This is subjective, but I think I did a decent job of weighing things like home/road records, so a game @Mil would be considered a toss-up. "Favored" games remaining is more like heavily favored, and "Toss Up" games remaining are to me games that wouldn't be surprising if they went either way. If All the Teams play to basically their level of play thus far, the following standings will be their projections. Of course, the future never plays out exactly as one would assume, so there is margin of error. And then you could add in unexpected things like injuries or crazy team chemistry and a team could totally over/under perform the stretch run in relation to their own season's standards thus far. So this for sure isn't science, but I'm just giving a clearer picture of what is ahead. And considering all the things I have thought of, I think Rockets are going to be the 5th seed. Mathematically they can be anywhere from 2nd to 9th, but realistically, they're in the 4th to 6th range. And this means they have to play better than they have so far this year in order to get higher than 5th, or the other teams have to play worse. According to my subjective standards, the Rockets have the toughest remaining schedule in terms of the number of games that can go either way, but they've also fared the best in those games when compared to the other playoff teams. I'm excluding the Lakers and the Spurs and I'm assuming that they'll be 1, 2. It's not inconceivable that the Spurs will drop, but they have a decent 3 game cushion, and they just don't have that M.O. of collapsing down the stretch. I think Denver has the 3 seed locked up pretty easily. At worst they are 4th, barring a Billups injury. They have the easiest schedule remaining and take care of business against the lower rungs as well as any of the Western playoff contenders. Utah is the wild card for me. I can't get a great read on them. They've been injured all year, but are finally healthy. Most of their "Toss Up" games left are on the road, in which they've sucked at not only during this injury year, but also historically...but they wouldn't surprise me one bit if they went on a nice run. Phoenix is another wonder. They have enough talent to win with their return to running, but they're just too many games back to realistically make the playoffs....well, they could be 8th. That's because Dallas is the worst in "Toss Up" games and they have many of those remaining. Remaining Schedules Denver Nuggets 37-20 Projected Wins Range: 50 to 54 wins Record for Toss Up Games Thus Far: 12-16 Record for Favored Games Thus Far: 25-4 Remaining Toss Up Games: 12 LAL, @Ind, @Det, Por, @Uta, Hou, @Pho, @NOH, @Dal, Uta, @LAL, @Por Remaining Favored Games: 13 Atl, @Sac, OKC, LAC, NJ, @Mem, Was, GS, NYK, LAC, @Min, OKC, Sac Portland Trailblazers 35-20 Projected Wins Range: 49 to 53 wins Record for Toss Up Games Thus Far: 14-17 Record for Favored Games Thus Far: 21-3 Remaining Toss Up Games: 16 @Hou, @San, San, @Den, LAL, Dal, @Atl, @Ind, @Cle, @Mil, Pho, Uta, @Hou, @San, LAL, Den Remaining Favored Games: 11 @Min, Ind, Min, NJ, @Mem, Phi, Mem, @OKC, @Mem, @LAC, OKC Houston Rockets 35-21 Projected Wins Range: 48 to 52 wins Record for Toss Up Games Thus Far: 14-12 Record for Favored Games Thus Far: 21-9 Remaining Toss Up Games: 19 Por, Cle, @Chi, @Uta, Pho, @Den, LAL, San, @NOH, Det, @San, @Uta, @Pho, @LAL, Por, Orl, @GS, NOH, @Dal Remaining Favored Games: 7 @Min, Tor, Mem, @Cha, Min, LAC, @Sac New Orleans Hornets 33-22 Projected Wins Range: 46 to 50 Record for Toss Up Games Thus Far: 14-15 Record for Favored Games Thus Far: 19-7 Remaining Toss Up Games: 17 Det, @Phi, Dal, @Atl, @Mil, @Chi, Hou, Den, San, @GS, Uta, @Mia, Pho, @Dal, Dal, @Hou, @San Remaining Favored Games: 10 Mil, @NJ, OKC, @Was, Min, Mem, GS, @NYK, @Sac, @LAC Utah Jazz 34-23 Projected Wins Range: 46 to 50 wins Record for Toss Up Games Thus Far: 13-16 Record for Favored Games Thus Far: 21-7 Remaining Toss Up Games: 16 @GS, Hou, Den, @Ind, @Atl, @Mia, @Orl, Hou, @Pho, Pho, @Por, @Den, @NOH, @Dal, @San, @LAL Remaining Favored Games: 9 @Min, Sac, @Tor, Was, @OKC, NYK, Min, GS, LAC Dallas Mavericks 33-22 Projected Wins Range: 45 to 49 wins Record for Toss Up Games Thus Far: 10-18 Record for Favored Games Thus Far: 23-4 Remaining Toss Up Games: 17 @San, San, @NOH, @Pho, @Por, @GS, @LAL, Det, @Atl, @Ind, Den, @Cle, Pho, Uta, NOH, @NOH, Hou Remaining Favored Games: 10 Mil, OKC, Tor, @OKC, Was, GS, @Min, Mia, @Mem, Min Phoenix Suns 31-24 Projected Wins Range: 44-48 wins Record for Toss Up Games Thus Far: 12-17 Record for Favored Games Thus Far: 19-7 Remaining Toss Up Games: 16 @LAL, LAL, @Orl, @Mia, @Hou, @San, Dal, Cle, @GS, Den, Uta, @Por, @Uta, Hou, @Dal, @NOH Remaining Favored Games: 11 Cha, Tor, OKC, Phi, Was, @Sac, Sac, @Mem, @Min, Mem, GS
You are mistaken to leave out the spurs. We have 2 games against them. If we win those 2 games we are only 1 game behind game. 1 game is nothing. Plus just look at your own stats, as pathetic as we have played at times this season we are the only team on your list above 500 in toss up games. So the games you consider toss up for us may not be so toss up. I expect us to win at least 60% of the so called toss up games.This Rockets team hasn't looked this good in a while. I would say the last few games have showed the Rockets are a teamed to reckoned with. They will take care of business tonight and I expect them to play their hearts on thursday. If that results in a win than watch out spurs. Good post by the way. It's nice to see where we stand with others. Still I think barring injury this team is on the rise and the 2 toss up games this week will show that.
