Revisiting the 15 FGA stats, and some other Mobley tidbits

So.. basically...when Cat and/or Yao are hot and playing the right way(getting teammates invloved)...we have one of the best winning percentages in the league?

Sweet.

I love games like tonights...SF worries about getting the offense running and scores within the flow...and Cat and Yao try to take care of most of the scoring.( a real shame Yao didnt get a few more shots to fall tonight, it would have been a blowout)

 

It was a blowout with about 6 minutes to play. Unfortunately the game goes for 48 minutes not 42, then Baron happened and suddenyl the Rocks were only up 7 with under a minute left. Good to see, though, that they were able to pull this one out and didn't cave in.

 

mobley might have had a good game but i dont think he is gonna make this team any better in the long run. But, hell yea Rockets won 4 in a row

 

You forgot to add that the rox are like 11-1 or something like that when Francis shoots 50%...why do people on here on put negative facts?

 

lets not make this another bashing thread please...

I'm glad Mobley is feeling better after the lower back pains he was going through

 

Translation: We need our shooting guard to be CONSISTANT and score points IN ADDITION to Yao. The consistant outside shooting opens things up for Yao and the low post game opens things up for the outside shooters. Complimentary players here.

Answer, look at my signature. Steve Francis for Ray Allen.

 

An excellant point and very interesting stat. Basically it again says that when our PG or SG can hit the outside jumper with a high percentage combined with Yao's solid game then we win. The problem is that Francis just isn't CONSISTANT enough shooting that percentage. That is unfortunate!

 

I think we were something like 7-2 when Chuck Nevitt had more than 1 FG.

 

It bothers me when people try to draw conclusions from these type of stats.

If Yao gets 15 FGA, then the other team is likely playing him 1-on-1 which is a bad plan. The opponent's game plan is more likely the cause or contributor of the Rockets victory than the number of Yao's shots.

If Mobley takes 15 shots in a game, he is likely having a good night shooting and his teammates are feeding him. By the same token, if he takes less than 10 shots, he's probably having an off night. Cat's own hot shooting is more likely the cause or contributor to the Rocket's victory than the number of Cat's shots.

These are symptom statistics and not causal, IMO, and can be used to support almost any argument.

For example, last year Golden State and Cleveland were the top two rebounding teams in the league, so obviously rebounding is a bad thing that leads to loses.

 

I agree 100 percent. That's what I was thinking exactly!

 

No, your argument then can be applied to any player on the team. So in any given game, if someone shoots more than 15 shots, he's hot, his teammates feed him, and so we usually win? If so, every team wins most of the time, which is clearly not true.

The stats also say that when Francis shoots more than 15 shots, we are .500. In other words, some players' shooting apparently has more impact than others in terms of winning games.

I agree that these numbers (any stat numbers) don't tell you the whole picture. But I am tired of people always saying that numbers don't mean anything. Numbers do mean something. You just have to be careful how they are interpreted.

 

No, I think that guy made pretty good point, also, JVG is likely to sit Mobley if he is having a bad night, as he has more options than with Steve. He can play Jackson at two Piatowski, or Steve.

 

So you're saying the Rockets win in spite of Mobley jacking up shots.

Here we go manipulating stats to make a point. "In over half of them, Cat shot under his season average, sometimes as low as 25%" You had previously mentioned that they were 14-6 in those 20 games. Did they actually win the game where he shot 25%? No, he went 4 of 16 in a loss to the Suns, but it sounded good to make your point. That's akin to me saying "In 2/3rds of the games, Mobley averaged ~47%, sometimes as high as 61%."

Let's look at the numbers again. I count 21 games (14-7), where he's average 42.8% which is slightly higher than his 41.8% season average. But in the wins, he's averaged 46.9% vs. 32.8% in the losses.

Taking those stats into account, it's perfectly reasonable to suggest that his teammates were feeding him, at least in 2/3rds of those games, because of his hot shooting (~47%).

It's also perfectly reasonable to suggest that Cat's own hot shooting is more likely the cause or contributor to the Rocket's victory than the number of Cat's shots.

My point is that you can manipulate stats into making a case for any argument, which is what I illustrated with rebounding.

Political parties are really good at this.

You're absolutely right, which helps to illustrate my point - that stats can be used to support any argument.

 

Go Rockets

 

Rivaldo: But that speaks as to him merely having a good game, not level of involvement.

Surely, you can see that you're only partly right?

Should such stats be interpreted as "well, if we give Yao 15 shots, then we'll win 83% of the time?" Of course not.

But they are significant. Otherwise, there would be such a correllation with virtually any player. But that's simply not true (Francis, for instance).

At the absolute minimum it means that certain players' performances are particularly outcome determinative.

Don't overstate the statistics... but don't underplay them either.

 

And if you have to manipulate the stats, shouldn't that tell you something about your argument. All any of these stats prove is when the Rockets shoot well, they win. Anything else is an anomoly.

 

I don’t think you understand the point of Stupidmoniker’s stats. These stats are very interesting. They show that you are going to win games when your high percentage shooters are shooting the ball. Unfortunately, the NBA is sometimes like a popularity contest, where your popular player will jack up shot after shot even though he may have a low shooting percentage. You are not going to win many games when that happens; hence the 16-16 (.500) when Steve shoots the ball.

Your comment that the Rockets are 11-1 when Francis shoots 50%, does not really mean much. A coach can make sure a player gets more shots if he thinks that they will win if he shoots more. On the other hand, a coach can’t say “Steve, we win more games when you shoot above 50%, so please do that tonight”.

Stupidmoniker’s stat which shows that the Rockets are 15-3 when Yao has 15 or more FGA is also interesting. This reminds me of the struggle that Phil Jackson has. The Lakers have arguably two of the top five players of the game. Shaq is considered the most dominent player in the game, and Kobe is arguably a top 5 candidate. Phil Jackson is constantly trying to convince Kobe to pass to Shaq more. Why doesn’t Phil want to distribute the ball evenly between the two? The reason being that when Shaq has a high FGA the Lakers win.

Yoa has 12.1 FGA a game with a .536% and Steve has 14.5 FGA a game with a .400%. If I was JVG, I would have Yao taking 22 shots a game, and Steve 10. I also would have Yao taking the last shot of the quarter more often.

 

But it isn't as simple as just giving the ball to the high-percentage shooter. Oftentimes, when Yao shoots less than 15 times, it isn't because the Rockets' offensive plans don't call for it but because the defense has taken that option away. It should be obvious that the outcome of the game relies much more heavily on what the defense does than how many FGA Player X has. If our opponent puts 5 defenders on Yao, you'll likely have greater success if some other player is taking the plurality of the shots. That's an extreme example of the common-symptom issue TB-Cain referred to. But, I've seen enough games where defenses committed enough to defending Yao that it would be profitable to go to another scorer. If anything, the 15-3 stat should indicate to opposing coaches that they better commit enough defense to Yao to force the Rockets to go to their second option. It does not indicate that the Rockets should try to bulldoze Yao through whatever defense the opponent throws at him.