So, everyone knows the odds of winning the lottery based on you slot in the draw. But, aren't the chances higher that you will be leapfrogged by a lower slot team and end up picking lower than your original slot. Question: Assume we have the 6th worst record. What are the odds that we actually end up picking 7th? What about 8th?
If we were 6th (there's a precipice mind you that we might fall over today down 3-4 spots) then all 3 teams would have to lose out (as you're implying obviously) their picks for the 6th seed to get ousted. Since there's a greater than 50% chance that this will not occur, the 6th seed seems somewhat safe... But what about this variable: If the first 3 seeds were to not get one of the first 3 picks, then those %ages for 4-6 take the roll of the 1-3 opportunities... not that the %age numbers change (plus the variance between 6 and 7 isn't as great as 3-4) but that and $1.25 will get you a sweet tea at Ryan's. So in closing, if I had been drinking out of the toilet, I might have drowned.
