Recent Polls... different results all around

Obviously the Arizona poll is the only accurate one.

 

http://www.usatoday.com/news/politicselections/nation/polls/2004-09-08-battleground-poll_x.htm

Bush gains in 2 key states

By Susan Page, USA TODAY

WASHINGTON — President Bush holds clear leads over Sen. John Kerry in the battlegrounds of Missouri and Ohio — states the president probably needs to hold to win re-election — according to USA TODAY/CNN/Gallup Polls. (Related link: Poll results)


Kerry is ahead in Washington state and tied with Bush in Pennsylvania, swing states that are similarly important to Democratic chances for victory.


The quartet of statewide polls reflects a race that remains competitive but is moving in Bush's direction.


Republican-financed ads attacking Kerry's service in Vietnam and a GOP convention that focused squarely on the terrorist threat seem to have succeeded in shifting a race that has been stubbornly close for months.


Bush's margins in Missouri and Ohio are the first statistically significant leads that either candidate has held in a dozen surveys USA TODAY has taken in battleground states during this election.


His 14-point edge in Missouri raises questions about whether the traditional bellwether is still competitive. The Kerry campaign hasn't purchased air time for TV ads in the state this month.


"What's happening is more and more states that are Bush states (from 2000) are getting taken off the table," says Matthew Dowd, chief strategist for the Bush campaign. "Now the battleground states are becoming much more predominantly Gore states, which is good news for us," he said.


Kerry pollster Mark Mellman says the surveys, taken Friday through Tuesday, were in the field too soon after the Republican convention to be reliable.


"The bottom line is there's no poll that's worth looking at for another week or so," he says. "You expect these states to move back to their more natural equilibrium later on."


But Republican strategists say the surveys indicate that the momentum in the race favors Bush. A USA TODAY poll after the convention showed Bush with a 7-point lead among likely voters nationwide.


In the state-by-state polls:


Missouri, which was tied in a USA TODAY poll taken just before the Democratic National Convention in July, now shows Bush ahead of Kerry by 55%-41% among likely voters. Bush carried the state in 2000 by 3 percentage points.


Ohio, where Bush lagged by 6 points in mid-July, now favors him by 9 points. Among the larger pool of registered voters, Bush's lead was just 1 point. He carried the state by 4 points in 2000.


The other states surveyed showed no meaningful difference between the registered-voter and likely-voter samples.


Pennsylvania was even two weeks ago and remains essentially tied.


Washington state is a bright spot for Kerry. He leads Bush by 8 points.


Voters in all four states said the economy was the most important issue affecting their vote, with terrorism second. The war in Iraq was third in Missouri, Pennsylvania and Washington. In Ohio, health care was seen as more critical than Iraq.


Bush was seen as the candidate who would better handle the economy by Missouri voters; Kerry was favored on that issue in Pennsylvania and Washington. They were tied in Ohio. But in all four states — even in Washington, where Kerry leads overall — voters said Bush was better able to handle terrorism.

 

are you describing the sound going on inside Bush's head?

 

Haven't you guys learned from the past to keep an eye on the Florida vote?

 

Did you want a long debate on polls? I don't think it will happen. Now if you want to debate an issue like somebody in the President's administration with top security clearance comprimising our national security by revealing the name of an intel agent while we have troops in the field fighting the war on terror, then you would get a response.

 

I hope you are not seriously trying to compare the intelligence of the candidates, much less trying to say that GWB is more intelligent than Kerry.

There are only two truly intelligent candidates that show up in the polls and neither of them are GWB.

 

Kerry is not the other one either, VOTE NADER!!!

 

http://aolsvc.news.aol.com/elections/article.adp?id=20040910162509990002&cid=946

Bush Holds Lead Over Kerry in New Poll
President Favored by Wide Margin on National Security
By RON FOURNIER, AP

WASHINGTON (Sept. 11) - President Bush has a slight lead over Democrat John Kerry in an Associated Press poll, but the president has a big advantage on protecting the country - the issue voters say they care about most.

