Rockets: Define your team/Path to championships

Need three Top 30 players.

Two top 20 players.

One Top 10 player.

Already have a Top 30 in Sengun. Need either him to ascend to Top 10 or one of the others. I trust Jabari to become a Top 20 player. But someone (Amen) has to become a Top 10 player.

 

I'll let natural selection play it's course. If the 7 can't cut it package 2 of them to pair a star with Sengun

 

There is a path like the Pistons where we just have 7 really good players and win it all.

We could already be there. It is already pretty clear none 6 young guys we've put on the floor are a bust... Sheppard TBD. It's kind of unlikely that they'll all find a way to fit together as a whole greater than the sum of the parts... but that hasn't been determined yet. But even if we don't mesh well as constructed, if we've hit on all the guys, it becomes a lot easier to consolidate and put the pieces together in a constructive way if they're big positive assets.

i think it's way more important to find out what we've got this season than to make the playoffs, which is behind my posting of various Dillon Brooks trades. Part of that is we should be pushing to make the playoffs without him if we really are this team full of young studs, If we aren't, and Brooks would play better than Amen, Tari, and Cam.... then we're not nearly as far along as we should be. Making the playoffs doesn't mean much, and we've got to hit on future picks or someone like Sengun, Jalen, or who knows need to take that big leap into superstar.

 

I think this is tough to answer because you have to fill in the slots in order. Every championship team in the past ~35 years (except Detroit, I think) has followed the same general loose formula -

1) One tier1 player (obviously more is better, but at least one). Tier 1 meaning your "superstar", your MVP candidate, your "batman", or whatever you choose to call it. I don't like to put a statline or numbers on this role, but you know it when you see it. This is a guy who is good enough to lead a team to a championship.

2) One tier2 player (again, more is better obviously, but at least one). Tier 2 is the "Robin" to your tier1 player, this guy is an allstar, maybe all nba, but his skillset must match and fit with your tier1 player.

3) Fill in the rest with complementary players to your top 2 guys, guys that fit the system.

The issue for the rockets is we don't have a tier1 player, and everything is based around that. Roleplayers that fit with Steph and the warriors are not the same guys that fit with Giannis and the bucks, nor are they the same guys that fit with Lebrons Miami heat. Different guys and different systems require different skillsets. Like the warriors, for example, needed players who can play in the motion offense and make the quick connecting pass. Kinda similar to the spurs dynasty. That's a very different playstyle and skillset compared to the roleplayers on this years Mavs, or the Lebron Cavs team (or the 2017-18 rockets), who basically just had to stand still and make 3s.

So I don't think we can answer this until a tier 1 player emerges. It could be Sengun, it could be Jalen, or it could be neither. I think the good news for us on that front is that those two fit very well together, so if either one of them becomes a tier 1 player, the other guy can be our tier 2. We could find a tier1 player that doesn't fit with Sengun, then Sengun would have to be traded. Or we could find a tier1 player that doesn't fit with Jalen, then Jalen would have to be traded. I don't know who it'll be, or if we'll find one at all, but it all starts with finding your tier1 guy and then making everything fit around him.

 

Sengun will be top 10
Sheppard and Amen and Cam can be top 20
Bari could be top 30
Tari can be top 50 - but could still be more important than some of the other guys not called Sengun, Sheppard and Amen

Jalen could be anywhere from top 20 to not even top 50

 

It's 90% about getting the stars and 10% getting the right supporting cast. As long as the Rockets don't have two stars (or one superstar), that is priority #1 by far. You can have all the best fits and best chemistry in the world, it doesn't matter if your best player is someone like FVV or Sengun (2024 version).

If one of Jalen/Sheppard/Cam/Amen/Jabari becomes an all-star level player, then you just get locked in and build out the pieces from there or trade for a Donovan Mitchell type as a 3rd guy. If they all falter and this is a .500 team three years from now, then the Rockets are going to either stay on the treadmill of mediocrity (ala the between Yao and Harden days), or blow it up and try again.

 

1) Don't extend Jalen or Sengun this year
2) Decline FVV option,
3) Trade Brooks, Tate, Landale and let Adams & Holidays go at end of year
4) Go into 2025 FA with a 100 million
5) Sign a star or buy the best/expensive bench in NBA
6) Win championships

Easy stuff fellas

 

I mean top 10.

Not necessarily in any particular order:

Jokic
Doncic
Antetokounpo
Gilgeous-Alexander
Tatum
Jaylen Brown
Anthony Edwards
Embiid
Sengun
Haliburton

No longer top 10 now (for some of them, if they ever were):

Curry
Lebron
Harden
Kawhi Leonard
Jimmy Butler
Durant
Paul George

Good players I personally don't consider top 10 - or championship-level players - for various reasons:

Ja Morant
Trae Young
Zion Williamson
Devin Booker
Towns
Banchero
Anthony Davis (without prime Lebron, in a bubble)
Sabonis
Wembanyama
Scottie Barnes

 

By not extending Sengun and Jalen Green, they'll become Restrictive Free Agents in 2025.
We'll not pick up FVV Team Option and trade away Dillon Brooks which will give us the most cap space going into the 2025-26 season!
If Rafael Stone doesn't sign the best available Free Agents next season, he can set us back another 3-5 years...next off-season is crucial for our opportunity to take our team to the next level!

 

Sengun no way is top 10 right now. Even b4 his injury, we should have been in playoffs handily not fight for 10th seed/play in under sengun.

