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Rockets/Spurs/Lakers: statistical comparison of the winning streaks

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by topfive, Mar 8, 2008.

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  1. topfive

    topfive CF OG

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    <BR>
    Talking heads on the sports shows have been babbling on incessantly<BR> about how the Rockets' win streak is against inferior competition. While<BR> that may be true, their schedule wasn't as weak as it might seem at first<BR> glance. Here's the proof.

    I loaded up some data into a database and took a look at the Rockets'<BR> 17-game win streak versus the Spurs 11-game streak and the Lakers'<BR> recent 10-game streak. I was too lazy to factor in things like the winning<BR> percentage of the opponents at the time of the games or how hot they<BR> might have been then. I simply used their records as of the start of the<BR> day Friday, which still gives a pretty good indication as to the strength<BR> of the opponent.

    I also didn't bother to put it in a table. Sue me. ;) Here goes...

    <BR>
    consecutive wins

    HOU - 17 - 65% @ home (11 games)
    SAN - 11 - 55% @ home (6 games)
    LAL - 10 - 30% @ home (3 games)

    The Rockets are the clear-cut winner here, although we've benefited<BR> from a home-heavy schedule.



    combined opponent overall winning percentage
    HOU - .454
    SAN - .455
    LAL - .376

    combined opponent home winning percentage
    HOU - .578
    SAN - .552
    LAL - .452

    combined opponent road winning percentage
    HOU - .352
    SAN - .357
    LAL - .297

    combined home winning percentage of teams defeated on road
    HOU - .578
    SAN - .516
    LAL - .432

    combined road winning percentage of teams defeated at home
    HOU - .374
    SAN - .381
    LAL - .233

    The strength of schedule for both the Rockets and Spurs during their<BR> streaks roughly equal. The Lakers played a *vastly* easier schedule,<BR> facing only 3 teams above .500 -- Magic, Suns and Blazers.



    average margin of victory in all games
    HOU - 12.7 pts
    SAN - 8.5 pts
    LAL - 15.2 pts

    average margin of victory in home games
    HOU - 14.1 pts
    SAN - 11.5 pts
    LAL - 20.0 pts

    average margin of victory in road games
    HOU - 10.0 pts
    SAN - 5.0 pts
    LAL - 13.1 pts

    Again, the Rockets are clearly ahead of the Spurs. The Lakers are<BR>the overall winners in margin of victory, but that's because they played<BR> mostly bad teams.



    overall games
    HOU - 53% east / 47% west
    SAN - 73% east / 27% west
    LAL - 50% east / 50$ west

    home games
    HOU - 55% east / 45% west
    SAN - 67% east / 33% west
    LAL - 67% east / 33% west

    road games
    HOU - 50% east / 50% west
    SAN - 80% east / 20% west
    LAL - 43% east / 57% west

    The Spurs played a *much* higher percentage of Eastern Conference<BR> foes during their streak.



    overall road victories
    HOU - 6 (35%)
    SAN - 5 (45%)
    LAL - 7 (70%)

    road victories against teams with home records > .600
    HOU - 3 (50%)
    SAN - 1 (20%)
    LAL - 2 (29%)

    The Lakers won 7 games on the road, but against inferior competition.<BR>The Spurs only played 1 of their 5 road games against a good home opponent.



    overall home victories
    HOU - 11 (65%)
    SAN - 6 (55%)
    LAL - 3 (30%)

    home victories against teams with road records > .400
    HOU - 4 (36%)
    SAN - 2 (33%)
    LAL - 0 ( 0%)

    Again, the Rockets played a bigger percentage of their streak games<BR>at home -- but against more Western conference teams. The Lakers'<BR> three home victories were against pathetic road teams.



    Bottom line: The Rockets' winning streak is simply more impressive than the<BR>Spurs' streak -- if you do your homework. Today's media is, for the most part, lazy.

    The Spurs and Rockets had very similar schedules, with a couple of big<BR> differences: 1) The Rockets played a schedule heavier with Western<BR> Conference teams; 2) Compared to the Spurs', the Rockets' road games<BR> were against teams that are better at home and their home games were<BR> against teams that are better on the road.

    The Lakers streak, on the other hand, WAS piled up against crappy<BR> teams. None of the writers mentioned THAT while it was going on <BR> because they were too busy polishing up the Larry O'Brien Trophy for them.

    While I can't say how the Rockets' current streak compares to the other<BR> all-time winning streaks, my theory is that most of them came during<BR> easier parts of a schedule.

    One last interesting stat: Most of us see that the Rockets have gradually<BR> gotten better and better over the course of the streak, and the stats<BR> bear that out. During the first 9 games, our average margin of victory<BR> was 8.56 points. During the most recent 8 games, it was more than twice as much<BR> at 17.25, while the level of competition remained roughly the same overall.<BR><BR>
     
    #1 topfive, Mar 8, 2008
  2. Uprising

    Uprising Member

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    Spurs steak is over! GO ROCKETS!!!!
     
    #2 Uprising, Mar 8, 2008
  3. LittleWilly

    LittleWilly Member

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    All I can say is the Rockets have been blowing teams out lately, even though Yao has been out the last few. I can only hope that they keep the chip on their shoulder while fighting for a good playoff seed. The only team I don't want to see in the first round is Utah.
     
