Assuming that Joey Dorsey signs a three-year deal with the Rockets this week with the third year a team option, then the Rockets will be in a very interesting position with respect to its power forward situation in the summer of 2010. Luis Scola will be entering restricted free agency. And the Rockets will have team options on Carl Landry, Chuck Hayes and Joey Dorsey AT THE SAME TIME. The Rockets will completely be in the driver's seat at that time. Whichever players are playing at the highest level by then will have their options picked up. Scola, who will likely be the best player of the bunch over the next two seasons, will be 30 when he hits free agency. His advanced age for a restricted free agent will detract many otherwise willing suitors. His price tage will be much higher than Landry's was this summer, but the Rockets will have total control over how negotiations play out with Luis and his agent. Landry will either show improvement over the next two years or continue to suffer from knee injuries. If he shows improvement from his rookie season, then picking up his option will be a no-brainer. If he is constantly injured, then the Rockets can always decide not to exercise the option. Hayes, by this time, will have either cemented himself as a valuable contributor in his new role as spot-minute defensive specialist or found himself as an overpaid cheerleader. If the former, then the Rockets might decide he's worth the expense at under $2M for 2010-2011. If the latter, then the Rockets would likely cut ties with Chuck. Dorsey, as both a rookie and an undersized center, has the highest "bust factor" of any of these players. If Joey shows the defensive tenacity and rebounding prowess that he showed at Memphis, then the Rockets would be silly not to exercise his option at under $1M. However, if Dorsey flames out, then the Rockets would probably cut ties. Bottom line: Assuming that no trades of these players are made (which is a large assumption, since one of them will likely be traded if all of them play well), then the Rockets will be in the enviable position of being able to decide whether to keep each one of their power forwards without the obligation of keeping any of them.
I would let them all walk, free up money to make a run at LeBron, Wade and resign McGrady for a smaller salary and let him play his natural position. Point Forward. FLAAAAAAAAME. In all seriousness. I hope we continue to see improvement out of all them. Landry and Scola i can only hope will be our 1-2 punch and i only see Hayes as the only one out of the bunch who's future with the team could be cut.
not that I don't love your enthusiasm for trades and contract situations, but... can we focus on this year first. By 2010 we could have traded two or three of them. Edit: you know now that I think about it... this is probably the first time in a long time that the Rockets have had that flexibility at the PF spot. I wonder if Morey has like a big timeline graph in his office the ends in 2010. And that's his "win by this year or bust" poster.
It's quite a reach thinking about this 2 years ahead of time. Wouldn't be surprised if the only one on the team will be Scola. But if Landry is healthy, I imagine the Rockets would exercise the $3 million option on his contract. Dorsey will probably be a complete scrub or not in the NBA. If Chuck doesn't get many minutes behind Carluis Scolandry the next 2 seasons, he may end up out of work.
as of right now im not too concern about that, we HAVE the players now to succeed, im worry about winning.
Thanks for giving my thread a second though As some of you may recall, I was the one who started the big thread earlier this summer about Morey's salary cap machinations between now and 2010 to go after guys like Chris Bosh. However, much of that changed when the Rockets traded for Artest. If he plays well this year and the Rockets achieve post-season success, then Ron Ron will likely be signed to a large long-term deal in 2009. This, combined with extensions for Tracy and Yao, the re-signing of Scola, and the need for a new point guard if Rafer is not re-signed, means that the Rockets will probably not be in the sweepstakes for any max-caliber free agents. Anyway, back to the purpose of the thread, I think Morey DOES have a chart that shows exactly what I'm talking about with Scola, Landry, Hayes and Dorsey. I'm guessing that Morey has planned this precisely how it played out (although the Landry situation was the biggest wild card). Having potentially four good players playing the same position, and ALL of them are either restricted free agents or team options at the SAME TIME is pretty unbelievable.
Actually i would not mind 2nd pickings. With everyone gearing for the max contract players, rox could come in hard to the 2nd row of players that will be free then. As i believe a few teams will take the chance not to take the team option on RFA. Players like rudy gay for example. Morey could offer the entire ME on him, and force memphis to take action, if they are thinking of the sweepstakes, then we could caught them in no mans lands.
There are a couple of much bigger contracts set to expire around that time. It's not gonna be just PF the Rockets are deciding on.
What Morey is EXCELLENT at is acquiring assets ...not just players. You can have a good player that isn't much of an asset (Check Hayes) or a crappy player that is a good asset (Bonzi Wells). The best part about our PF spot is we have lots of assets. No way they are all on this team in 2010. But it definately will give us flexibility to make more trades.
Unless I'm missing something, I don't see any reason why Scola would be restricted. He's not playing on a rookie deal, the rox broke into their mle to sign him.
Of course there are. That's not my point. My point is that, WITH RESPECT TO THE PF POSITION, the Rockets are in a unique and interesting position.
Just a heck of a post. I hadn't "connected the dots" like you obviously did. The Rocks are really sitting pretty at the 4 spot! Was wondering... do you see the team offering Luis an extension early?
The fan side of me says worry about today, today and tomorrow, tomorrow. But the business side of all this is nice planning.
Thanks for the kinds words, Deckard and Sir Jackie Chiles. Nice to know that my thoughts are appreciated. Deckard, as for extending Scola, I think much of that may rest on what happens with Artest and T-Mac next summer. If T-Mac agrees to an extension at a reduced salary (e.g., not top five salary in the league like he has now), and if Artest doesn't work out and leaves in free agency, then the Rockets will likely look to 2010 as a golden opportunity to open up some cap room and go after free agents. If that happens, the Rockets would be crazy to extend Scola. They would have him locked in for 2009-2010 at around $3.3M, and his caphold next summer (based on that salary) will probably be lower than the salary he'll command in free agency. Except for maybe a few ruffled feathers for Luis, there is no reason for the Rockets to extend. Also, if Landry or Dorsey become great all-around players, then the Rockets wouldn't want to risk tying up their cap room in Scola when they would just let him go and use those two as their PFs of the future. In the end, unless it becomes clear that Scola will be very good for a very long time, and that the other PFs are not anywhere close to Scola's ability level, I just don't see the Rockets extending a 29-year-old player when they will have so much leverage when he's a 30-year-old restricted free agent.
really the rockets are in the driver seat in the summer of 2010. everyone but yao ming and shane battier are FA's. so this stretches beyond the 4 spot. you could throw ron in there if he gets an extension next summer. i'm no capologist but the rockets should be able to be under the cap enough to sign a max contract, even after resigning ron and tmac. or, offer the equivalent of 2 MLE contracts to bring in a new starting PG and PF. then exceed the cap to resign their own FA's.