''If we don't take care of the terrorists, we certainly won't have to worry about the economy,'' said Janet Cross, 57, of Portsmouth, Ohio, who switched from Democrat to Republican for the last election.

Seven weeks before Election Day, Bush is considered significantly more decisive, strong and likable than Kerry, and he has strengthened his position on virtually every issue important to voters, from the war in Iraq and creating jobs - two sources of criticism - to matters of national security and values.

Since the Democratic National Convention ended in late July, the president has erased any gains Kerry had achieved while reshaping the political landscape in his favor: Nearly two-thirds of voters think protecting the country is more important than creating jobs, and Bush is favored over Kerry by a whopping 23 percentage points on who would keep the United States safe.

Among those most likely to vote, the Republican ticket of Bush and Vice President Dick Cheney holds a lead of 51 percent to 46 percent over Kerry and Sen. John Edwards, with independent Ralph Nader receiving 1 percent.

The AP-Ipsos poll found minorities, urban residents and other Democratic voters unified behind Kerry, as would be expected in the fall. But the Massachusetts senator lost ground in virtually every other demographic group: less-educated voters, suburbanites, rural voters, the middle class, married couples and baby boomers.

''I'm pretty open. It's easy to be swayed,'' said Larry Wise, a 52-year-old undecided voter from Voluntown, Conn., who works in commercial construction. ''I'm not happy with Bush's war policy, but I would like to see Kerry offer a couple more concrete ideas, not just rhetoric.''

Among all registered voters, Bush-Cheney led the Democratic ticket 51 percent to 43 percent, a bounce in support since early August, when Kerry-Edwards led 48-45 percent.

The reversal is the result of a month of GOP-inspired criticism of Kerry's war record combined with a Republican National Convention scripted to undercut the Democrat's credibility and cast Bush as a steady commander in chief, said strategists in both campaigns.

''There's something I don't like about Kerry - too wishy-washy,'' said Don Dooley, a 54-year-old conservative Democrat from Grand Prairie, Texas, who is leaning toward Bush. ''George Bush is not the ideal kind of person, but at least he's more predictable than Kerry.''

The question now is whether Bush's gains are as temporary as they were for Kerry - or the first sign of a fundamental shift in the race.

Democrats predicted the race will be even in the next week or two, especially in the dozen or so states where the election will be decided.

For the first time since Kerry wrapped up the nomination, the AP-Ipsos poll suggests that a majority of voters - 52 percent - approve of the president's job performance and lifts him out of the danger zone for incumbents.

Bush has fought an uphill battle against voter anxiety, fueled by the loss of nearly 1 million jobs during his term, rising health care costs and a war in Iraq that has led to more than 1,000 U.S. military deaths.

Half of voters approve of Bush's handling of the economy, up from 46 percent in August and the highest since January. His approval rating for the war on terrorism increased from 51 percent to 55 percent.

Voters were slightly more likely to say a candidate's positions on issues are more important than leadership and personal qualities. Of those who cited issues, Kerry was favored by 10 percentage points. People making a gut-level choice overwhelmingly favored Bush, 65-29 percent.

On the question of who can be trusted to protect the country, Bush gained 7 percentage points and Kerry lost the same amount - a 14-point swing. The shift was just as big on decisiveness, with 75 percent assigning that trait to Bush and just 37 percent saying they would use that word to describe Kerry.

The AP-Ipsos survey of 1,286 registered voters, conducted Sept. 7-9, had a margin of error of 2.5 percentage points. The sample of 899 likely voters had a margin of error of 3.5 percentage points.

---=

AP Political Writer Ron Fournier and manager of news surveys Trevor Tompson contributed to this story.

 

http://www.jsonline.com/news/metro/aug04/255181.asp

push polling helps




An out-of-state Republican polling firm faces at least one danger when calling Wisconsin voters to ask for their opinions:

It might dial up Democratic activist and former lobbyist Tom Krajewski.

If Krajewski does pick up the phone, look out - he might just write and sign an affidavit implying your firm broke a state law. Then he might send his sworn statement to the presidential candidate John Kerry's campaign and two guys with a column in Milwaukee.

