I just wanted to share my predictions for how the offseason will turn out for the Rockets in terms of drafting and any possible trades. Draft: Unless Morey pulls off another somewhat fair rabbit trick hat, the chances of us moving up into the top 5 of the draft seems unlikely. As many assets as we have, they are fairly useless for teams with valued draft positions. The reason I say this is because the teams with top 5 picks are looking towards this draft to rebuild the team around those picks. Essentially, our assets are only useful for a team with a decided core and are surrounding that core with talented role players. The only chances that we have to move up, would be if we gave up Brooks, Lowry, or Scola. Players like Budinger or Hill simply do not interest any teams placed in prime positions. Since our biggest need currently is a legitimate big to backup our injury plagued Yao whose every season seems to be in jeopardy of ending with some foot injury, I am convinced that the Rockets will try to pick up someone like Monroe or Aldrich if either does manage to fall that far. There is a good chance that one of them will fall out of the top 10, because with the exception of Hornets to backup injury prone Okafor and Raptors as their only serviceable bigs are Bargnani and Nesterovic. However, I actually anticipate that Hornets will look to pick up a wingman like Xavier or Williams who look to develop as complementary off the ball role players. Either one of them, who play best when the defense's attention elsewhere, will benefit from the penetration and passing of Paul/Collinson and the attention that West and Okafor draws. The Raptors may look to improve their nonexistent defense by drafting a big, but outside of Cousins, none of the bigs in the draft are an immediate upgrade over their current big men. I anticipate them drafting a good PG to play behind Calderon who struggled greatly last season. If we don't get a chance to pick up either Monroe or Aldrich, I have a feeling that DM may roll the dice on Whiteside. He has the range extending to the 3 point line if he chooses to do so and, unlike our current shooting big/cannon fodder, has a mean nose for shot blocking. Additionally, he is very active on the offensive boards, a factor that can easily change the flow of the game. His FT% is a bit troublesome, but that is something that can be improved upon and I use Olajuwon as the perfect example; he averaged about 60% his rookie season. I feel like Whiteside is probably the best fit big from the draft to pair up with Lowry as he has the range to spread the D and allow Lowry to penetrate what would otherwise be a clogged up paint as well as help anchor our D when the opposing backcourt abuses Martin and Brooks at will. If anything else, it would be nice to see jumpers getting returned to sender as oppose to watching bigs shoot shots over Hayes. Free Agency: I honestly think that the FA is going to be relatively uneventful. While it is true that our assets are quite enticing, the only teams that may be interested in them are teams that have an established core and wants to build around it or a team that wants to dump off some malcontent player with baggage or declining talent with a bad contract. It is also important to point out that there are other teams that are in a better position for sign and trades than the Rockets, most specifically the Mavericks who look to be ready to blow up their team yet again. I know that we are all homers and see our players and team in rose colored lenses, but the truth is, there are a lot more teams that are more ready to win now and with the huge question mark next to Yao, while we have the potential to be contenders, it is still a huge gamble in comparison to other more stabilized teams. Simply put, our team has too many what if's to be a serious contender as a destination for any top FA in the sign and trade market and a complete non factor in the signing market. I have a feeling actually, that LBJ and Wade will both stay put, with Bosh joining either LBJ or Wade, although Cavs can offer much better returns. I anticipate that Joe Johnson and Boozer or Stoudamire will end up in New York since once the top 3 FA are off the table, Knicks will be the only team desperate enough to sign Johnson, Boozer, and Stoudamire more money than what they are worth, more specifically the max if not near the max salary. This will probably hurt our picks quite a bit as they would then project to be at the very least a playoff bubble team in a weak Eastern Conference. The ideal trade would be if we can somehow pry away Wallace from the Bobcats by trading Battier plus other assets as their team is going nowhere with it's current roster and could it's youth can definitely benefit from Battier's veteran leadership and intangibles. It is highly unlikely, but it can help them with their inevitable rebuilding. The same applies for Granger and though his recent injuries are of some concern, with a team that is banking all its egg in the Yao basket, would the Rockets care as much as other teams normally would? As either of those trades would most likely not happen, I wouldn't be surprised if our offseason ended with only the resigning of our FA and our draft picks. This is my outlook for the 2010 offseason, what do you guys think?
Rockets wont draft for need. Besides, Rockets need a starting center more than a backup. I really hope Morey does not draft a big.
I think even our GM Morey has little idea for the rockets outlook for the 2010 off-season, at this point every move for the rockets is a pure guess, there is not right or wrong predication.
Not much to argue with right now, in four days we'll know who the Rockets drafted. Don't think it'll be Whiteside though, lately his stock has been mirroring DeAndre Jordan's from two-three years ago.
