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Rockets 09/10 Win/Loss Profile Against Good/Mediocre/Bad Teams

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by Carl Herrera, Dec 2, 2009.

  1. Carl Herrera

    Carl Herrera Member

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    82games.com has an interesting piece of information called "win/loss profile," which breaks down how a team is doing against various types of of opponents. For example, high scoring/middle scoring/low scoring, fast pace/medium pace/slow pace, etc. Basically, the 30 teams of the league are ranked 1-30 based on the relevant features, and then broken into 3 groups of high (1st to 10th), middle (11th-20th) and low (21-30th) in accordance with the relevant category.

    One thing that I found most interesting is the W/L breakdown based on "Net Points," i.e. difference between points scored and points scored against a team. Because "net points" generally tells you how good a team is over the course of a season. A top 10 "net points" team is a top 10 best team in the leauge, etc. It's a rough division, but I think it's useful.

    So here's how the Rockets this season against the high, middle and low teams in terms of "net points" this year. Well actually, I decided to use a similar stat: the "SRS" (simple ranking system) from basketball-reference.com instead. The SRS take strength of schedule into account, as well as points differential. I am using SRS because (1) strenth of schedule tends to even out in an 82game season, but varies more in the early part of the season among teams, and (2) it's the measure that I can get my hands on most easily. In any case, the spirit of the numbers should be the same.

    Rockets 09/10 W/L Record vs:

    Good Teams (1-10): 5-6 (45%)
    Middle Teams (11-20): 1-2 (33%)
    Bad Teams (21-30): 3-0 (100%)​

    Here is the team's breakdown from 08/09

    Good Teams (1-10): 17-14 (55%)
    Middle Teams (11-20): 14-6 (70%)
    Bad Teams (21-30): 22-9 (71%)​

    Here are my thoughts and theories based on the early numbers and a review of numbers from past seasons and other team:

    1. The Rockets have had a damn difficult schedule. 11 out of their 17 games (65%) have been against "top 10 teams." In a typical season, you'd expect to have about 1/3 of your games against "top 10 teams." The Rockets, for example had 31 of 82 games last year (38%) against top 10 teams.

    2. It's especially hard to draw conclusions based on the Rockets 1-2 record against "Middle Teams" and their 3-0 record against "Bad Teams" because of the very low number of games in each category. The 5-6 Record agaisnt "Good Teams," however, is a little more meaningful. It's about 30% of a season's worth of games you'd expect to play agaisnt the "Good Teams." (Of course, the identity of "good teams" can change later in the season, but it's still useful info for now.).

    3. So, what can we conclude from this 5-6 Record? My conclusion is that the early numbers indicate the Rockets are playing like a 50-win team. Here's how I arrived at this thought:

    A 5-6 Record gives you about a 45% win rate against Good Teams. Looking at prior data, such a win rate against Good Teams have tended to give a team 50+ wins overall. I.e. a team that can win 45% of its "Good Team" games will win significantly more of their "Middle Team" or "Bad Team" games-- a high enough %, typically, to result in 50+ wins overall.

    For example:

    Here are the win% against "Good Teams" by the teams that won 50 games, or at least close to it in 08/09:

    BOS: 50%
    HOU: 55%
    ATL: 31%
    ORL: 62%
    CLE: 67%
    LAL: 74%
    SA: 41%
    DAL: 36%
    DEN: 48%
    NOR: 39%
    UTA: 36%
    POR: 43%​
    Besides Lakers (67 wins), ORL (59 wins), and CLE (66 wins), a 45% win rate vs. Good Teams is pretty much as good as that of any of the 50-win (and close to 50 win) teams from last season. Even the 62 win Celtics only won 50% of their games vs. Good Teams (though they are probably the exception).

    I didn't go though all of the rest of the league yet, but those non-50 win teams I've seen have not topped 40% in terms of win% vs. Good Teams.

    I also took a look at the Rockets win % against "Good Teams" since 02/03 (the first year for which 82game.com has data), here's how it came out:

    08/09: 55% 53 wins
    07/08: 43% 55 wins
    06/07: 44% 52 wins
    05/06: 18% 34 wins
    04/05: 55% 51 wins
    03/04: 30% 45 wins
    02/03: 32% 43wins​

    Sure seems llike the Rockets have tended to win 50+ games whenever they manage a 40+% win rate against the top 10 teams. When the Rockets have won less than 50 games, they tend to win against the top team at a much lower rate.

