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Question about "rebuilding properly"

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by burlesk, Jul 28, 2021.

  1. burlesk

    burlesk Serious business

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    There seems to be a lot of division on CF still over how rebuilding should work. Seems reasonable that, up to a point, we can work to improve a great deal this off-season, through draft/trades etc., and still be tanking "organically" -- we need not worry overly much about missing our shot at some of the top talent in next year's draft... FOMO or whatever makes us greedy for that talent, but we can only take so much suckitude in the meantime...

    I guess my question is: can we take any consolation from the results of the painful Astros rebuild? Is there any crossover between an MLB rebuild and an NBA one? Can we learn anything from that? Damned if it didn't work out for the Stros anyway (lol). I for one could handle another season of losing if I had faith that the Rockets could have a similar result.

    Another way of putting it might be, what are we most afraid of happening? I'm afraid of getting stuck in some kind of mid-first round pick purgatory every year, like the Rockets pre-Harden, that would prolong the rebuild unnecessarily. Is it better to work on improving, yet de-prioritize winning... (somehow? At the front office level, not the on-court level, ideally -- this year worked out great if you like to see a lot of effort with your tanking)... for another year?
     
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  2. Deuce

    Deuce Context & Nuance

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    Rockets have the #2 pick. And they should be in the lottery the following 2 years. 3 years in the lottery is about what we are seeing from good rebuilds like Memphis and Atlanta. Just have to nail those picks, especially the high ones.
     
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  3. Williamson

    Williamson JOSH CHRISTOPHER ONLY FAN
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    Honestly doing it right in the NBA is so much more important. Because you don't have an entire minor league system to draft and stash talent. You can't take 10 years developing a talent then call them up. You've got to get the right talent and, if you do, you have a very short span to acquire more.

    The Thunder did the best job I have ever seen in hitting on Durant, Westbrook and Harden. Then they blundered it and lost everything. I don't expect we're going to draft 3 future MVPs in three consecutive years, but 3 all-stars sure would be nice.
     
  4. rhino17

    rhino17 Member

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    baseball and basketball rebuilds are not similar. Basketball is all about finding the one guy to build around, without that you can't even start a rebuild. Whether that is through drafting or through trades, the goal is the same
     
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  5. burlesk

    burlesk Serious business

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    OK, thanks all, I guess I shoulda thought more about the differences, hmm
     
  6. DrNuegebauer

    DrNuegebauer Member

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    You have to get pretty lucky to rebuild solely through the draft.
    It is a stars league
    So it is about having assets to swing deals for star/s.
    Don't fall in love with the role players, they are collateral - all about kicking the can down the road with them.

    There are many ways to get a star, I'm hoping we get lucky on any one of them!

    We aren't badly placed in terms of talent with KPj, KMj, Wood - any of those 3 could take another step forward.
    Exciting to see who we get at #2, and then whether or not they can play!!
     
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  7. Salvy

    Salvy Member

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    The best way to rebuild properly is to draft Green tomorrow night and not Mobley...
     
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  8. BallSoHarden

    BallSoHarden Member

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    The Thunder did a phenomenal job in drafting, but in hindsight it almost feels like they were a result of choosing BPA and things not working out due to fit. Harden and Westbrook couldn't be on the floor at the same time (and yet someone thought a reunion was a good idea). As much as I hate to admit it, the Warriors probably did the best job in the modern NBA of drafting guys that all seemed to work very well together, and doing it with the #7,11, and 35th picks to boot. Although if OKC had shipped Westbrook instead of Harden, they very well could have won multiple championships.
     
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  9. D-rock

    D-rock Member

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    *6'6 Green, 6'10 Banchero/7'0 Holmgren, 6'8 Bates

    *7'0 Mobley, 6'5 Hardy, 7'2 Wembanyana

    Which rebuild path gets Rockets back into championship contention the soonest?
     
  10. Invisible Fan

    Invisible Fan Insider Newsletter™ 2X Diamond Member

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    Sixers flubbed a few picks in their process and only truly became legit with Embiid.

    Celtics, bless their hearts, with all of their bamboozling, maneuvering, scheming and broken promises aren't the dynasty after a well planned and disciplined post Big 3 rebuild.

    Then there was the Mark Cuban teardown for his championship 2.0 run.

    It's all a crapshoot man. Maybe Murray was doomed the day he signed that Ryno contact years before but he would've got away with it if Prince didn't injure himself on that freak dunk. You had a switch ready backup but instead turned into a colorblind dead eye non shooter that probably hated the fans as much as they hated him. Or maybe that dunk by Ryno also tore up his confidence as well as his ankle.
     
  11. hakeem94

    hakeem94 Member

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    3 years?!!! lol you dont know if you will be alive in a few months let alone in 3 years
    lets go for the title this year!
    let us be this year phoenixes!!
     
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  12. hakeem94

    hakeem94 Member

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    its more like they never become legit...PRETENDERS...

    as soon as they surround embiid with a proper supporting cast in a few years he gonna fall apart of injuries and here we come 5 new years of losing on purpose should ensue
     
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  13. hakeem94

    hakeem94 Member

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    what an amazing job they did and what a refutation to pro tankers argumentation they provide lolololol
    pro tank lovers of the Ls have nothing to stand upon lololol
     
  14. larsv8

    larsv8 Contributing Member

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    Its all about timing, and managing your assets. We are actually in an outstanding position to be good for a LONG time. We have been fortunate. Stealing KPJ was a HUGE win. Landing the #2 pick was a HUGE win. Finding KMJ and Tate was a nice bonus.

