Question for those of you so upset that we might have dropped 2 spots in the lottery

Brandon Roy

 

its a shallow draft

the cutoff point of quality players is about the 7th or 8th spot

thats why people are upset

not to mention we have a better chance at winning the lottery

 

Using your logic, a player in the top 3-5 could also have easily slid down to 6-7. But now sitting at 8-10, that would be a less likely scenario.

In terms of specific guys, I had a few guys that I wanted (Aldridge, Thomas, Roy, Gay) and would have been content with any of them falling to our pick. They're all projected to be top 5 guys, and they did have a good chance to fall out of the top 5. But going all the way to 10 (where we can easily be based on a coin-flip) probably isn't going to happen.

 

The lower our pick, the higher the chances of another team getting whoever the Rox may want.

You'd have to ask the Rox who they want. If they are seriously looking at one specific guy, they either know he will fall to them, or they deserve the criticism people are throwing out there. Who knows?

 

dude, it's not about who the player is ..it's about the whole idea,, when u r a lottery team, u would always want to have a higher draft pick.. it's not about who is in and who is not.. the draft is all about luck and chances, so u want to have a good chance even if the draft has all MOochies ... plus winning is meaningless now.. so why not lose and improve ur chances in landing a good player...??

 

I was hoping for the 6th spot as here our chances of moving up increased.

 

It's kind of a dumb way of looking at it. A higher seed gives you more options. Even if the guy we want is still there at 9 doesn't mean it isn't valuable to pick 7th. What if we want to trade the pick? 7 is more valuable than 9. What if we want to trade down to 9 to get the guy we want and get compensated for going down a couple of slots? Instead, we gave it away for free.

Say a store will give you a gift card for electronics. Do you want $300 or $500? You might be able to get what you want for $300; does that mean you don't take the $500?

 

Let me ask you a question. If you have choice to pick a gift card that allow you to buy one item at Wal-Mart, which one would you pick? the 10 dollar one or the 8 dollar one? You should pick the one with more value. It does not gurrente you will get a more valuable item. But you get better chance with it.

sixth pick simply has more value than 8th pick, is it clear?

 

Arrrrrrrrrrrugh!!!!

I did not try to copy your idea! (damn, what is that English term for this? starting with "P", just could not find it in my dictionary)

 

Actually, I think your question was sufficiently answered. The problem is the draft is, at best, 8 players deep. Yes, there is a significant drop off in talent after the top 7 or 8 players. So in order to answer your question to your satisifaction, I'll list the top 8 players I'd want. Then, if any of them slide to 10, you can say "See, I told you so!", but barring serious stock dropping injuries or some under-valued wonderkind leaving scouts in awe at the pre-draft camp, it's HIGHLY unlikely.

1. LaMarcus Aldridge
2. Tyrus Thomas
3. Rudy Gay
4. Adam Morrison
5. Brandon Roy
6. Andrea Bargnani
7. Josh McRoberts (who may not come out)
8. Rodney Carney

I won't cry if we end up with a guy like Ronnie Brewer or Mardy Collins, but I'd definitely prefer any of the top 8. And really, I'm not all that enthused after the top 5.

 

haha

classic

I'll take the 7th before the 10th spot

isn't that logical enough...

 

I asume it is beign scarstic. Maybe I was not very clear with my English. But If you read it again, you probably can acept my explaination: I said the gift card allow you to buy one item. and a more valuable gift card(face value) does not gureente you buy a more valuable item(the item you buy maybe over priced or something else), but you get better chance to buy a more valuable item with more valuable card.

Do I sound strange?

 

But, you're wrong here. The 7 spot is more valuable than the 9 spot regardless of how you eventually spend it. In a trade it is worth more. In use, it gives you more to pick from and is therefore more valuable. We may end up missing someone who is better and picked at #28; but it won't change the fact that #7 is always and everywhere more valuable than #9.

As for the gift card analogy, it works well. The value of that card is up to you to use wisely. Player draft values are driven by the market just like the value of electronics or anything else. And, sometimes you do get a bargain. You can get an expensive stereo that turns out to be a piece of crap and you can get one cheap that never gives you trouble.

Conversely, if the guy you want in the draft is going to be available at #9 and you have #7, you can trade down and get something extra. But, if the guy you want is going to be taken at #7 and you've got #9, you'll have to pay to move up. The value of the two are not the same.

 

Given two stochastic series, you always take the stochasticly dominant series.

Oh, forget about that. 7th > 9th, as simple as that.

Do they not teach math in primary school anymore?