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Rockets on/off numbers with Jalen Green

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by harold bingo, Nov 16, 2021.

  1. harold bingo

    harold bingo Sengun Only Fan
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    I looked these numbers up out of my own personal curiosity and seriously debated whether or not to share them here. I know that if I do, some of the most annoying posters on here are going to use this as a chance to gloat and be negative. That isn't the reason I'm making this thread. Hopefully this can be illuminating to others, as it was for me, and maybe create some discussion or let people draw some conclusions other than "Jalen Green sucks I knew we should've taken Mobley." Anyway, here are the numbers:

    [​IMG]

    Explanation - in case it's not clear from the table, the numbers are net rating, followed by the number of minutes played. I only included players who have played at least 100 minutes this season, I included the minutes in the table because some of the sample sizes are really small, like House with Jalen. As an example, Jalen Green and Christian Wood have shared the court for 363 minutes, and during that time the team has had a net rating of -17.6 (they lose by 17.6 points per 100 possessions played). Christian Wood has played a total of 98 minutes without Jalen Green, and in those minutes, the rockets have had a +5.2 net rating (they outscore their opponents by 5.2 points per 100 possessions). The difference between the two numbers (-17.6 and +5.2) is 22.8, meaning Wood's non Jalen minutes are 22.8 net rating better than Wood's minutes with Jalen.

    Anyway, onto my thoughts on this stuff. To start, Jalen Green has been bad, I think we all know that, but I didn't expect it to be this bad. Every single player on the team (minimum 100 minutes) has a WAY BETTER net rating when Jalen Green is on the bench. There isn't a single player on the team who is better with Jalen on the court.

    A lot of these numbers have to be taken with a grain of salt, because we have been blown out so badly in a lot of these games. Since Jalen is starting, he is always playing against the starters, and he's always in the game when the other team pulls ahead, since we suck. A lot of teams take their foot off the gas, coast through the blowout, or play deep into their bench once they go up by 20 or 30. Because of this, a lot of the other players on the team will have their stats inflated. It's not like the rockets would actually have a +8.0 net rating if Jalen Green was permanently benched. So again, take these numbers with this context.

    KPJ - he's got 90 minutes without Jalen Green and the rockets are +7.1 in those minutes, that's pretty good. Even with the caveats I posted, this one surprised me a bit. I also looked into his numbers with only 1 big on the floor vs 2 bigs, and unsurprisingly he does much better with only 1 big on the floor. His net rating, his efficiency, his assists all go up and his turnovers go down. KPJ and Theis are still bad, but KPJ/Wood and KPJ/Sengun do quite well.

    Sengun - completely horrendous with Jalen on the floor, the worst player on the team with significant minutes. I'm not sure what it is about this pairing that is so bad, from my eye test it looks like Sengun is too timid while Jalen is on the floor. Maybe this is coaching or maybe he just feels like he doesn't want to dominate the ball too much while the Golden Boy is on the court. Either way, he looks great when Jalen is off the court.

    KMJ - I'm a huge fan of him as well, but most of his non Jalen minutes are in garbage time, so I don't want to read too much into them. I do think he should get al of House's minutes, but the garbage time is really inflating his net rating here. The rockets do very well in garbage time, so KMJ/Armoni/Christopher/Garuba all have great net ratings. Can't read too much into this.

    Silas - I think it's obvious that Silas is being forced to start Jalen and play major minutes. He's the #2 overall pick, he's supposed to be our franchise player, this is a season to develop him. I think this is the right decision. That being said, it is very interesting to me that this team plays winning basketball in all the non-Jalen minutes. For me personally, this makes me think better of Silas. The team, the system, or however you want to say it, is working pretty well when Jalen isn't playing. I didn't expect this, so it was kind of nice to see. I'm sure some will draw other conclusions, probably that he's not coaching Green the right way, and that's valid - this is just my opinion.

    Finally, this does make me wonder what the team would look like without Jalen Green. I'm not advocating for it, but even a tanking team needs to win some games. I want the best chance at the #1 pick, but that doesn't mean we have to go 0-82 (or 1-81). Some wins here and there are needed for morale, and even if we are going to lose, it would be nice to at least be competitive rather than getting blown out by 30. Maybe it would benefit both Jalen and the team to have him come off the bench, playing less minutes against bench players rather than starters? I don't know, maybe that's stupid, and the best way for him to develop is to continue to get beat down by starters. I really don't know, I'm not a basketball coach.

    Alright that's enough of a wall of text from me. Like I said I found this very interesting and I hope y'all do as well.


