Of all the deals floating around, trading with the Clippers seems to be the most likely. In addition to the #1 pick, what else (who else) would we have to give up in salary under the following scenarios?: We want Odom and both of their 1st round picks. We want Odom and Kandi. We want Brand. I'd want Brand first, Odom and Kandi second, and Odom and the picks 3rd. I realize including Kandi would complicate things as he's a free agent, so he would have to be signed to a new contract before being traded (and who knows how much that new contract would be). I'm assuming that in every scenario we'd be trading Kenny Thomas. I'm also assuming that we'd like to include Glen Rice in any package. So, what would it take, from the Rockets' side, to make any of these three deals work under the cap and CBA?
BDJ, Currently we are over the cap until we renounce our rights to Williams (NOTE: I have not looked at the cummulative salaries of our other FAs this year. I am assuming that that dollar value is less than the dollar number we need to get under the current cap - $42.5 million, but maybe not so - lets just stick with Williams $5.0 million cap hit for arguments sake). What this means is we can not take on additional salaries (excluding the MCE) unless we trade salaries equal or greater to the salaries we take on. What this means is if we want Brand, Odom or any other players in a trade (excluding draft picks as they do not count against the cap - read: no cap value here) we have to trade a players or players with a combined salary cap hit that is equal or greater to the cap value of Brand, Odom or any other player we receive. Now if we renounce Williams and that puts us under the cap (about $1.0 million). Then we can acquire a player with a cap hit for the amount we are under the cap. Clearly, we do not have much manuvering room in this scenario. That is why everyone is gripping about the bad contracts. So, what this means is that we want to unload a big (Rice, Taylor, Cato or Mooch) contract while receiving lesser contracts. Note: the Clips are ideal trade partners for us in this case because the Clips are one of two teams under the cap. That means that they can take on more salary than they trade away. Good news for us. We can get players and picks while lowering our overall cap situation. The trick here is if we go under the cap by more than the MCE, we lose the MCE this year or any year we remain more than the MCE dollar value under the cap. We MAY lose the MCE this year, but it probably won't be problem in subsequent years as we will likely resign Stevie to a monster contract this year. Is this clear as mud now?
aelliott, hey partner & NIKEstrad are all superior to me but I'll give it a shot. 1) Draft picks are merely a "right" to sign a drafted player. In a trade, the draft picks have no trade value. 2) If draft picks are signed, there is a waiting period before they are allowed to be traded (around Dec. 15) . The signed value is used at this time. 3) To trade for Lamar Odom, the Rockets need to send out ~$3.6m to make it work cap wise as they are over the cap. The Rockets could send more as the Clipps are under the cap. 4) The Rockets can not draft day trade for Olowokandi as he is a Qualifying Offer FA. A trade for Olowokandi can only occur after around July 18th and that assumes no other team makes a higher bid for him (Bulls or Wiz have cap room). 5) Kandi + Odom > As in #3, the contract value received by the Rockets must be equal to or greater than the amount they ship out. Kandi's contract will be in around #6.1m. 6) In order to trade for Elton Brand either on draft day or after July 18th, the Rockets will have to send/receive a value ~$4,895,656. Draft day trades including Kandi-man are I think illegal. But have additional problems in that if another team bids up the price then the deal can fall thru and the Rockets or Clipps may wind up having to keep a player they selected for the other team.
BDJ, Sorry about that. I answered the CBA portion of your question, but not the trade portion. A workable trade example: Rice, KT and the #1 For Brand, Odom, Maggette, #8 and #12 or Rice, KT, Collier and the #1 & #38 For the same package You could also just do: Rice and the #1 For Brand, Odom, #8 and #12 They all work, but which one is likely??? Point being, Clips are eatting more salary than sending out. Notice the picks have zero effect. Hope that helps.
Gator, Although I have not checked the dollar values all else is on the money. Do you know many iterations of this stuff HP and I have discussed? Man, I think we know more about the cap than we ever wanted too!!! LOL Nice job!
ROCKET!!! - Sorry I didn't single you out earlier. I never dreamed when I wandered in here 2 years ago how much time would be spent learning the CBA. As you know, it's a challenge apart from evaluating talent. I looked at your trades and they all look pretty much on the money. From there, it gets down to value judgements: Would Sterling take on Rice's contract? How good is Kandi-man really? Would the Clipps laugh if the Rocks started the bidding with #15 + KT + a future Lotto protected 1st for Odom? Is Sterling going to make Brand the centerpiece and Max him next summer? Good job!!!
Gator, No insult taken whatsoever. All are good questions. One never knows what Sterling may do. He is such a greedy SOB, the idea of Rice for two years and the expiration of a +$9.0 million contract may have him wetting himself. By the by, I don't ever recall him paying a max contract to ANY player. Do you????? At this point, I think he is really just trying to put a team on the floor that fills seats that does not cost him too much. It continues to look like a revolving door to me. Notice I left Kandi out of every iteration. That goes back to the talent evaluation part of your post. I just do not see what he adds to our team that we could not gain elsewhere.