A top 10 player like prime harden could easily carry his team into playoffs by himself, sengun isn't there yet and I'm a big sengun fan

 

The Pistons are such an outlier, I don’t think it’s worth building a team like that…though, admittedly, I LOVEEEEEE teams like that and root for them regardless (unless i hate the franchise otherwise)

It generally takes a first team or second team All NBA player…at least one. That’s the hardest part to address honestly imo. And there are a ton of guys who’ve been first or second team All NBA who never won a title. There have been MVPs that never won titles. Charles Barkley and Karl Malone are without rings. John Stockton doesn’t have a ring (proof God exists!). Winning is hard, y’all!!!

I’m not sure if we already have one of those guys on our roster, honestly. If you’re CERTAIN we do, I’d probably question your acumen unless it’s just a product of being a fan, which I totally get. I think the best chance of that is Sengun…but I’m definitely not sure of that. And he’s not a Dream or Dirk who wins a title with no other all stars…I don’t think he’s THAT kind of player. I’d love to be wrong.

I know a lot of younger Rockets fans see a title in the next 5 years. That this core will get it done. I don’t see that at all, but damn I hope you’re right. I’m 50…from time I was 6 until I was 21 the Rockets were in the Finals 4 times and won 2 titles. I would never in a million years have thought that franchise wouldn’t get back to the Finals over the course of damn near 30 years after. They were in four Finals by the time I was 21….in the 29 years since, they haven’t been once.

I’ve said it before, but my older son is a MASSIVE Rockets fan…coaches hoops for a living. I really want him to see the Rockets win one…just one. More than I need to see it for myself, because (a) he’s my son, and (b) I was in the building for both championships. But honestly, I want to see it for a ton of y’all too! Because I’m old af, most of you are much younger…and I’d love to read through these threads the night of or day after the Rockets hoist another trophy. That would be so much fun for me. So I VERY SINCERELY hope that my “somewhat” pessimism on Jalen is wrong..and that this young core is more than I see.

 

This is probably going to age like spoiled milk, but I don't think Jalen and Jabari will be on the team when we're in the conversation to compete for a championship. They will eventually be packaged for another role-player that can provide shooting help in the starting lineup. Of the core 7, I think Sengun will be the guy we build around and give the max contract to. Amen and Tari's potential will be capped at role-player and will be shopped as well in the Rockets quest for a star. Cam has a chance of supplanting Jalen as a wing in the starting lineup. Hopefully Reed will be our starting PG when FVV's contract is up here. My prediction is that Sengun, Sheppard, and Cam will be the only draft picks that stick around long term.

Stone says he thinks the team can grow organically, but his actions say otherwise. He got those Suns picks for a reason. He's not yet sold on the current talent on the roster. He's giving them a chance next year to prove themselves, but if things don't work out, he will be working the phones to try to make trades to bring in more talent. It feels like Devin Booker to the Rockets will inevitably happen at some point when the Suns stop being delusional and realize that they are not going to win a championship with what they have.

 

The goal is to find a team identity on top of pure talent. The team has to be top 5 on either offense or defense. This season's Celtics were both (1st in offense, 3rd in defense). The year before that the Nuggets were 5th in offense, 15th in defense. The year before that the Warriors were 17th in offense, 1st in defense. A championship team can be average on one side of the court as long as they are elite on the other side. However, they cannot be terrible on one side. This season we ranked 9th in defense and 20th in offense, so we have a long way to go to be elite in either category.

Ideally, we have enough internal growth to develop a superstar (Sengun is our best candidate at the moment) or to be able to trade for one that shakes loose. If things shake our way and Phoenix decides to blow up the team and rebuild, us having their picks would go a long way towards building a package for Devin Booker. We also have cap space next summer if we so choose, so maybe we'll pursue Donovan Mitchell or Brandon Ingram if they actually hit free agency. Getting stars is the hard part. Once that's in place finding the right role players to surround them is much easier.

I wouldn't count on our prospects hitting superstardom, but I wouldn't necessarily write it off either. They are all so young that they haven't had time to demonstrate their ceiling. Only Sengun and Green have three seasons of experience. Outside of chosen ones like Lebron, many stars take time to look like franchise players. Giannis, Steph, and Jokic have seven MVP awards combined. In their first three seasons they had no ROY awards, no MIP awards, and no all-star appearances. They're legends now but at the same point as our guys are now they were just promising players too.

 

This is very well said, except for your misplaced confidence in Jabari.

Two of Jabari, Tari, Amen, Cam and Sheppard must ignite while Sengun becomes a dominant force that eats defenses.

There will be winners and losers among the youngsters. At least 2 of the 5 just mentioned (along with Jalen) will not be with the Rockets long term, so the concern about not being able to "pay all these guys" is really nothing to worry about.

Turning future draft picks into a championship-level starting player is probably also necessary for a championship.

 

I'm @MadMax and I endorse this post. Just seems like a lot to ask for.

 

Sengun has star potential as a 20/10 guy that can maybe chip in 5 assists a game too, Cam has potential to be a high efficiency scorer, Amen is a defensive stopper with offensive upside, Jabari is a solid 3 and D PF, and Sheppard could be a 2 way floor spacing swiss army knife of a player that does pretty much whatever the team needs him to do.

Or they could just make less and stick around. I don't see Jabari or Tari as top tier players so they could be affordable on more modest contracts.

Keeping Sengun, Amen, Cam, and Sheppard could be difficult though

 

You trade Amen, Tate, and all of the Suns picks for Lauri Markkanen:

PG: VanVleet / Sheppard / Holiday
SG: Green / Whitmore
SF: Smith, Jr. / Brooks / Griffin
PF: Markkanen / Eason
C: Sengun / Adams / Landale

Markkanen brings size and shooting, two huge keys.