    EDIT: Some people asked for one of these for KPJ, I posted it later on in the thread, but I'm putting it here too so people can see it:

    [​IMG]

    Short thoughts - most of the team is better with him on, worse with him off. So in short, he helps the team. The only major outlier here is DJ Augustin, but they only have 8 minutes played together, so you can throw that one out. In my opinion, the reason here is not because KPJ is playing great, but because his backups are so much worse than him. Sengun thrives with him on, but is terrible with him off, but I think that's because most of his minutes without KPJ are with Jalen, which we already know is not a good pairing. I think Nwaba and KMJ are better with him off because those are their garbage time minutes, they are both garbage time players whereas KPJ is not. So Tate is the only one on here that does better without KPJ.
     
    #1 harold bingo, Nov 16, 2021
    Last edited: Nov 17, 2021
  2. kjayp

    kjayp Contributing Member

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    good info... and i appreciate how you framed it with regards to the ebb n flow of blowouts... context is a significant factor - but thats not to say Jalen has sucked also... lol
     
  3. DaDakota

    DaDakota Never Trump
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    I think it is pretty obvious to those that are unbiased and are just Rocket fans that he is struggling - this is precisely why I wanted him to start on the bench and start EGo. To let him learn and get comfortable against the 2nd string of other teams.

    In NO WAY is anyone saying Jalen Green is not going to be good, but he is NOT good right now - and that could hurt his confidence going forward. We already watched this organization screw over Eddie Griffin by not having a plan in place for a 19 year old to help him grow and mature, I don't want to see that happen again.

    Let's put Green in positions in which he can succeed and as he grows increase his time until we are ready to start him and trade EGO - sometime near the trade deadline.

    This toss him into the starting lineup and sink or swim is just not a good strategy, IMHO.

    DD
     
  4. Ramo$e

    Ramo$e Member

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    "context is a significant factor" Indeed it is. The numbers are good for a general idea but doesn't tell the whole story. A lot of times this year Jalen has been is own worse enemy. Certainly his team mates haven't helped. Sengun and KMjr are the only ones really looking for Jalen.

    When I say his own worse enemy, examples being.


    Not taking the first mid/long range jumper off the curl.

    Constantly letting the defense reset when the first step has them beat already.

    Too much pump faking and not enough shooting up and over the defender.

    For someone who knew he was going to the NBA lottery pick (top 3 for sure) He is really unprepared physically.

    Team mates not helping, examples being....

    Not passing to Green when open.

    Passing to Green when the shot clock is low. (twice in one game like 2 games ago.)

    Clogging the paint when Jalen or KPjr are isoing'

    Wood not setting sturdy picks like Sengun does to get Green free.

    Once he starts doing the little things that make him a pro and not a G leaguer to the point where no one has to remind him to keep doing these things, then and only then will those numbers look better.
     
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  5. xtruroyaltyx

    xtruroyaltyx Member

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    Would've been nice to see this chart for the other players...how everyone fairs with them on/off.
     
  6. vator

    vator Contributing Member

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    Now do one for KPJ if you have time with the same players for comparison sakes. I need more context. Also interested in Theis and Wood, but I won’t be greedy.
     
  7. HP3

    HP3 Member

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  8. AroundTheWorld

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    Brutal. Can only get better. But that will require some actual coaching.
     
  9. iNoseBleedRed

    iNoseBleedRed Member

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    He's no Jeremy Lin
     
  10. DeBeards

    DeBeards Member

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    the whole team sux, its just bc the front office dunt know how to keep the ball rolling or have zero plan in place or got a clear direction (if ya think tanking for chet could be deemed as a direction, then i refuse to comment on), whatsoever, singling out one player as a scapegoat esp. one 19yr old 1st yr prospect, is as ridiculous as say silas could do nothing now but to let players do players' thing. cut the crap!
    rebuilding is a top-bottom thing, it's like engineering, can't keep the cart before the horse, neglecting components as well as the impact like gm, talent scouts, coaching screw, planA/B etc.,
    it's time to fact check stone's summer work, and then back to silas game plan:
    Q&A for Stone:
    why keep kpj burned at pg, if that failed where was your plan B
    why signed Nwaba and Theis instead of letting olynyk & sterling & bradley gone, if stone thought Nwaba&Theis better fit in with the system and structure, what's the system and structure
    *why bench KJ n Jaygup through most of games while knowing players' development is a top priority for a rebuilding team
    Q&A for Silas
    why keep wood and theis to start as the front court while seeing their experiment over
    why keep bricking 3s w/o considering insert snipas in a timely manner
    why control sengun's minutes while seeing he is better one to gel those guys
    why bring back starters while seeing second unit works well
    *why bench KJ n Jaygup most of games while knowing players' development is a top priority
    why let dhouse ruin the vibe of this rebuilding team
    ...
    c'mon, just give jalen the ball and let him grow, build up his confidence step by step. ya aint michael jordan, so dun't push so hard to produce another 'busty bust kwame brown'.
     