    They key to building a championship team is having a legit core that can get better and better, and having to the ability to add impact free agents before the core pieces big contracts gum up your cap space.

    Things they need to do:
    -Asset collection mode. If you can't control an asset for the next 5 years, it needs to gone. Traded for a pick to extend the asset. That includes Wood, that includes any youngster who implies he might take a qualifying offer and forego restricted free agency (Take, KPJ, KMJ).
    - You need teenagers on this team, heck Tate might even be too old and might possibly be a trade candidate.
    - This means Wood is gone. Sucks I know, but he expires in two years. Trade him today for a good pick in the draft. There WILL be opportunities.
    - Be as bad as possible for the next two years and get top 5 picks. None of this pseudo bad, like the Magic or Sacramento. You need to be the worst team in the league for the next two years. We need to set ourselves up draft wise so that the worse thing that can happen on lottery night is that we fall to five like Orlando did this year. Chicago, San Antonio, Minnesota, NOT BAD ENOUGH and they are paying the price tonight.
    - You should be doing nothing this offseason that makes an impact on immediately winning, EVERYTHING is about being good 4 years from now.
    - Don't take on money beyond two years. You must preserve the cap space for the summer when Wall and EG fall off.
    - Your team wants to dump some dead money on us? Sure, here is DJ Augustin's expiring, now give me a pick. Oh your team wants to dump dead money too? Sure, here is Avery Bradley, now give me a pick. (They should absolutely pick up AB team option by the way)
    - Use your smaller exceptions to lock up promising 2nd round picks for long term deals/
    - Love Olynyk, tell him to sign a large 1-2 year deal here and then promise to deal him wherever he wants to go. Preserve that asset.
    - Use MLE for good players who you can trade immediately. Team you want to go too can't pay you as much as we can? No problem, sign with us, we will trade you there. Preserve that asset.
    - Trade house for any pick or use him to move up the draft. Preserve that asset.
    - Absolutely do no use picks or any incentives to dump Gordon or Wall, UNLESS you think you can use that cap space to better pieces. (Unlikely). Both Wall and Gordon will be able to be moved for nothing in their final year. Some bubble team will want them to try and get over the hump. Heck we might even get something for them.
    -Absolutely zero bad contracts or dead money extending past 2022-23.

    Rockets need to be heading into the offseason of 2023 with KPJ on his big contract, Green on his rookie deal, 2022 Top 5 pick on his rookie deal, ready to make a 2023 Top 5 pick, with 60 million to spend in free agency. That is just about when we will start owing OKC picks, and just about when the Nets picks should start being interesting (likely as trade bait).

    Keep Silas, let him grow as a coach with these kids

    23-24 is the start of our next run. We should be loaded with young talented players, quality free agents to support them, no bad money, and other good picks to trade as opportunities arise.

    This is my approach. Right or not, I don't know. But with that in mind, tonight I am looking to draft Green....trade Wood to Sac/GS/CHA to nab Davion Mitchell....Use House, our later picks or even Tate to move up and get another core piece like Wagner, Senguin or Kispert.

    Go Rockets, **** Tilman.
     
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  15. Chamillionaire

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    Exactly.
     
  16. hakeem94

    hakeem94 Member

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    LOL dude we dont even know if we will be alive next year let alone in 2023 or 2024 ...in 3 years Tilemen might move this team to seattle or somewhere...or you may stop watching basketball altogether

    lets go straight for the ring this very year!
    dont fool yourself thinking in 3 years we would be loaded...

    in 3 years some of the youngins will be injured, other will be busts, some will be meh players, others would like to be traded elsewhere, etc etc the perfect moment never comes....

    if the tanking and losing works sacramaneto kings and philly would be perrenial champions

    instead go straight for the jugular this very season, load the roster with the talent and lets go, let us be the suns or the miami of the bubble year....
     
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  17. Jontro

    Jontro Member

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    i rebuilt the worst team to a championship contender in 1 season in 2k. key is getting the right trades as rookie draft suxs there.
     
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  18. Corrosion

    Corrosion Member

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    While I agree with most of what you've said here ..... the idea that "role players" are nothing more than collateral is to some degree off the mark.

    Yes , you need stars .... but you need quality players to put around those stars.

    As long as those role players are cost effective , I think you hang onto them , its when they start costing big money that you have tough decisions to make.
    A lot of it boils down to RFA Vs UFA and other teams being able to bid up their cost.
    I think that's a big part of why so many are willing to trade Tate is that he will be UFA in 2 years and who knows what he will cost Vs someone you have RFA status on that is limited cost wise.

    Bottom line , stars don't want to go to teams that are devoid of talent or maxed out cap wise - you have to be smart about who , how much and how long with those role players.
     
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  19. dobro1229

    dobro1229 Contributing Member

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    I’m most afraid of cashing out picks and young players in order to try and do what the Clips did last year… only you don’t do that for Kawhi and PG and instead cash out for Damien Lillard and SGA or worse.

    I’m not afraid of tanking and being in mid first round pick hell for years. Even the sixers hit with Embiid after missing on so many other top picks during their tank years. Your odds are in your favor as long as you have the stomach to tank 3 or even 4 years. If it turns out Green or Mobley are future stars you still might want to find a way to put him on IR later in the season to tank just to make sure we get one more high lottery pick.

    So I’m not really worried unless Stone makes stupid picks like Cleveland taking Anthony Bennett.
     
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  20. JD88

    JD88 Member

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    That would be embarrassing.

    In 2015-16, the Sixers went 10-72. That was before they drafted Embiid or Simmons.

    In 2017-18, two years later, they went 52-30.

    FOH with this "we should tank for years" garbage.
     

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