Past couple years, once the rockets start trailing, the game has been as good as over. This season i think their is some stat how we are the only team to not comeback after trailing heading to the fourth quarter. Seems like the rockets get put down or just dont know how to adjust to another teams gameplan, which could explain blowing so many leads also. Its a pretty big weakness and leads to blowout losses. We have lost 7 of our games by double digits and a lot of them, to note, by big runs or games we lead at a point. We arent going to get very far if we fold so fast. I know i posted this late so go ahead and whine about how we won today and JVG is great and so on.
Yeah that's a troubling stat that I've thought about for a while now, but I guess we just have to wait it out and see how we change with Yao back in the lineup. And on the other hand, hey all we have to do is lead going into the 4th and we have a damn good chance of winning
when we don't have a lead, teams will just focus on tmac and force the others to shoot. usually when we dont have leads, the role players struggle badly. and rarely will they play better within a game if they started bad. so our best indication will be when yao returns. when teams focus on tmac, we can go to yao and vice versa and not just shoot 3s by alston, head, battier...
Before our loss to the Mavs, our worst margin of defeat on the season was only 13 points. I'd wager that was probably a league low. It simply isn't the case that we can blown out a lot.
Many of those losses were earlier in the season. Is it not possible that they simply have become a better team and that last night was an aberration?
On the other hand, I've seen a lot more games where the Rockets start off poorly but somehow keep it close until the half, and then come out and dominate in the third quarter. In the past, they would have dug themselves a hole by the second quarter.
So what is your point? Many team fold after trailing by a large margin after 3 quarters. Give the Rockets a 20 point lead after the third quarter, and let's see if the top three teams in the league can comeback and win. I think the odds are not in your favor. I will bet you as many times as you want. Wanna bet ?
"Whine about how we won today"? What is that supposed to mean? Unless you are still "whining" about the Dallas game, the Rockets have done a very good job of playing hard every night and not giving up. Why don't you explain yourself further. Don't go back to the first 10 games of the season because obviously they don't mean anything now.
What you are saying is a serious consideration but you must take into consideration that our team has been playing without Yao Ming and without a fit Bonzi Wells and Kirk Snyder. When all are playing and if T Mc plays poorly then we will have Yao Ming to pick up the rest and force our team to be competitive in all circumstances, and vice versa when Yao has a bad game.
up to this point, we have had 13 games in which we are trailing after 3 quarters and lost at the end. they are: 2007 2 3 Houston 15 15 19 25 74 Final New 17 16 30 24 87 2007 2 9 Houston 24 15 14 21 74 Final Dallas 20 23 29 23 95 2007 1 7 Houston 21 19 22 26 11 99 Minnesota 24 20 27 17 15 103 2007 1 16 Houston 29 24 21 22 96 Final Dallas 25 22 29 33 109 2007 1 17 Houston 28 23 24 16 91 Final Phoenix 19 29 31 21 100 2006 12 6 Houston 25 15 25 19 84 Final Minnesota 20 23 26 21 90 2006 12 12 Houston 25 26 13 30 94 Final LA 21 33 30 18 102 2006 12 20 Houston 20 14 26 27 87 Final Portland 20 24 26 19 89 2006 12 23 Houston 23 25 19 26 98 Final LA 22 17 30 29 2006 12 26 Houston 24 15 19 18 76 Final Indiana 22 19 21 19 81 2006 11 5 Houston 15 27 28 20 90 Final New 26 22 23 25 96 2006 11 29 Houston 22 18 27 24 91 Final Phoenix 35 22 13 32 102 2006 11 1 Houston 26 22 24 25 97 Final Utah 35 25 25 22 107 without editing previlige, I hope the above table would appear somewhat readable. some primitive analysis shows: 1. in these 13 games, we were trailing by 8 points in average after 3 quaters we fought to a tie in the last quarter (lost by 0.3 points in average), which clearly shows that the team responded in the crunch time and improved their performance -- unfortunately, the improvement wasn't significant enough to offset the previous deficit 2. In two of those games (2007/2/2 vs. Dallas & 2006/12/12 vs. Lakers), rockets trailed by 20 and 19 points by the end of 3rd quarter, effectively in a blown out situation. if we take out these two games, rockets trailed an average of 6 points in the other 11 games; while losing 1.3 points in the last quarter. This indicates that rockets starting lineup has been performing rather consistent throughout the game, not significantly stepping up, but didn't fold under pressure either. 3. In the 13 games, two each was against pheonix and dallas, -- two of the foes that I believe simply out talent us until both Yao and Tmac is healthy together. if we take out these 4 games, rockets is trailing by an average of 8.6 points by the end of 3rd quater in the other 9 games; while winning 2.4 points in the last quater. -- This is a very much needed comforter IMO. Even though the sample size is still small, this seems to be indicating that as long as we are not out-matched, out-depthed, and run out of gas at the end, our players REALLY steps up in the last quarter. With Yao back soon, I'm pretty sure we are going to have more 4th quarter success, and the problem of "never win a game when trailing after 3 quarters" should not really be concerning. -- of course, there are simply so many ways to interpret the data with such a sample size. I'd like to see how everyone -- especially durvasa and other stats gurus -- interprets in this case. hopefully, some meaningful discussion will follow?
the suns have actually yet to lose by double digits through 50 games so far, which on sportscenter yesterday they said was a league record. but we very well could be second. and have we really only trailed at the end of 3 quarters 13 times? that seems amazingly low.
You're accusing people of whining about a win!? Dude let go. It seems to me that you're ticked off because the Rockets won rendering your post useless. You're the one doing the whining.
We have played Dallas one game at full strenght and killed them. They have beaten us two times without Yao. If they beat us again when we are at full strenght then we should be concerned.
i dont know if the poster is trying to troll or not. But he does have a point. When our game plan works and we are within 10 pts of an opponent, we look damn good and scary (see last night, even with tmac having an off day). When we get in a hole, we just seem to tailspin out of control and lose by a lot. I think its cuz when other teams are down by say 15, they go small, real offensive and try to outscore the opponent. It looks like we just try harder to keep the opponent from scoring. The team thenm gets gassed out and cant buy a shot on the offensive end.
I hate stats like this. They could either mean everything or mean nothing. I think in this case it means nothing. We are talking about 13 games where we were down heading into the 4th and happened to lose. Some of them were blowouts, some were close games we just happened to lose. I dont really think it means anything like we dont play in the 4th.
Who cares how or why we win. It is simple. You are as good as your record says you are. We have outscored our opponent 32 times, and failed to do so 18 times. Would you be happier if we won the 13 games we trailed going into the fourth quarter, but blew 13 games where we led after the third. We would be the same 32-18. 5th best team in the league and people still complain. Stop freaking out about a loss to the best team in the league at their home court. Maybe you didnt realize the Suns lost to the Hawks, the Spurs to the Magic, and the Lakers to the Raptors on that same night.
That's an interesting point and makes sense if we were truly primarily a defensive team, sort of like a Baltimore Ravens of basketball. I think though we have shown the ability to be expolsive on offense. Playing the starters longer and them getting gased might be part of it but at the same time in the early season when we collapsed from big leads might mean that we need our starters to stay in longer to protect it. One possible solution I would like to see is what Rudy T used to do is have a 4th quarter specialists who brings more energy and hustle out late in the game. We need another Sam Cassell or Scotty Brooks to come out and keep the Rox focussed late in the game.