    Of course, I have not looked at the data on every team in every season, but I don't think it's a fluke based on a good number data points that I have example.
     
    #1 Carl Herrera, Dec 2, 2009
    Last edited: Dec 2, 2009
    11 people like this.
  2. DaDakota

    DaDakota If you want to know, just ask!
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    FRICKEN AWESOME POST !!!

    Repping you up, and 5 stars for the thread.

    Awesome breakdown...

    DD
     
  3. thcdrummer007

    thcdrummer007 Member

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    So your saying there is a chance?? Nice post. Very insightful and gives us rocket fans some hope.
     
  4. number22

    number22 Member

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    yeah great post. i still thinks it's lil too early to tell if they'll win 50 games. i think they'll make the playoffs. but that is really interesting. Hopefully that trend continues for them this year.
     
  5. Carl Herrera

    Carl Herrera Member

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    Yeah, I agree it's a bit too early too tell. For instance, OKC is ranked 7th in terms of SRS right now-- and they've been playing very well to deserve it, too. But they might drop out. PHX is currently ranked 11th (largely due to unimpressive strength of schedule, I think), but they might move up. Switching OKC (against whom Rockets are 2-0) with PHX (against whom Rockets are 0-1) and the Rockets are 3-7 (30%) instead of 5-6 (45%) vs. "Good Teams."

    In any case, I think we can still agree that the Rockets have had some nice wins against teams that are playing pretty good basketball, which is promising.
     
  6. jevon3012

    jevon3012 Member

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    Good post and I had a feeling we had a ridiculously tough starting schedule but this provides it with solid facts.
     
  7. topfive

    topfive CF OG

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    Kudos (and rep points) for the post. You're trying to get DM's attention, aren't you? :grin:
     
  8. LCII

    LCII Member

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    You must spread some Reputation around before giving it to Carl Herrera again.
     
  9. rpr52121

    rpr52121 Sober Fan
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    Thanks for all the work and effort you put into this.

    However, I have ask many of you what exactly you hope to get out of this season. How exactly does a playoff berth this year help the team out in the future?
     
  10. Carl Herrera

    Carl Herrera Member

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    Increase level of team play/confidence/cohesiveness so the team is more ready next year (hopefully to have a good shot at the championship with return of Yao and addition of other talent).
    Increases the trade value of players on the roster.
    Increases fan interest, team income, and financial resources of the team so they can spend more on players.

    There are plenty of benefits.
     
  11. Patience

    Patience Member

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    And I might add

    -allows us to watch a fun season of basketball
    -makes for a team to be proud of
    -improves the level of conversation on Clutchfans.net
     
  12. Seth

    Seth Member

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    Great post, but you are Wrong and Late...

    I already stated that we are going to win 55 not 50... So stop underrating the team. =P

    (Only if T-Mac doesn't come back or comes back and plays at this teams tempo/effort/defense and stops b****ing) -i know those are a lot big IF, but Adelman and Morey can make it happen-.
     
  13. Seth

    Seth Member

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    Better look to the owner, so that he sees that we don't neecesary need players like Yao or TMac, resigns this team and complements it with good players that fit both mentally and basketball wise.
     
  14. pmac

    pmac Member

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    I'm not sure if we should be getting our hopes up in the early going here. I think we should wait and see how we compare to the rest of the league midseason, particularly the 2nd quarter of the season. There was likely very little scouting on this team's new style of play during this 1st quarter of the season.
     
  15. tituspan

    tituspan Member

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    The thing is playoffs is different from regular season. The stat is surely good for projecting regular season results, but once you get into playoffs, it's completely different as history tells us
     
  16. Seth

    Seth Member

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    I don't know what you meant
    This team has had the most PO success of the last 9 years.
     
  17. WoodlandsBoy

    WoodlandsBoy Member

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    This kind data is why the aren't playn tmac cause they don't need him to make a playoff run and they save $300k per game.
     
  18. Freik

    Freik Member

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    Later in the season when a teams record changes do the original numbers change, or is it based on the teams record at the time of that game?

    Say you play New Orleans when they are a low team and beat them, later in the season after a winning streak they are a middle team, and you beat them again, are the numbers based then on 2 middle team wins or one low team win and one middle team win?
     

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