I think Denver has the 3 seed locked up pretty EASILY. I don't think so. The 3rd seed is up for grasps. Denver just doesn't seem that solid to me. I expect them to choke the rest of the way.
I have to say, this is a most impressive post. I bet you the final results will be very similar to what you have stated (i.e. each team will fall within your range). Thanks for the great post!
Good work. We're usually a better in the second half of the season. As long as we have home court adv, it doesn't really matter who we play, its not going to be easy.
In regards to the Spurs, I've already stated that I wouldn't be shocked if they dropped to 4 or lower, but I wouldn't put money on it. I know the Rockets have been 14-12 in toss-up games thus far, but that's not 60%. I know they look good, and I sure do hope they go on a run. I believe in them, but I'm just writing that the task is daunting. They have done the best vs. good teams (and bad teams that play well at home) when compared to the other Western teams (excluding San Antonio and LA Lakers), but the Rockets need to play even better to move up. The odds are that they'll be 5th, or 4th, or 6th, or even 7th. I'd be ecstatic with 3rd and very surprised with a 2 seed. As for Denver, the only way I see them really slipping is through injury or some sort of implosion. They might appear shaky but their performances have been pretty consistent. Mainly, they have an easy ass schedule and they win games they're supposed to win. That's an area where the Rockets have struggled greatly this year.
Great post, Kim. Our winning percentage for Toss Up Games has been 54% (14-12), while the percentage for Favored Games has been 70% (21-9). In order to maintain the same percentage for the remaining games, we need to win 10 of the 19 Toss Up Games and 5 of the 7 Favored Games. That would mean going 15-11 the rest of the way. The result would be a 50-32 record. Not bad.
I agree. But that would probably be a 5th seed. It could be higher or lower....it just looks like in order to get home court, the Rockets need to play better and more consistent than they have up til now. And/or the other teams need to do the opposite.
I think with the continuity of the team we have now and tougher games, we will not have too many more mental lapses and be able to compete with the best of them. Most of those season stats are misleading cause of Mcgrady and Artest in and out of the lineup. Right now what your seeing is what your getting with better results. Which can only lead you to believe we will have a better run here to end the season then anything we have had this season!
I don't see the Nuggets falling that far and the Jazz climbing that high. It's not inconceivable, but the Nuggets have a cream puff schedule remaining and they're going to win 50 at least. The Jazz are healthy, so they can go on a run, but look at their 16 toss ups, 12 of which are on the road. They can easily go 6 and 10 on those toss ups, which means even if they go 9-0 on their favored (.750 winning clip this season on heavily favored), they're still only at 49 wins. It's possible, but the odds of the Jazz going to #3 are even less than the Rockets.
I am a D Will fan. I watch the Jazz all the time. They didnt played well in the 1st 3 months becoz of injuries. Now, they are finally healthy. D Will is healthy again. AK47 and Boozer are back. Their draft picks a few seasons ago - Millsap, Miles & Brewer, have greatly improved. They are now having the strongest finish in the WC. If Boozer can get back to form in this month, the WCF will be Lakers vs Jazz, 7 game series. The Jazz is a better team now than the one that went to the WCF a couple of seasons ago.
Trying to be a realist, I see us going 15-11 the rest of the way. I think 17-9 is the best we could be optimistic for. 17 games (8 on the road) against possible playoff teams is a tough path, even if we do play better down the stretch. I'll assume we lost the road games against playoff teams and hold serve on homecourt, with the Lakers and Cavs being the exceptions. Yes, we'll probably win a couple of those games, but it would likely even out with an unexpected loss to a non-playoff team. That makes us a 50-32 team. The biggest teams for us to watch are Spurs, Portland, and the Hornets. Spurs very well might tumble, missing Ginobili and facing a tough schedule: 17 games against potential playoff teams (only 6 on the road), 4 against Boston/Cleveland/LAL. Portland: 17 potential playoff teams, 8 on the road, 3 against Lakers/Cavs Hornets: 16 potential playoff teams, 7 on the road, 0 games against the Lakers/Celtics/Cavs Our games against all of three of these teams will be critical, especially since the Hornets could leapfrog us with a relatively easy schedule (9 games are Eastern conference and another 4 are sad sacks like OKC, Mem, Sac, and Minny. Evan
ooh ooh, can we bet that the Rockets will finishes higher than 7th? (betting, where poor raccoons happens) On a serious note, I think you're not giving this team enough credit. We got this far with 3 months of grief. Can't you imagine what the next 2 months are going to be like without grief? Like somebody said, we are finally a team, and I LIKE IT! (I'm actually predicting #2 seed)
LOL! I love to give the Rockets more credit. But Lakers and Spurs will be top 2 teams in WC. Nobody will doubt that. Then Hornets and Jazz, one has CP3 and the other has D-Will and they are healthy with full rosters, so what do you want me to do?
Gosh, we will play again against Utah on the 1st round (4th against 5th). And I would prefer Hornets, Blazers, Nuggets, Mavs, Suns, even Spurs before them. They are better team than Denver and Portland in his division, but they have now 3 more losses because of injuries, so I don't believe they can come back and win their division. As I don't believe we can reach the Spurs either.
This is pretty much the exact way I see it playing out also. The team is playing well and I expect for them to beat the teams they are supposed to beat (now that the roster is actually set) but there are just too many tough teams coming up for them to realistically win more than 14-17 games.
