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REBOUNDING, Statistical analysis of How Houston has Performed and DWIGHT vs OMER

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by Voice of Aus, Dec 22, 2013.

  1. Voice of Aus

    Voice of Aus Contributing Member

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    After just over 1/3 of the season completed and yet again stumbling along the recent game threads I have seen an increase in peoples stance on our rebounding. People have been complaining about our ability to stop giving up rebounds, which made me think, is there a trend between when we rebound poor against certain teams?

    How Houston has performed in respect to offensive and defensive rebounding

    I immediately expected the high monster frontcourts of the league to carry their respected teams to above average status in terms of offensive and defensive rebounding standings and I can say by the graph I made, their was some surprises as seen below.

    [​IMG]

    (NOTE: the teams in green are teams the rockets are undeafted against this season, the teams in red are the teams the rockets have not beat this year, the teams in blue represent teams we have spilt the series with, and teams in black represent teams w have not played.)


    - note some observations can be made such as the rockets tend to beat teams who are both above average rebounders offensively and defensively (which include the likes of Chicago, Toronto, Minnesota, Memphis, Detroit) and then bizarrely struggle with the poor rebounding teams ( some examples are the Clippers, Phoenix, Dallas and Utah).
    - The heat are by far the worst offensive rebounding team however with the team being so efficient with their shot selection it doesn’t impact and hamper their production as much as it would on any team in the league.
    - It seems the trend of more half court slower teams (like the heat, the spurs, Brooklyn, the Knicks and the Clippers) all seem to be below average rebounding teams.

    Back to Houston now and when you further break down that data into the assorted colours it shows you can start to see how the data trends flow.
    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]


    Houston on this data seem to thrive and enjoy playing teams who crash the boards for a variety of reasons as it sets up our fast paced offence as the other teams scrambles to grab offensive boards or it could be due to teams who crash the boards may not themselves trying to run the fast break and allows us to set up in our half court defence compared to transition defence.
    I thought it was interesting to note how good of an offensive rebounding team we actually are. Especially when you consider all the injuries to our bigs over the first 1/3 of the season complete.

    DWIGHT VS OMER

    Is it fair to debate a former lead league leading rebounder to Omer? Probably not but I’m sure since he feels he is starter quality (and he is right about that) that these 2 rebounding should be further investigated.

    First off, their both excellent at rebounding as the numbers will prove and this debate should be seen as a positive
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]


    (all data from 2013-2014 season)

    The first outlier that screamed out to me was the fact Dwight only has 35.6% of his rebounds contested, which could be attributed to the respect and reputation of been a prominent rebounder compared to Omer been challenged at the normal rate of above 40%.

    These guys also don’t have any major weakness’s in the difference between defensive or offensive rebounding this year, which is impressive for Omer since he has had to share time with Dwight, and also striking for Dwight given how much attention is being made to him either not boxing out ot challenging the shot then giving up and offensive board to his direct player.

    But to analysis this duo properly you need to acknowledge Omer’s steller season in Houston in the 2012-2013 season.

    [​IMG]
    (note: image above is Omer Asik's rebounding data from the 2012-2013 season)

    The number even beats out Dwights current season which sees him as one of the top tier rebounders this year, pulling down 21.9% of all available rebounds compared to Dwights 21.8% this season.

    Both impressive big man if both in the rotation can play either with or without eachother will dramatically incline our data in offensive and defensive rebounding as the drop off from Dwight to smith ( only grabs 22.2% of defensive rebounds), Dmo (only grabs 15.6% of defensive rebounds) and Tjones (only grabs 19.5% of defensive rebounds though could be seen as skewed as he plays a bulk of his time with Dwight) is all to much.


    Get better Omer we need you in any capacity right now.

    [​IMG]
     
    1 person likes this.
  2. YaoMing#1

    YaoMing#1 Member

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    I agree, having asik, while not a good offensive player, really opens things up for us on that end with the 2nd unit. Imagine jermey Lin and Arron brooks getting screens up top from Asiks 7 ft 280 lb rather that Greg smith. He wil, open the floor for the shooters in the 2 unit. ( casppi, Garcia, brooks, Lin) while also protecting all of their defensive shortcomings.

    Dwight Howard is our big dawg and when he wants to play elite defense their is no one I repeat no one better than him on that end of the court regardless of position. With that said Omer is a 10 million starting center in the league because he can play elite defense consistently all game long, because he doesn't have to get 55/60 touches on offense like Dwight.

    Asik coming off the bench to give us 20 min a night with the 2nd unit, should make the rockets 2nd unit substantially better. Anytime you can bring one of the top 3 defensive centers in the league off your bench you have a very strong team. Our biggest problems with the 2nd unit is grabbing rebounds when Dwight's off the court. With Omer that problem gets solved as evidence by the OP.

    Our biggest weakness right now is injuries so we need asik back like 3 games ago lol. I think a rotation of :

    Beverly
    Harden
    Parsons
    Jones
    Howard
    Asik
    Lin
    Casppi
    Garcia
    Brooks

    These guys all deserve to be playing, you can interchange Garcia and brooks depending on which guy is hitting his shots. This 2nd unit becomes a real asset to the team with asik because you can basically play the same way with asik 1 in 4 out like they play with Dwight. It should really make a difference with players like casppi and Garcia who are much better catching and shooting than off the dribble.

    Even with the loss at Indiana I still feel as if this team can play with anyone. It's going to take some time but once James harden finds his shooting touch and changes his shot selection. This team should really be hard to stop for anyone. Dwight's been playing at MVP form and if he keeps it up,he's only a healthy James harden away from being what we all envisioned...... A real contender.
     
  3. Voice of Aus

    Voice of Aus Contributing Member

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    All good points there I also note that the difference between offence Asik this heat and last year is that Asik now plays the same system that dwight plays, which allows him to get post touches and be able have shooters spread out to make it easier for everyone to understand their role.

    Also as I mentioned the poor stats from DMo, TJones and Smith all should be a non factor come playoff time as they shouldn't be playing backup C if this teams front court stays somewhat settled and should really be a weapon as we will control the glass in every series
     
  4. RememberSura

    RememberSura Member

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    Wow, nice work
     
  5. nolimitnp

    nolimitnp Contributing Member

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    Oh I sooo hope Omer changes his mind
     
  6. Voice of Aus

    Voice of Aus Contributing Member

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    Also forgot to include in the original post.

    the nest 15 games predicted results based solely off the rebounding data and how The Rockets have performed against certain teams.

    [​IMG]
    (note: These are our next 15 opponents for this season. The green signifies wins, the yellow means the series has now become a split series, and red signfies teams we still have not beaten).
    we end up going 8 wins, 7 losses with this thinking, however with this method not factoring in injuries, home/away, and other factors it will be interesting to see how accurate it is.
     

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