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  11. tycoonchip

    tycoonchip Tilman has Aids!
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    I've been saying this for a while! People here wanting JVG to coach or even Kenny Atkinson would either bury Jalen Green on the bench until he's ready or would have traded him. Knowing Van Gundy he would have absolutely taken Mobley with the pick. He's a defense first coach.
    Anyways, I have also been preaching to let Green come off as a 6th man. He needs time on the court but he needs to earn it. He's been absolutely horrendous. If he can handle second units then we can move him to the starting unit.
    No one is trying to be a d*ck about it. Not only would it be better for his confidence but probably his overall mental health and physical health.
     
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  12. tycoonchip

    tycoonchip Tilman has Aids!
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    Theis is definitely a negative on the court. At this point his salary is a trade filler. He's absolutely terrible.
     
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  13. Mathloom

    Mathloom Consumption is a waste of time.
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    We've learned that Wood is at least as good defensively at C as Theis, so I think we're going to see a lot of improvement when Sengun takes Theis out of the lineup (and I don't know if Theis is a materially better defender than Sengun overall). It's ok Theis is a good guy and a good player on a good contract, as long as he's getting 15-20 minutes contenders will want him. Having Wood and Sengun both starting draws attention away from the backcourt, and we can still go 5-out-ish.

    I'll continue to lobby to swap Augustin and KPJ in the rotation too. We shouldn't bench KPJ after a horrible game, but when he's stagnant like right now. Let him lead the bench unit as a Harden type and playing alongside steadier, less picky hands and more experienced teammates in Theis, Gordon, KJ and Brooks. It would be really good for him, those guys give him familiarity with offense, space and excellent kick out options. Dump Augustin as soon as Porter has a streak of good games, and Green will have gotten lots of great reps learning the offense by then. Really simple, 20 games tops.

    Maybe Sengun could gradually help enough to not bench KPJ, but he still has to polish his passing game before he can go full Jokic. All in all though, I think we have to now start looking at our plan as building around Sengun and Green, and then there's everyone else with a realistic chance at making a leap into that category. Those two need some reps with 3 true role players around them (KJ + Tate + Gordon) who just do what Green/Sengun specifically need (off ball offense, team defense and QUICK passing).
     
    #13 Mathloom, Nov 17, 2021
    Last edited: Nov 17, 2021
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  14. hajkov

    hajkov Consummate Member

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    Yeah. Green has been terrible defensive wise and subpar offensively. No wonder we always lose the lead when he is on court. Numbers don't lie.
    You know, a lot of his immaturity was shown in that dunk -that wasn't even over Cade- and he kept shouting at him. And geting a T, and losing, of course.
    It is ok for a rookie to struggle. But it is not ok to maintain his behaviour of a streetballer / globe-trotter on court.

    I blame him, I blame Wood, I blame KPJ, but I blame the clueless coaching staff the most for allowing this clown show.

    Get rid of Silas, I look at the man face and I can tell he is just lost.
    Get rid of that mocking ****ing j*zz ass face Hornaceck
     
  15. Downtown Sniper

    Downtown Sniper Contributing Member

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    I would attribute a big part to Sengun being ineffective with Jalen, due to Jalen not passing him the ball and nullifying him.

    Haven't really focused too much on the last couple of games because quite frankly, alcohol is the only way to get through a KPJ and Green brick-fest.

    But seemingly every game I can remember, Jalen refused to give the ball to Sengun when he was in good position. And I know this because it stuck out like a sore thumb, in one game where Green TWICE made the correct pass the Sengun, and Sengun attributed two assists to Green.
     
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  16. hajkov

    hajkov Consummate Member

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    If I were Green, I would understand I have no NBA body and develop into a catch n shoot player.
    If I were KPJ, I would understand I am not a passer, and would drive and kick, instead of forcing passes in the paint.
    If I were Wood, I would NOT try to hero ball and bring it up court, instead I would pick n roll / pick n pop and be deadly.
     
  17. jimmyv281

    jimmyv281 Member

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    He needs Rick Adelman .
     
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  18. hakeem94

    hakeem94 Member

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    nice!
    and if you were me what would you do then ?
     
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  19. DeBeards

    DeBeards Member

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    @hajkov don't need to be a rocket scientist, that's an easy question... just reply to her: 'i would demote silas right away'
     
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  20. theDude

    theDude Contributing Member

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    I'd like to see it from someone on another team. It's probably going to look similar for a lot of players who have the offense going through them. Every time that player leaves the floor, opportunities go up for everyone else. Our problem is that Jalen isn't currently producing when he is on the floor. That's the theory I come up with while looking at this, anyway.
     

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