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Record when TMac/Yao score 'x' points and the impact of Wesley and James

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by lived, May 14, 2005.

  1. lived

    lived Member

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    I got curious as to how solid the 1-2 punch of TMac and Yao so I gathered some numbers from this season.

    Without TMac (includes the Cavs game when he got out after 3mins), Rox are 3-2.
    Without Yao, Rox are 1-1.

    When both score a total of:
    60+ pts, Rox are 5 - 2 (0.71)
    50 - 59 pts, 10 - 3 (0.77)
    40 - 49 pts , 19 - 9 (0.64)
    30 - 39 pts, 11 - 8 (0.58)
    29 or less pts, 3 - 4 (0.43)

    so it would seem that the Rockets have the best success when TMac and Yao combine for 50 or more points in a game.

    That said, the breakdown of the Dallas series is:
    60+ pts, 1 - 1
    50 - 59 pts, 0 - 2
    40 - 49 pts, 2 - 1

    so the 3 losses when they combined for 50+ points is certainly unexpected.

    Now quite a few posts have been arguing for/against Wesley and James, their value to the team and whether they really help the team etc..

    Prior to the trades, Rox were 14-15
    Post-Wesley, Rox are 37 - 16 (0.700), 33 - 15 (0.690) when both TMac & Yao play;
    Post-James, Rox are 19 - 8 (0.700), 17 - 7 (0.890) when both TMac & Yao play

    With Wesley and James, the record- combined scoring outputs were:
    60+ pts: 1 - 1 (0.500)
    50 - 59 pts: 5 - 0 (1.000)
    40 - 49 pts: 7 - 2 (0.778)
    30 - 39 pts: 4 - 4 (0.500)

    It appears that the Rox were more successful with Wesley and James when TMac and Yao combined for lesser points, i.e. reasonable expectation to win when both combine for 40+ pts. We know TMac will get his 20+, so I'd really like to see Yao start consistently getting his 20+pts next season.


    Therefore, %-wise, the team improved when Wesley was added, and improved even further when James came aboard. So I'm still not understanding why there have been suggestions of trades one-way or the other, or a scenario where we should move either of the 2. This team's been together for only so-many games, if we're being optimistic of the future, why not give the existing squad a second chance next season and bring them all back (as far as possible). I'm certainly looking forward to how much noise this team can make and shake up the Western conference standings right from the start of the season. Hopefully, JH will be able to play at the same level he was at before he got injured. Sure we're old, but let's drop Ward, Moochie, Braggs or even Baker. That'll make some roster space for a draft or a younger player for the forward spot without the need to shake up our current backcourt rotation that has been performing very well (albeit the few costly games).
     
  2. Deuce

    Deuce Context & Nuance

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    i.e. We need Tmac and Yao to score 20+ points a night (which is clearly in Tmac's season average and perhaps ups Yao's game slightly) and we need a consistant "3rd scorer", perhaps someone to get 15 points per night.
     
  3. smoothie

    smoothie Jabari Jungle

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    this shows that we obvously win when tmac and yao have a good game.


    it also shows that when our role players step up, we are unstopable (50+ points = 5-0).

    we need a good 3rd scorer, and more consistant shooters (wesley)
     
  4. jopatmc

    jopatmc Member

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    That's all good, but we already know that we have a good chance of winning when TMac and Yao both score over 20.

    I'd like to see our record in relation to Yao's shot attempts each game.

    And I'd like to see our record in relation to Yao's minutes played per game. (This would show how important it is to have him on the floor as opposed to on the bench in foul trouble.)
     
  5. KaiSeR SoZe

    KaiSeR SoZe Member

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    more consistant role players = more victories

    we know Yao and T-Mac will get their points but we need our roleplayers to hit all the OPEN shots they get

    we haven't been doing that consistantly
     
  6. New Jack

    New Jack Member

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    Clearly, when our guards produce and hit shots, we win. When they don't, we lose. That's why what the Rockets decide to do with their backcourt will be the single most important thing they do this summer. More important than who they find to backup Howard. The way this team is built and the way the NBA game is evolving, the play of the guards is the most important factor to a team's success.

    We were able to win 51 games with a backcourt that would be the 7th, 8th, or 9th man on most teams. Imagine how successful we'd be if we had guards with starting caliber talent.
     
  7. MartianMan

    MartianMan Member

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    Where do you find out all these stats? :confused:

    Can you find out the stats for when Yao+T-mac score 40+ and the bench score 30+? I bet we're undefeated.
     
  8. tigermission1

    tigermission1 Member

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    Wasn't Jim Jackson that 3rd scorer?:( :eek:

    Look, I really appreciate what DW did for us, but if we had JJ instead of DD in the playoffs, we would be getting our asses kicked by Pheonix now instead of the Mavs. JJ was a much more consistent/dependable scorer than DW has been for us this season. DW's atrocious offense in the playoffs/late in the season didn't help the Rockets' cause very much. JJ was cheaper too.

    So we gave up 6'9" Nachbar and JJ (who is a tall guy at least and is not a 6'1" midget trying to guard Stackhouse) for a 6'1" shooting guard.

    I was never a big fan of that trade, and while I did get over it I still think it was a bad move by the Rockets long-term.

    I am happy for JJ though, he played well for us and was a professional and what do you know, he is traded to the worst team in the league, only to end up with the best team in the league. So at least he is on a better team with a real chance at the ring right now.
     
