Over the past few months I have compiled an estimate of the Rockets Salary and Contract position. Finally, I got off my butt and put it on the web so everyone can see it and correct me where I'm wrong. I know a lot of the info is sketchy, and take special note of Mobley's $2.2 Mil Contract starting next year that I "assumed" http://rocketdavo.tripod.com
Well, the biggest problem you're going to have is that the numbers you use for future seasons are the yearly averages. It is hard (and not always possible) to get the actual yearly figures, I know. However, there are some things you can do to get around that or at least get closer approximations. 1) Pat has at http://www.dfw.net/~patricia/misc/salaries99.txt the '98-'99 salaries (nothing more recent). From this you know Olajuwon's salary was $12,943,000. 2) You can probably assume all our rookies got the maximum allowed by their draft position. That is something the Rockets would do and something I have a vague recollection of actually being done. And I believe you can find the rookie scale around somewhere. 3) Knowing the contract total and the number of years, and assuming a 10% or 12% raise each year (depending on Bird Rights), you can calculate a better approximation. I did this once for Pippen (then threw away the paper). And, on a different note, the page does not denote player or team options, which will be important to cap flexibility down the line.
Thanks Juan, Your point 3 is valid, but only for players signed under the new CBA, which provides for such increases over the course of a contract. Most of our guys are still in contracts signed under the old CBA.
Dave My firm has a firewall blocking me from sending unregistered emails (I can get around it, but it is tiresome and my nonconformity will be noted at the tech admin office, again,LOL) so will throw this up for your perusual here: 1. When they restructured Hakeem's contract there was some backdating, forwarding and prorating done to affect a period greater than the five year extension. However your figures are close. Patricia's 2004 is in error. 2. Despite being listed as a free agent(FA)signing with Chicago, Maloney is stil a "waived" player and his salary is paid by the Rockets except for an administrative fee and a minimal scaled amount. He may opt for a buy out,depending on what happens to him in Chicago this year. Figures look accurate. 3. Massenburg, Shaw, McLean and Gray all have contracts that will be up at the end of this season. That's my understanding of the contracts, through published reports and statements they made. 4. A couple of guys like Francis and Thomas have forward weighted contracts. That means that their contracts call for a prescribed ever-increasing amount as the contract ages. So a contract of say, $7M over four years does not mean it is $2M (7/4)a year or $1.75M a year. It would be more like: $1.5M,then $1.65M, then $1.85M,then $2.M for the fourth year. This is not significant except when we are talking $14Million or $20Million contracts. Then the jumps are expodentially greater (in the neighborhood of a million per year). 5. IMHO, Mobley will ask for $4.0 Million a year for four years straight up (no forward weighting). I also think he will get it. Either from us or as a sign and trade to go elsewhere. Hey Dave, thanks for the site. I have bookmarked it. Larry Coon's CBA link and Patricia Bender's general link makes it even more appropriate. Great job!! [This message has been edited by popeye (edited February 15, 2000).]
Thanks Popeye, I agree with you that Mobley will command $4mil/year, but my thinking is that he may sign a 1 year deal for the mid level exception (approx $2 mil) after this year. By doing this he: a) Will get full bird rights at the end of the one year b) Allows the rockets to be in the Free Agent hunt after that year(when Hakeem retires), and after aquiring a free agent(s), can sign mobley to a bird contract for his asking price (around $4 mil) c) Shows some loyalty to the Rockets and Rudy who gave him his big chance. Hence, the table shows him earning mid level money next year, and $4mil after that.
davo, Olajuwon will make $14.3 million this year. See: http://cnnsi.com/basketball/nba/news/1999/11/22/nba_salaries/ And the total team salary is $53.5 million. See: http://cnnsi.com/basketball/nba/news/2000/01/27/top_payrolls/ You're pretty close, but not quite on it.
Davo, Here's a few more minor changes: - Cato is in the final year of his rookie deal and makes $1.3M this year. - Cato's new deal is 6 years/$42M - Brian Shaw should be making the 10Yr veteran minimum of $1M, but only $500K of that counts against the cap. - Thomas Hamilton should be counting $500K against this years cap. - I believe Don MacLean has another year left on his deal after this year. - Shandon Anderson should be making 2.4M next year. That's the 10% raise per year that is allowed on the exception. -Hakeem's salary for next year should be more like $16M -Kenny Thomas' salary should be $715K, $768K and $822K over the first three years of the deal.