And then, Mr. Pollster, you might just have to spend some time explaining to reporters why your employees won't disclose who is paying for the survey - as required by state law.

What a pain.
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This month, Oregon-based Moore Information called hundreds of state residents to ask them questions about the presidential contest.

Little did the questioner know that one of the respondents was Krajewski, who immediately began taking notes. And when the survey veered toward becoming a push poll - encouraging answers with slanted questions, particularly about the current swift-boat controversy - Krajewski quickly called foul.

And when a political veteran such as Krajewski calls foul, he knows whom to call to make a little mischief.

"I wrote the affidavit so I would have an accurate representation, to the best of my recollection, of what happened," Krajewski said, sounding as innocent as an altar boy.

"I gave it to the Kerry people; I thought they should be aware of it."

Krajewski, a veteran spinmeister, said he was "terribly offended" by one question in particular.

The question, as Krajewski wrote in his affidavit: "Whose position do you think is closer to the truth - those 'veterans who served with John Kerry' and say that he does not deserve the medals that he received, or John Kerry who disagrees with the veterans that he served with and who appear in the ad?"

That is, to put it mildly, a nudge, if not an all-out shove.

Days after conducting the poll, the firm put out a news release nationally, saying it had found that President Bush was slightly ahead of his Democratic challenger in Wisconsin, though the lead was within the 4 percentage point margin of error. The release said the poll was conducted "for our own consumption."

Turns out that might be not completely accurate.

Bob Moore, the firm's president and founder, declined to discuss any of the questions in the poll, including the one on the controversial ads put out by Swift Boat Veterans for Truth.

He wouldn't even say whether Krajewski's notes were accurate.

As for who paid for the poll, Moore said his firm picked up the cost for the single question about which presidential candidate Wisconsin residents support.

He wouldn't disclose who paid for any of the other questions.

"I don't want to open that Pandora's box," said Moore, whose 20-year-old firm does polling for a variety of businesses but handles only Republican political clients.

Actually, Wisconsin law requires pollsters to disclose who is paying them if a person being questioned asks for that info. And - no surprise here - Krajewski swears he repeatedly demanded the info of the questioner, her supervisor and, ultimately, Moore himself.

Moore told us, "I never heard of that law before."

Learn something new every day - even after 20 years in the business.

 

"Five new polls today, two of them significant. Kerry has moved back into the lead in Pennsylvania albeit by less than the MoE so it doesn't mean a lot. The Survey USA poll gives Kerry 49% to Bush's 47%. Picking up Pennsylvania also gives him the 270 votes in the electoral college needed to win.

The other significant poll is in Missouri, where Survey USA puts Bush ahead 48% to 46%. Thursday we had Bush up by 14% according to a Gallup poll. I didn't believe that then and I still don't. Gallup clearly messed up, like Time and Newsweek last week. Before believing a strange results, check the state graphs to see if it fits in. Barring major news, jumps of 10% in a week are just not going to happen in this race.

Bush has maintained his huge leads in Indiana, Kansas, and Kentucky. Consequently, neither candidate will set foot in any of these states."

www.electoral-vote.com

 

George Bush scored over a 1400 on his SAT. The man is not as dumb as everyone thinks. Not saying that the SAT is a huge factor in determining someone's intelligence, but its a figure a lot of people can relate to because most of us have taken it and can compare.

 

No. Bush scored a 1206 (566 verbal, 640 math)
http://www.straightdope.com/columns/010622.html

a good score but it was 200 points lower than the score of the average Yale Freshman in 1970
http://www.usa-presidents.info/gwbush.htm

 

1211.

 

so did the SAT actually used to give scores that weren't multiples of 10? it always was weird on Saved By the Bell when they gave Zach a 1502. i just assumed they didn't wanna make it a real score and so didn't make it end in zero. i remember taking the PSAT for 7th graders thing (TIP program?) around that time and they were doing the multiples of 10 thing then. strange.