Baseball Prospectus: Effectively Wild Podcast, Episode 379 BP's Ben Lindbergh, Sam Miller, and Nick Wheatley-Schaller preview the upcoming Astros season with Zachary Levine and Evan Drellich. Spoiler 13:18: CSN fiasco is brought up. 22:03: Levine predicts 68 wins. Drellich thinks that Castro could get traded, opening the door for Max Stassi. <blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>PECOTA projects the Astros to not lose 100 games, still get the 2015 1-1 pick. <a href="http://t.co/e8wNdvaPTo">http://t.co/e8wNdvaPTo</a></p>— Astros County (@AstrosCounty) <a href="https://twitter.com/AstrosCounty/statuses/430710246785679360">February 4, 2014</a></blockquote> <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script> PECOTA forecasts a 66-96 record for the Astros in 2014. As Astros County mentioned, that record would still be good enough (or is it bad enough) for a 4th consecutive #1 pick. The Marlins are projected to finish 69-93, and the Twins and Cubs are forecasted to finish 71-91. PECOTA also predicts: Runs scored: 661 (25th) Runs allowed: 819 (30th) Batting average: .245 (t-27th) On-base percentage: .315 (t-19th) Slugging percentage: .388 (26th) OPS: .703 (23rd) Fielding runs above average: -22.4 (28th) True average: .257 (t-28th) Player projections: Jose Altuve and L.J. Hoes will be the only players to hit over .250. The projections think that Hoes will wind up splitting time with George Springer, who PECOTA predicts to triple slash .246/.328/.455 with 20 homers, 60 RBI, and 18 steals. The middle infield of Altuve and Jonathan Villar is expected to combine for 74 steals (Villar 39, Altuve 33). Only 2 players will slug over .400: Chris Carter and Brett Wallace. Matt Dominguez's forecast is .399. Springer's 1.8 WARP is tied with Altuve. Dexter Fowler paces the way with a 2.1. Jason Castro comes in at 1.7, Jonathan Villar is a 1.1 WARP player, and Chris Carter is projected to be at 1 WARP. Matt Dominguez checked in at 0.9. Fowler also has the highest VORP value, at 24.7. Next up is Springer, who checks in at 21.8. Pitching wise... ooh. Jerome Williams is not included in the projections. PECOTA believes that Dallas Keuchel, Lucas Harrell, and Brett Oberholtzer will be replacement-level players. They think Harrell and Obie will wind up splitting time between the rotation and bullpen. Harrell and Keuchel will have negative VORP values. It also projects Scott Feldman to be the only pitcher with a WARP over 1 (1.2). That is, Feldman will be good enough for just over 1 more win over a replacement-level player. He's also projected to be the most valuable pitcher; and he's the only pitcher with a double-digit VORP. The projections also suggest that regression will just maul Jarred Cosart. His 1.95 ERA will balloon to 4.53. Well, he doesn't seem to think so. <blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>Am I gonna regress from a 1.95 era? Most likely check anyone's stats lol some people are idiots. Is it spring training yet</p>— Jarred Cosart (@JarredCosart) <a href="https://twitter.com/JarredCosart/statuses/428605313957117952">January 29, 2014</a></blockquote> <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script> PECOTA projections have Jesse Crain as the only pitcher with an ERA under 4. While the projections don't believe that this will be the worst pitching staff ever, it believes that this won't be a very good pitching staff either.
I think the record projection is pretty in line with what to expect, but the player projections for the most part are not good. I don't see those player projections leading to a better record. They expect regression out of most of the team, while not having half seasons of Bud Norris & Jose Veras.
So every player that puts on an Astros jersey is gonna be terrible, how in the hell do they even project 66 wins? Why exactly would they project Jason Castro to get decidedly worse than he has been the last 2 years ? I can see expecting regression, even I expect that, but they have him regressing all the way back to being a scrub.
Regression works both way. Teams not expect to have the negative -war bullpen and outfield they trotted out last year.
They need to start bringing up all their prospects. If they are good or if they suck its time for something. If you are going to lose 100 games again might as well have springer, appel,Singleton.
Maybe you should be accusing the statistical model of being too negative as well! I too was surprised at the regression for Castro, but apparently all the models disliked his home/road splits and his overall "overachieving" of last year. Again, they're just models...and they didn't really predict his breakout season last year either. But, overall they've been pretty accurate of what teams do as a whole. If there's any sport where this sort of stuff tends to make more accurate predictions, baseball is it.
Well they're projecting 66 wins, which is about what I expect, but their method of us getting there doesn't seem to add up. I typically do believe you can more or less project baseball when you are dealing with known quantities. But, basically the Astros entire roster save for a few new faces are still unknown quantities in my book. Not to say they are all-stars, on the contrary I think most will be out of the league pretty soon. But given the sheer number of young players who have already shown flashes in the show, It seems much more likely to me than not that a few of them are gonna stick. And yes those computers are notorious for their negativity
This. Also, the sample size on some of the young players are extremely small. Carter, Castro (1003PA), Villar, Dominguez, Hoes/Grossman, Springer and whoever plays 1B (Singleton, Guzman, but not Wallace) all have less than 1000 PAs in the MLB. Wow. I understand projections and that they are using last year as a status quo, but you need a little more to make a fair assessment. I am not trying to say why I think they are wrong, but it just seems unfair to say "err'body gunna regress" when you don't have much to base it off of. And I will keep the smilies going
Can baseball season just start already? I can't wait! Even though the Astros are going through rough times I'll still root for them and go to their games. Things can only get better and I'm thankful for having a baseball team in the city of Houston. Can't wait to see Springer, Singleton and maybe Appel this year.
and with the 1-1 pick in the 2015 MLB draft, the Astros select John Holder, P, Mississippi State! (too early...) actually Jameis Winston from FSU could be a high pick if he focused on baseball, which he almost certainly won't do. interestingly enough, he's not even the best dual-sport football-baseball player to come from his hometown of 27,000 people...that title goes to Bo Jackson.
Winston isn't as good of a baseball player as he is a football player. They're not even sure how to best use him (utility guy, DH, or relief pitcher). He will be drafted... that's for sure... but he will end up in football one way or the other (see Drew Henson... who flamed out in both leagues).
A lot of his baseball flaws are perhaps fixable (though he seems to have poor instincts). He seems to get by on pure athletic ability.
As would most guys who play two sports. I just get the sense that he has a spot on the baseball team, but he's not all that integral to their plans... whereas Bo Jackson was the best baseball player at Auburn along with being the best football player at Auburn.
Or it gives the inside rout to Jaba the Hutt and Guzman. Singleton is already on the 40 man roster, so the only thing that matters is service time... but for somebody who really struggled a lot of last year, it would take a heroic spring to have him make the opening day roster (and if he's going to be on the roster, you might as well make him the everyday 1B).
As a 26 year old who was a highly regarded prospect, not sure why we should "expect" regression from last year. I mean maybe he will regress OR maybe he will get better. I don't see anything in his numbers that scream overproduction though
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>The folks at Bovada have the Astros finishing with the worst record in 2014. Their line is 62.5. I'd take the over on this. Would you?</p>— Jose de Jesus Ortiz (@OrtizKicks) <a href="https://twitter.com/OrtizKicks/statuses/438723664817582082">February 26, 2014</a></blockquote> <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
