Again no assist for Steve. That's basically the kind of half court offense we are trying to run. But if you want to know how smoothly the offense works with Steve in the game, he's second only to Jimmy Jackson with positive point differential for the team while he's on the floor. So while Stevie has some improving to do the assists don't mean he's not distributing the ball.
I agree with this whole-heartedly. What bothers me is that I think you get everything you get in SF with Mobely, PLUS the ability to play lock down defense. Mobes doesn't do it every game but he has definitely shown some strong improvement in defense. I am in favor of trading SF because he is a bad value based on performance at his position vs pay.
I agree with Will on one thing: For someone getting the MAX, I want offense, defense, leadership, and ability to take over the team and carry them when necessary. Right now, Steve's defense has improved tremendously, but that's the point? His offense has dropped off. We should get both from him. I want a damn good well rounded player. I think Steve's game will not change one bit if he plays SG, he'll do all the same things. The difference for our team will be how well his backcourt mate compliments the team. How great would it be if, every time Steve passed to the SG, that SG was a player that doesn't turn the ball over much, is poised at running the offense, and is eager to pass it to Yao WHENEVER HE'S OPEN. I'm not saying Mobley is doing anything wrong. He's scoring, at a great percentage from everywhere, and playing superb defense as well. He's playing his heart out, and you can tell he bleeds Rockets blood. However, that's not exactly what we need.
So, you want to judge Steve Francis's ability as a point guard based on his production over 20 games? From a guy who's trying to adapt to running a new offensive scheme with a new coach? When you've got a career record of 313 games to look at? Here are some career numbers: 39.4 minutes .436 shooting 19.9 ppg 6.3 assists 6.2 boards 1.6 steals 3.7 turnovers Will Saletan, you're judging Francis's passing ability on a sample of 20 games? He's pulled more than the league average for his career. And as for bad handles, he certainly needs to improve his assist-to-turnover ration. But alot of the TO's he gets are often the result of offensive fouls, which doesn't speak to his handles at all. Francis shoots right at the league average for point guards, based on career stats. More over-reactionary observations based on statistics compiled from less than a quarter of a season. Maybe because a guy is judged by his career, not by a handful of games? Good lord, imagine how the BBS Chicken Littles would react if we weren't tied for the lead in the Midwest Division. "The sky is falling, the sky is falling!"
And you base this on what....highlight reels, slam dunk contests? Steve has terrific athleticism and he's a great competitor, but he IS NOT a great point guard. A point gaurd's job is that similar of a quarterback. He's got to be able to see the whole field, what the defense is doing and make adjustments. He distributes the ball. Most importantly though, I think that he must PROTECT the ball. Right now, Steve "fumbles" the ball way more than he should. Please don't misunderstand me here, I'm not saying we should trade him. I believe that if you give him time he could develop into a great point gaurd. He just needs to practice being patient, layoff the highlight reel acrobatics and work on his passing skills. In other words, don't make any easy play difficult.
SamCassell, Even when you compare Steve's career numbers to the average, he's not good enough. Steve Francis needs to be averaging numbers compareable to the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd best PG's in the league. His TO's are from bouncing of his foot? Offensive fouls? I don't really care. Stop getting offensive fouls then. Stop running into traffic. Stop thinking you have great handles when you obviously don't. Take better care of the ball. Whatever problem Steve has with turning the ball over, it can be fixed. No one HAS to turn the ball over more than 2 or 3 times per game, UNLESS they're averaging 8 or 9+ assists. Steve is always near the WORST in terms of TO's and ASST/TO ratio among PG's. Maybe the fact that it's so difficult for Steve Francis to rack up the assist (based on Mobley, Yao and Mo's styles) means that this team is not built well? One thing's for sure: Steve Francis is NOT playing well so far this season, and I don't think anyone will argue that.
MESSAGE TO MOBLEY FANS!!!! Just wait until MacBeth posts Mobley's numbers... You'll see that Mobley plays HIS ROLE just fine! A SHOOTING GUARD. He's not that bad when you look at it that way. But having TWO SHOOTING GUARDS on the floor at the same time, while one is supposed to be our POINT GUARD just doesn't work! And it really shows you the turnover proneness of one Francis. The mere fact that Mobley has only turned the ball over 2.18 times average for his whole career is great for a SG. Hint: Mobley KNOWS HIS LIMITATIONS AS A PLAY MAKER. Francis just *thinks* that he's "Magic." No Francis. You're just a very good shooting guard. Note: This idea that point guards are supposed to turn the ball over more than SG, SF, PF, C is pure bunk. Their TOs are supposed to be less than those other positions.
That why JVG has lessened his role. Not because it helps the team, but because it hurts the team lesss.
