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Rockets vs Warriors 3 pt math

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by khanhdum, Feb 15, 2018.

  1. khanhdum

    khanhdum Member

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    Incredible write up on how the Rockets can upset the Warriors in the playoffs
     
  2. JayZ750

    JayZ750 Contributing Member

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    I saw this yesterday.

    A related point, imo... when Kerr first installed his system, he didn't really have players you'd consider amazing isolation one on one guys. I mean Curry clearly became that, but still in a different way than a Harden. So he put in this system, which in turn had players running all over the place, defenses getting switched and switched and switched, open shots, and a rhythm. Curry gets better, Klay gets better, add KD. Meanwhile, of course, Iggy gets older and for whatever reason Draymond can't shoot threes anymore.

    With their current lineup, in reality, they are as well suited to "ditch" their offense and just switch to what the Rockets do. Which is PnR and spacing.

    Here's a blurb on the Curry-KD pick and roll: http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/...uding-kevin-durant-steph-curry-pick-rolls-nba

    Basically, Kerr's going to have to do some coaching. Does he limit his offense and do more of this?

    Relative to the Rockets, well the Rockets are better. Better two way players than last year.

    And then just the math. Which is where DM came in. 36.7% is "comparatively" low compared to GSW. But it's still 110.1 points per 100 possessions/shots. It's the equivalent of a 55% shooting %. The Rockets are currently at 114.1 ... so it isn't exactly saying just shoot 100% threes. They're boosting their offense even more with the paint shots and free throws of course. But with the way they play, given they shoot threes at 36.7%, they are basically saying absent fast break layups, wide open lanes, we are going to start every possession looking for a three. If it's guarded or a bit more difficult than usual, we'll go in for the two. And then they've given that decision making to JH and CP3. And there's just no way to defend that.

    So come playoffs, if they do what they should and meet GSW in the WCF... it will be a matter of who shows up every game, which players give 200% hustle and don't let the moment overpower them, and of course if/how they can make life a bit difficult for GSW. Unfortunately Harden, CP3 and MDA are fighting against their past results on these measures, but perhaps they've finally got enough fire power all around to get them over the hump.
     
  3. DavidRocket

    DavidRocket Member

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    Harden/CP3/MDA have gone through quite a few seasons of despair and disappointment. They are all seasoned vets at this point and this marriage of all 3 is probably exactly what was needed to get them all over the hump.

    They've got a great GM that's assembled a great team around them. Outside of health, I believe they know from their experiences what it takes to win it all and more importantly, they want to do it right. I don't see Harden/CP3 being overly cocky. They appear to be on a mission to win the ring. These are guys are serious about it and as you said, the elite PG presence on the floor for 48 min a game....NO TEAM can stop that.

    CP3s midrange game has been another Godsend this season. He's money (we all knew that). It's so refreshing to have him on the Rockets now doing that to other teams now. Those are momentum and at times back breakers for other teams. CP3's midrange game is SO reliable and coupled with Harden's not so shabby midrange game.........they BETTER win it all this year lol.
     
  4. JayZ750

    JayZ750 Contributing Member

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    Absolutely.

    And to be clear, I don't think under-performing in high pressure situation as a professional athlete makes you a bad person or anything. It's something that's INCREDIBLY hard to measure, to change, etc. I know from personal experience as a mediocre street player in my youth, when going up against tougher opponents, I'd have times when I absolutely got "tighter" in my game. Then I'd have other times where I just didn't give an "f", got in a zone, etc. I'd rather it was the later 90%+ of the time... but it was what it was, and certainly as not a pro I wasn't focused on it, training for it, etc.

    Point being... maybe getting all three of them together plus the role players, and system and experience gets them over the hump... with that hump truly being one of the greatest collections of talent on one team in modern NBA history... maybe it doesn't. Only time will tell.
     
  5. cerophilik

    cerophilik Member

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    Two thumbs up. I like it.
    Good read, the team isn’t even all set we got some new pieces like Brandan Wright and Joe Johnson and we might or might not get one more person from the buyouts. The team still is getting better and I bet Eric will be shooting the 3 better or I hope so. If or when he does it will increase our chances of winning it all. Also Ryan might start shooting kore or hesitate less. Now that the trade deadline has passed he can focus on playing and shooting. That and having joe and Brandan for insurance is good to have. Can’t wait to beat the warriors and get a chip :)
     
  6. AroundTheWorld

    AroundTheWorld Insufferable 98er
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    Anderson will be more important to our success than most people think. He is an elite 3-point shooter.
     
    mikol13 likes this.
  7. heypartner

    heypartner Contributing Member

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    Overall, he made a good post. While he gets the volume over % math, I don't think he fully grasps all of Morey and MDA's math skills, because he said this twice

    To further enumerate how insane that is, the best shooting team in the world, shooting the best, most efficient shot [referring to three pointers]
    Three pointers are NOT the most efficient shot. Layups and free throws are...it's the triad that Morey and MDA are all about....and you can see fans across the league (in this case Reddit) still don't grasp this, or are just now getting up to speed with Morey and cfnet.

    So it's the three-pronged attack of 3s, layups and FTs, and since Harden is so devastating at driving and ooping to Capela, this leads to high volume 3s as defenses must take away the Layup, Dunk and FT drill first. When guys at Reddit fully grasp what many of us have been understanding for over a year of Morey and MDA preaching it, they will not be so surprised how Harden has higher efficiency on ISO than someone shooting 39% on threes does, in this case GSW as a team.

    It's going to take a deep run by the Rockets before fans give this math a closer look.
     
    D-rock, MONON and ElPigto like this.
  8. tmacfor35

    tmacfor35 Contributing Member

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    I ain’t going to lie. My peanut brain just figured it out reading these post.
     
  9. MONON

    MONON Member

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    That's what the media & people forget. It's not the 3pt math, it's not the ft's & it's not the layups. It's all 3 combined. Don't foul & you give up layups & 3pters. Stop the layups & you give up 3's. Stop the 3's & you open up the lanes for layups. The only way the Rockets loose is if they don't hit their shots or don't play D.
     

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