    #8 tigermission1, May 14, 2005
    Last edited: May 14, 2005
  9. tigermission1

    tigermission1 Member

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    The problem is that throughout the season, Wesley was our 3rd offensive option pretty much. And as we all know, he is an EXTREMELY streaky shooter. Unfortunately for us, his cold shooting was a reality towards the end of the season, and he came into the playoffs not shooting too well.
     
  10. jlivz

    jlivz Member

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    Record per Yao's shot attempts in 80 games played:

    1-10 attempts: 15-9 for.625%

    11-15 attempts: 21-13 for .618%

    16+ attempts: 14-8 for .636%

    Yao's ppg in our 50 wins: 18.44

    Yao's ppg in our 30 losses: 18.1

    In games where Yao gets 30+ minutes the team is 28-20 for .583%

    In games where Yao gets 29- minutes the team is 22-10 for .688%

    Compiled through ESPN.com's game log. Stats seem pretty consistent throughout, though the record when Yao gets less than 30 surprises me.
     
  11. ClutchCityReturns

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    One explaination for why we had a better record when Yao played less would be that Yao got rested when the game was in hand in some of those wins. If the game was hard-fought, we had to play him big minutes.
     
  12. jopatmc

    jopatmc Member

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    If you take Yao's minutes down to 25-, what is the record? There has to be an inflection point there somewhere where our record goes down significantly.

    I really see Yao as being the key to this team. The biggest factor in our winning to me is Yao being on the floor and taking shots. That's why I believe that Van Gundy needs to adjust his game strategy slightly and Yao needs to watch a lot of film this summer as well as work on staying away from the reach fouls. Really, Yao should spend a whole lot of this summer playing one on one with James. The game being, that James cannot shoot from the outside but Yao has to pick him up at the free throw line. That's where he gets into trouble is when he is out of position and trying to guard a small player at the bucket.

    In my opinion, we should start the game by getting Yao off in the middle, not getting Wesley off from the perimeter. We have to start the game by getting the ball into Yao and Yao has to get off shots, at least 6 shots in the first quarter. Then on defense, Yao has to let everything go in the first quarter. No fouls, period. It doesn't matter how many layups and dunks the opponents get. Let them have them. We need to work on the other players playing better defense but the bottom line is we have to get Yao into the 2nd quarter without any fouls and into halftime with a maximum of one foul and into the 4th quarter with a maximum of 3 fouls, no more. That way in the 4th quarter, he can let it all hang out and he should have put up at least 15 shots in the first 3 quarters.
     
    #12 jopatmc, May 14, 2005
    Last edited: May 14, 2005
  13. lived

    lived Member

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    So it does seem that the optimal game plan would be for Yao to get into the game early - a strategy well-employed in the later portion of the season. He should be the one setting the tone of the game, anchoring down the scoring from around the basket. I've always felt TMac should hang around early on before stepping up when Yao is out of the game or when things start to go whack. If the team plays that way, and if TMac gets about 28-30ppg, and Yao 20-22pts, then we'd be falling into the best win% column in terms of stats. Of course, this arguement fails to take into consideration the contributions of the bench. In terms of a 3rd scorer, I look at the combined efforts of James and hopefully JH when he gets back as picking up any slack. Needless to say, Sura and Wesley were able to get a few games when they filled that role well, althought the point was made that their FG% were lower than ideal, they certainly need to be giving a more consistent %. I'd not look too much into the minutes that Yao plays, I think its more important that he plays efficient minutes, given that big men do tend to get tired more quickly with all the banging inside. This again emphasises the need for Yao to be established early in the game, get some quick easy baskets before the opposition get into the game. Some people say Yao doesn't get his shots because he's not aggresive enough and he can't make his own shot, but on the flip side, I'd like to see the guards getting the the ball in better time and spots where he's comfortable to just catch-and-shoot. Of course, the ever-so reliable pick and roll should just be run over and over again since it had been very successful to say the least.
     
  14. lived

    lived Member

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    I think at that point in time, both players were deemed to be fairly similar in point production, but DW gave an extra defensive element. I wasn't a big fan of that trade initially, but I guess management just did what they thought would help in the long term. We can't fault DW too much really, players do fall into a slump sometimes, it just sucks more that it happened to him during the playoffs. But I'm guessing that if JJ had been with us throughout, I'm not sure we'd be in the same position, who knows.. we could've dropped to the 7th or 8th seed.
     
  15. Deuce

    Deuce Context & Nuance

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    First let me say I enjoyed JJs time on our team and was a fan. And stuck up for him quite a bit here. But I dont think we win 51 games with JJ and not Wesley. Remember, the trade was made so Tmac could play the 3 and Wesley the 2. JJ cant play the 2 well enough defensively to chase around quicker 2s and that was our BIG problem. It weared down Tmac. We see what happens when Tmac has to play that kind of defense for a long time (Dallas series), it effects his offensive game (especially in the 4th). I think we can safely say that Tmac is now a fully time 3 guy on our team.

    JJ TRIED to be our 3rd scoring guy. And sometimes he was successful, but in reality it was asking TOO much of him and thus caused him a times to make bad plays, turnovers or take bad shots. I dont fault him, because he was being asked to do to much considering his skillset at this time in his career.

    We need a TRUE 3rd option. Someone that is younger, someone that can drop in 15-20 points on any given night. Right now our 3rd option is really Mike James. And he is about on JJ's level in terms of being a 3rd option. A guy that is being asked to be that player but isnt quite equipped to do it.
     
  16. StupidMoniker

    StupidMoniker I lost a bet

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  17. ClutchCityReturns

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  18. cwww

    cwww Member

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    How can 17-7 be .890 instead of .708?
    :confused:
     

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