With the spurs losing today and the lakers today looks like we gained some ground/extended our lead on these teams. going into this week now utah 33-17 SA 33-18 Hou 32-18 LAL 30-22 We play only twice this week, tuesday at home against the kings and again against dallas. Realistically I see us going 1-1 losing to the mavs ( ) that would put us at 33-19 heading into the all-star break. Utah plays the hawks tomorrow and the cavs wednesday, both games in salt lake. I can see them winning both placing them at 35-17 SA plays the nets on tuesday followed up against the pistons on wednesday. They probably will lose the pistons game so they would end the first half at 34-19 LAL plays the knicks at home and then the cavs again at home, they are probably the worst team to try to predict on since they are so inconsistent. I can see them going 0-2 against them or 2-0. to play the avg's I'll say 1-1 putting them at 31-23. provided that we do not hit any major injuries from here or lose any "gimme" games (which the rockets have done a good job not doing this year) it seems the rockets do have the 5th spot in a good grasp, but not on hold but the 4th spot is not far away at all. 3rd is a possiblity but the jazz have not lost too much of a step when losing boozer, milsap has done admirable in his stead and okur has been very clutch this year as the jazz have won several tight games without boozer. The jazz may start losing on their good luck in the close games which is what i hope for. They have gone 4-1 in the games boozer hasnt played (not including the game he was injured in) winning the games by an avg of 3.5 points. (the one game they did lose was on a last sec 3 by vince carter) i would say our odds for the fourth spot is actually 50/50 at this point, one can only hope those odds tip in our favor when yao is back. The third spot seems less likely unless we have some games go our way or if the other teams lose games that they shouldnt lose. realistically what do you think the rockets' chances are in attaining home court for the playoffs this year? (btw i am totally psyched that i can even started a thread like this, after yao went down i started txting all my friends saying how sweet it would be to have a yao/oden/battier front court or a yao/battier/durant front court)
The fourth spot is the farthest away. Utah or Denver will be 4 as the division winner. Under the rules it's not possible for the Rockets to get the 4. I see the Rockets finishing ahead of the Spurs, though.
no its possible for the rockets to get the fourth spot. the top 4 spots will be decided by the top 3 division winners and then the next best record in the conference. So if there is the case where dallas phoenix and utah have the three best records the fourth spot will go to either Houston/SA/LAL it isnt like last year where the top 3 have to be division winners
ain't matter if the rockets finish 5th, as long as we have a better record than our 4th spot opponent, we get the homecourt advantage AFAIK can anyone confirm this?
only if the fourth place record is the third division winner (at this rate it looks like it would be either utah or denver) and thats only if they have a worse record than the 5th place team.
Does it even matter what seed you are after the third spot? Home court goes to the team with the better record.
Yup that is true. If we have a better record than the 4 spot, but are the 5 spot, then *technically* we have the 4 spot due to our home court advantage.
Does this mean that you expect the Rockets to finish in third place in the West? I think its quite possible as one might expect a surge once Yao Ming comes back onto the court.
We're gonna be 3rd or 5th barring a major meltdown *knock on wood* Lakers have a TOUGH schedule. In March and April they face only 2 Eastern teams, and half their games are on the road. They also have 6 back-to-backs in that span. Clippers are too far behind. Either way though, if we get 5th seed but our record is better than Utah's (but not San Antonio's) we still have homecourt in round 1. Basically, seeding decides matchups, record decides homecourt.
Damn, if we can keep to within two games of San Antonio till Yao comes back, we have a great chance at 3rd seed. Just keep the fingers crossed, and lets hope for the best!
if we finish ahead of the spurs then we would be 3rd or 4th. if we finish with a better record than the jazz then we are 3rd...if not then we are 4th.
Yeah, exactly. The Rockets are just gonna keep getting better and better. I wanna see the Rockets finish as high as possible (3), but then I also want them to finish 4 or 5. I think the Rockets are gonna have a better chance against the Mavs than the Suns, so I wanna see them in the second.
The way the Suns are playing I am cheering on a 5th seed. Because Suns will be GOOD come playoff time, but right now with injuries they will become 2nd seed. I want 5th seed with a better record than Jazz, thus having homecourt 1st round and Mavs in round 2, then HOPEFULLY Spurs in Conference Finals, PERFECT workout if that happens.
Yeah, that would definitely be the best case scenario. This could quite possibly be the hardest year ever to get out of the west, but that route provides the best matchups for the Rockets.
I guess I'm not getting something. I thought the 3 division winners get the top 3 seeds. In that case, we can't be #3 since we won't catch the Mavs. Assuming the Lakers can't keep up, that leave us and the Spurs fighting for seeds #4 and #5. And that is the worst possible scenario. We all know the Suns and Mavs will be the top 2 seeds, so you'll have to play one of them in the second round and the other in the WCF. The only thing worse would be to have to play the Spurs, too. Which appears to be exactly where we're headed. Please, somebody tell me I'm wrong.
top 3 division winners are not gauranteed top 3 spots this year. so if rox have a better record than the jazz who will most likely be their division winner, rox will be 3 seed, assuming of course rox don't catch up to either mavs or suns spurs will be 5th seed in that scenario but if they have a better record than utah, they have home court in 1st round. jazz will still be considered 4th seed by the fact that division winners cannot be seeded lower than 4...
I'm gonna throw this in from left field: If Nash is out an extended period of time after the All-Star break (which looks doubtful), the #2 position will be up for grabs because the Suns will continue their meltdown without him. In the loss column, the Jazz are 5 games behind them and we and the Spurs are down 6. I expect at least one, probably two, of the three teams to go on a roll after the break. If the Suns sputter, they will fall to #3, maybe worse. Of course, if Nash comes back strong the Suns will make a run at the Mavs and leave everyone in the dust. Regardless, I want us to meet them in the playoffs. Crazy me. Will, the worst division winner is only guaranteed the #4 spot, and if the #5 team has a better record, the #5 team has home court advantage in the 1st round. In essence, the worst division winner is really guaranteed #5 since they could be on the road in the 1st round.
OK, thanks for the clarification. And thank you, David Stern. So if I understand you, the whole thing boils down to either us or the Spurs passing the Jazz. As long as that happens, and the Spurs don't fall below the Lakers, we at least avoid the Spurs in the first round. Then we "just" have to beat the Suns and Mavs to reach the finals. Unless the Suns fall below #3, we still have to play both of them, even if we steal seed #2.