    #3 LittleWilly, Mar 8, 2008
  4. robbie380

    robbie380 ლ(▀̿Ĺ̯▀̿ ̿ლ)
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    wow! awesome post! i had been wanting to do the research on this but had been too lazy. great stats to look at and let's hope the rockets keep it up later today! need more exclamation points!!!
     
    #4 robbie380, Mar 8, 2008
  5. FFz

    FFz Member

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    nice! but i was expecting a simple 17 > 11 > 10.
     
    #5 FFz, Mar 8, 2008
  6. kokopuffs

    kokopuffs Member

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    excellent post. Congratulations.
     
    #6 kokopuffs, Mar 8, 2008
  7. songdi

    songdi New Member

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    you are the man, bro!
     
    #7 songdi, Mar 8, 2008
  8. Champ06

    Champ06 Member

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    Spurs vs. Rockets winning streaks

    Web Posted: 03/08/2008 01:02 AM CST


    San Antonio Express-News

    The Spurs lost their 11-game winning streak in Denver on Friday, while the Rockets have a 17-game winning streak. The Rockets' streak is longer, but is it more impressive? Let's compare:

    Opponents: Seven teams were above .500 when the Rockets faced them during their winning streak, while the Spurs have faced five teams above .500.

    Sites: The Rockets have played seven of their 17 games on the road, while the Spurs were on the road for six games. Four of the Rockets' road games have been against teams above .500, compared to three for the Spurs.

    Injury obstacles: The Rockets lost Yao Ming for the season five games ago, and Tracy McGrady missed the first game of the streak. Tony Parker missed the first three games of the Spurs' streak.

    Back-to-backs: The Rockets have had to play on consecutive days three times, and the Spurs have had to do so twice.

    Average margin of victory: The Rockets have won by 12.6 points per game during their streak; the Spurs by 8.5.

    Settling matters: The Rockets are still rolling and they don't meet the Spurs until March 30, when they play at the AT&T Center.

    http://www.mysanantonio.com/sports/...s/MYSA030808.01C.BKNspurs.streak.4009ea6.html
     
    #8 Champ06, Mar 8, 2008
  9. dookiester

    dookiester Member

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    so where's the conclusion saying "yes, the rockets winning sreak has been more impressive"?

    someone should send topfive's statistical comparison in to the chronicle or some other outlet. not because media recognition is something we are striving to attain but because the level of denial and inequitable treatment of rockets success is unjustifiably ignorant. the spurs streak doesn't bother me so much as the lakers, who really were being proclaimed as the championship favorites without once being asked, as the rockets are now, to name one good team they've beaten. oh, and the now 3-6 shaq-ified suns don't count.
     
    #9 dookiester, Mar 8, 2008
  10. Bandwagoner

    Bandwagoner Member

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    well its pretty obvious from his points which one was more impressive in his opnion. There are stats that point otherwise but all of his pointed to the Rox.
     
    #10 Bandwagoner, Mar 8, 2008
  11. br0ken_shad0w

    br0ken_shad0w Member

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    That works too.
     
    #11 br0ken_shad0w, Mar 8, 2008
  12. magnetik

    magnetik Member

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    too bad the media can't do there homework as well as you did.
     
    #12 magnetik, Mar 8, 2008
  13. jlwee

    jlwee Member

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    Cos the media also busy rubbing kobe and his lakers' balls! :mad:
     
    #13 jlwee, Mar 8, 2008
  14. khanhdum

    khanhdum Member

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    good job man, very impressive
     
    #14 khanhdum, Mar 8, 2008
  15. kejohn

    kejohn Member

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    what stats are you referring to?
     
    #15 kejohn, Mar 8, 2008
  16. Jeremiah

    Jeremiah Member

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    Topfive- that's a FANTASTIC analysis. It's right there in black and white: we're the best team in the NBA. No doubt about it.

    You should send this out to every 'talking head' out there and it might get some play and shut some of the haters up. (Shame on you, Jon Barry).
     
    #16 Jeremiah, Mar 8, 2008
  17. Joe Joe

    Joe Joe Go Stros!
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    Just a point of reference...

    The best ten opponents Rockets faced have an average winning percentage of .552 and the best eleven have a percentage of .538.
     
    #17 Joe Joe, Mar 8, 2008
  18. tiger0330

    tiger0330 Member

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    Nice post. I am saving this to send to the next guy that tells me the Rox haven't beaten anybody in this winning streak.
     
    #18 tiger0330, Mar 8, 2008
  19. mtran

    mtran Member

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    well the spurs and the lakers both lost so we dont have to worry about anything...
     
    #19 mtran, Mar 8, 2008
  20. MYM[Moon

    MYM[Moon Member

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    Recently most medium make light of the rox's 17 winning streak and look
    down on our team unreasonable which made us rox' fans spit the medium
    and someone like Barkly...

    But I think the phenomenon in another way indicates that the relationship between the rocket official and the mass media is not good...

    We all know Les... maybe his notorious stingy have some relevancy?
    :rolleyes:
     
    #20 MYM[Moon, Mar 8, 2008
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