ROCKET!!! - The Clipps have had some successful teams but I'm not sure if it was by design or by accident. Trading Olowokandi sure does fit the revolving door analogy but then again trading for Brand appears to go against his usual practices. I'm a little leary of dealing with the Clipps. If we're going to trade Ming, I'd prefer to send him East! I haven't worked out all the numbers but if we could send MJ the #1 + Rice ($9.8m) for the Wiz's #11 we may be able to clear enough cap room for Rashard. So the question becomes is it better to have Ming or Rashard and whoever remains at #11 - Borchardt, Tsika, Woods, Jefferies, Hilario, Nachbar, Stoudamire? And does #11 + #15 move you up? Forgive me, I digress.
You guys are damn good! The problem I see here is that Rice's contract is needed to swing any deal, as KT's salary is so small (and it has to be Rice, as the Clips would never take Taylor). The central question would seem to be, would Sterling be willing to absorb Rice's contract for Jay Williams? If yes, a deal like this would be likely: #1 and Rice FOR #8, #12, Odom, and Maggette This would leave us with good bargaining chips: 3 draft picks, Kenny Thomas, and Maggette. I'd even be willing to give up #15 to grease the wheels, but I'd insist on both of their picks. Otherwise, I'd take my chances with Yao. Adding Kandi to the mix would be very complicating, but I think he'd be a huge upgrade over Cato. Kandi plays Shaq hard and actually has a post game.
I don't think MJ would want Rice - too much ego at the same position. But stranger things have happened. I remember Jerry West clearing cap room to snag Shaq in the same manner.
BDJ, Thanks! I did not check out an Odom/Maggette package. I don't know if that overloads the Clips or clears under their cap. Do you really want two SFs in one deal though...maybe? I don't know. In any event, I think the Clips would demand that KT be in any trade. Then again...I could be wrong!!!! Gator, I all likelyhood the Clips would draft Williams and leave Ming for Chicago. I like Lewis, but I don't know if he is worth betting the farm. That scenarion assumes Taylor and Griff stay. Taylor is our starting PF without a doubt.....if healthy. KT would continue in his roll. Where does Griff fit in? He would have to be the backup SF to Lewis. That would surely put a damper on his developement. Right now, there is no question that Griff is and will be something special. He is an exceptional talent. Within the next year or two he will demand the same attention as Garrnett. We really have had two #1 picks two years in a row.
IMHO - 1) Kandi is not a significant enough upgrade over Cato to agonize over. 2) The Clipps won't take Rice w/o #15. If I were the Clipps, this would be my counter offer to the Rockets: 8 + 12 + Odom for 1 + 15 + Rice Maybe it's late and I'm tired, but I just don't see them giving up Maggette. But it's worth a try. As mentioned earlier, I'm leary of helping anyone in the WC especially the Clipps. If that's what goes down, I take Borchardt at 8 and either Stoudamire or Nachbar at 12. Actually, the best available SF makes sense in case Odom screws up.
ROCKET!!! - You had mentioned Rashard's aquisition hindering EG'S development, but the same thing could be said for Odom. Although I will grant you that Odom could play any position on the floor except the 5. Perhaps dangling KT to the Clipps makes sense as it clears PT for EG.
No disrepect intended guys, but I dont see those that trade taking us ANYWHERE. I see us as the Clippers with Steve Francis, They will make the playoffs, and we WONT.....plain and simple. Odman, as good as he is, Wont take us to the next level and he certainly isnt worth the 1st pick overall.... Thank You, I hope I made no enemies but its the truth
Gator/BDJ, All of this is really acedemic. The trick here is Chicago. What we really need to do is get dialed into who THEY want (Personally, I think the Jay Will to Chicago is PR hype. Everyone I have talked to says Krausse, who has a reputation for falling love with certain draftees, has a hard-on for Ming). I really think this presents tremendous opportunity to us...even if they want Jay Will, we need to extract something from them. Then trade the pick. However, if I had to pick today, I would undoubtedly pick Jay Will as he represents the greatest value to the club - either through trade or trade of another player currently under consideration.
Sofine, No offense taken because I wouldn't want Odom. My target would strickly be Brand with an eye on trading Mo T and moving Griff to the SF position.
Thank you ROCKET !!!, The only way it would work with Brand is if the Rockets can move Taylor or KT, cause we already have a jam at PF, and IMHO its going to hard to move MoT, and who wants to pay a backup PF all that money plus you have to max out Brand. Now that was if you moved KT and kept MoT, anyways Thank You!
I'm not offended. All I was doing was seeing if these ideas worked capwise and observe what either sides bargaining position would be. I like Ming, I'm not that hung up on Odom, and I have stated in other threads that the idea of Kandi + MoT + Odom was a 15 win Clipper team a few years ago. BDJ, ROCKET!!! and I are just testing what is possible. Actually, I think they both favor Brand...so does Sterling I think!
I understand that u guys are kinda "dreamcasting" as it were, I have tremendous respect for you on this board, and I would ruffle the waters for anything, but when it comes to my Houston rockets, Im very passionate. My Girlfriend says Im like that Red-headed kid on the relient energy commerical, but anyways, Im sorry I butted in lol
To all, Time for sleep. Great conversation! Sofine, Believe me if we offered Mot, T Mo picks #8, #12 (if we swung a Clips trade before hand) and #15 to a bidder, it would be snapped up in a heartbeat! You underestimate Mo Ts value. Many teams needs PFs of his exact caliber. The Rockets of two years ago being one example. In addition, three first round picks within the top 15 this year is a huge carrot considering the depth of this draft. Talk at ya'll tomorrow OUT!!!