Davo this is Great Thanks...with a bbs consensus agreement I'd be willing to bet Clutch might put some sort of link to your site somewhere. Anyone, if you can accept some input, we'd be well on our way to having the most accurate salary page for the Rockets on the Internet. This would be very useful because then us posters can point people to it anytime there is a salary question. Here's some input: Take input from aelliot, Juan and dreamshake...they'd done their own research. Popeye is right that Patricia can't keep up with everything. I would assume her to be right, but I'd believe research from this board over here entire NBA compilation. I have one thing to add right now for absolute certain. Your Cato numbers are wrong. Aelliot is right, and I have a Chronicle link to show it as well. CBA Rules to Help Estimate Real Numbers not Yearly Ave 1. Contract salaries can never go down from year to year. 2. Raises are capped at a 12.5% yearly for bird re-signings (not compounded; ie, 12.5% of first year, then just use that number as the yearly raise). 3. Everything else is 10% 4. Assume Francis got top of his slot. That number is in the CBA. Start with that and give him a 10% raise. See if that gets you close...remember, these are not compounded raises (don't keep applying the %, just keep added the first raise each year). I've done a mathematical estimate of Cato's salary, and if you give up a 12.5% raise every year, his first year would be $5.3M. Dreamshake confirmed my math as I recall. Also, why don't you get together with Aelliot and mark down which players are Base-Year Compensation players. Anyhow, cheers,,,put it up and people we help you. [This message has been edited by heypartner (edited February 22, 2000).]
About Shandon aelliot is right about the 10%, but you are using the wrong base. It is $2 this year. So. $2 + $2.2 + $2.4 = ---- $6.6m
Cato I found my thread on Cato: $5.333 base assuming a full 12.5% raise = $42m in six years. His raise would be $666K each year $5.3333 + $5.9999 + $6.6666 + $7.3333 + $7.9999 + $8.6666 = ----------- $41.99 that's pretty close for a quick easy summation $
davo while you're at it, can you get hakeem's last name spelled correctly: OLAJUWON. in the realm of things, minor. but for some reason little things like that irk me. i like what you've done, though. thanks...
Thanks for all your input - I have updated the page with all the new values (including correcting Hakeem's spelling - shame on me) Not sure whether it is worth identifying Base Year Contract players yet - I think Cato is our only one, plus it is only used when calculating trade values. aelliot - I upped Kenny Thomas's rookie scale contract by 20% above your numbers for each year. Patricia Bender tells me that you can pay up to 120% of the rookie scale value, and I'm assuming the Rockets did just that.
Patricia gives the real total on rookies, No? If so, you shouldn't have to guess on KT, just give him a 10% raise and see what works...the 100% rookie scale base or the 120%. Also, personally I don't like to average-out all years to be the same. You will miss big dollars to the end of a contract. Many of us are in agreement based on previous Patricia years, that Walt should be at $5m next year. You're right: The Base Year Compensation suggestion is unneeded for free agents, but it is crucial for trades. Many trade rumors can be disspelled by showing BYC problems. Just a suggestion.
Davo, great information. How about converting this into an HTML table so we can cut and paste into Excel and crunch the numbers some more in our free time? (Don't worry about it if it's a big project though.)
heypartner, - The Kenny Thomas numbers shown in each year are very close to Patricia's (within $100,000) total contract value) - Not many of the "average" values are used. Bullard and Williams are amongst those that are, but I will try and correct them as well. I used the averages early on when I was being less accurate. lobo I will either convert the table to html OR put the excel file on the page for download. Sorry about the embedded jpg table but its easier (for me anyway) to post. [This message has been edited by davo (edited February 23, 2000).]
