i have trouble believing this, but...and some of the polls show W tied, or only slightly behind in NJ. http://www.rasmussenreports.com/New York_Fall 2004.htm -- September 20, 2004--John Kerry's lead in New York is down to single digits. The Empire State, among the bluest of the Blue States from Election 2000, is still in the Kerry column for our Electoral College projections, but the raw numbers are stunning. Confirming findings found in other recent polls, Rasmussen Reports shows John Kerry leading George Bush by merely five percentage points, 49% to 44%. Four years ago, Al Gore defeated Bush to carry New York by a 25 point margin. Our last New York survey found Kerry up by 19 points. Bush is also closer than expected in neighboring New Jersey.
not sure what btfw means, but i'm also not sure why it should matter. if you've followed his daily tracking numbers you'll see he's had kerry ahead, sometimes significantly so, many times. right after the DNC he had kerry w/ 254 ECVs. not, kerry has 189. that seems a fairly accurate reflection of how the dynamic of the race has changed.
The only way Kerry loses New York is if he bends the Statue of Liberty over and starts pounding away.
If he had the super human strength to do that he might lose NY but everyone else would vote for super Kerry.
Kerry is starting to gain ground again. www.electoral-vote.com He is competitive or leading in every major battleground state. Bush has gone from a 327-211 lead to a 256-239 lead in just one day. I'm certainly more upbeat about the campaign, and I think things are starting to turn around. Bush's lies are starting to come back to bite him.
I have posted this elsewhere but it is a good read on presidential surveys ... Why voter surveys don't agree Currently, a statistical dead heat. Debates could decide this thing. I bet that makes GWB a happy camper.
e-vote.com is weird today. Bush has jersey, which i strongly doubt he will win over, and maryland is dead even, which I am also skeptical about. on the other hand Ark FL and Iowa are probably going to the Pres.
I think Super Kerry would test poorly at the Legion of Doom. Luckily the Hall of Doom only has a few electoral votes, and Bizarro and Solomon Grundy are typically poor in debates, though they stay on message excellently. Unfortunately, if you want to talk about soft money - Lex Luthor's a billionaire, and he regularly runs roughshod over campaign finance rules. He's going to get a stern lecture from the FEC, let me tell you.
Actually, he's not. All that happened was that Zogby's latest poll came out, which has been notoriously pro-Kerry the whole season. Nice try though!
i'm not sure anyone should be triumphalist about polls w/ 6 weeks to go. the only one that matters in nov. 2nd. the numbers are interesting however, and show the depth of Kerry's lack of support, if such a thing is possible. not sure this means W support is that strong, but is rather an indication of how pathetic a campaign kerry has run to this point. see my thread about what that might mean about a kerry presidency if the media somehow manage to drag his limp carcass across the finish line first.
can't they just ban polling so many days before the election? i just think the polling itself contributes too much to the outcome. Some people won't vote because they feel it's hopeless. Some won't vote because they feel their candidate can win without their vote. And I think many people vote for whoever is in the lead just so they feel they are on the winning side. It already dictates the campaign trails of the candidates and who is picked as the running mate. Polling is bad.
Actually, I think Arkansas might go to Kerry. Talked to a lot of folks up there who are unhappy with Bush.
It's not just Zogby... Investor's Business Daily/Christian Science Monitor poll out today has exactly the same numbers as Zogby: Bush 46%, Kerry 43% among likely voters. Among registered voters Bush 44%, Kerry 43%.
Agreeed. At some point, they should stop polling - neither candidate needs to know where they stand cause they should be doing their best always. Also, there should be no "results" on election day until the polls have closed everywhere across America OR there is a definitive winner regardless of whether or not all the booths are closed.
Owe you an answer? Perhaps you don't understand the meaning of CASE CLOSED. It means you lose and I'm done with you in that thread. Now you know. GOOD DAY