That's an interesting idea, but of course the danger in not excercising your restricted free agency is that once you renounce Mobley, he's free to sign with any other team. It wouldn't be the first time a player agreed to a deal with a team and then changed their mind. Remember Lamond Murray and the Spurs last summer? Here's a couple of questions: 1. if we restrict Mobley with a qualifying offer, he now counts 130% of current salary plus the offer sheet's value (double whammy) I was under the impression that an unsigned Early Bird player (regardless of right of first refusal) counted 130% of their previous year's contract. Are you sure that an offer sheet would also count? I can't find anything in the FAQ about the offer sheet counting in addition to the 130%. NOTE: we can't really renounce TMass in this similar fashion, because then we can't resign him using Bird exception. If we renounce TMass, it will be to lose him. Why wouldn't we have Bird rights on Massenburg? He's finishing up a 3 year contract.
I don't know what Murray's situation was: but Mobley is one year from Full Bird rights. I don't see him voluntarily leaving the Rockets, for both greed and loyalty. Do you really think there's a chance in hell he'll leave unless someone flat out outbids us above our cap allowances? About the Double Whammy. See #13. Yes, I confirmed the Double Whammy. I don't see the Rockets taking this Double Whammy. About TMass: Renounced players cannot be signed under any Bird exceptions for a year. To re-sign one, you must use other exceptions or have room under the cap. I was pointing out counting TMass at $0 is not going to happen for the very reason that he will have Full Bird rights. So, I vote for being creative. As GM, I'm not restricting Mobley. What good is it going to do. If a team can fit more that the $2.2m under the cap, and want to use it on Mobley, they can tender an offer that beats us anyhow. We can't outbid the Middle-class exception; certainly not when our offer sheet counts towards the cap...and note how that cap is $34m until August 1st. Davo...don't count your chickens.... Mobley does not count $2.2m. Leave some room for creativity. If not $0, put him down for only 130% of current salary until he signs a contract. [This message has been edited by heypartner (edited February 24, 2000).]
heypartner - point taken, i will adjust Mobley's salary down to 130% of this years($392,500). I cannot figure out your double wammy and cannot find anywhere in the Salary Cap FAQ that this is referenced. There is nothing to stop us performing the same trick on massenberg, however ony one of them could be given the mid level exception(although the other could settle for the $1mil exception). What I did notice in the Salary Cap FAQ was the last point in item 13 The amount of any unused exceptions available to the team (see question number 16) (should be counted towards your salary cap) That would have serious implications if you were just under the cap. What is your guys take on that?
Man, you guys complicate the CBA and don't want to believe anyone else's legwork. This is exhausting. The Double Whammy is in #13 where it says salary figures for unrenounced free agents count, and salaries figures in offer sheets count. They both count. If you give Mobley an offer sheet, he must also be unrenounced. That's the Double Whammy. Sure, that sounds unfair, so I sought out confirmation. Davo...I have confirmation on this. But if you are anything like aelliot, you probably won't believe me even though I've been email pals with Larry Coon for about 8 months now. I can appreciate wanting to see it in writing yourself, but it exhausting trying to help and then seeing non-believer comments at every turn. Do you want me to send the email about the Double Whammy; I'll have to go search for it. Hear: let me set the record straight. Aelliot has caught me in the wrong from speaking of the cuff, and I have conceding everytime. But, when I say I have done legwork and got confirmation, I'm backing that with my word that I'll quit capology if I got the statement wrong. Trust people or not. The FAQ is not where you find creative solutions. Concerning the TMass issue: Let me explain it this way, if you want to keep both TMass and Mobley, what are your options. 1. Mobley's highest salary is essentially the Middle Class, because he doesn't have Full Bird status, and we won't have cap room to use on him. 2. TMass is Full Bird, which means you can pay him anything he deserves; which is certainly more than the $1m exception. I don't think he'll stand for that. 3. Mobley certainly wants to retain Bird rights to obtain Full Bird status next year. 4. If you renounce Mobley, he won't leave unless he's willing to restart his Bird status with another team--unlikely 5. If you renounce TMass, he loses his Full Bird status for a year. So how can you re-sign him? Do you really think he'll sign for the $1m. And wouldn't it be better to save that for someone else since you only get 1 of those every two years. I don't know how better to simplify this other than to say it doesn't make sense to renounce a Full Bird unless you do not intend to re-sign him. I really think sometimes this board complicates the CBA. Try rethinking it from the standpoint of what a GM wants to achieve, and it primarily attempts to close loopholes for sidestepping the spirit of free agency and keeping players with the teams who drafted them. [This message has been edited by heypartner (edited February 24, 2000).]
