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[Pre-emptive muck mark crowing]: U.S. Government Invents New Way Of Calculating GDP

Discussion in 'BBS Hangout: Debate & Discussion' started by basso, May 23, 2013.

  1. basso

    basso Member
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    so, a month or two from now, when mark posts a new thread touting accelerating US GDP under Der O(ber)Fuhrer, you can reference this thread, and the further chicanery of the ancienne regime:

    http://seekingalpha.com/article/136...new-way-of-calculating-gdp?source=google_news

    --
    In March 2013, the U.S. government invented a new way of calculating GDP. The Financial Times reported that starting from July 2013, U.S. GDP would become 3% bigger due to a change in statistics. As this adjustment in GDP calculation is pretty significant, I will discuss the new items in the U.S. GDP, what the consequences are and how investors should act on this revision in statistics.

    GDP = private consumption + gross investment + government spending + (exports − imports), or



    The government made a significant change in the gross investment number (I), which now includes R&D spending, art, music, film royalties, books, theatre. This change in GDP statistics has not been implemented elsewhere in the world. So the U.S. is the first to accomplish this rewriting of the GDP number.

    Research and development (R&D) spending, which shouldn't even be accounted for as investment, adds a significant amount to the U.S. GDP number. It accounts for around 2% of U.S. GDP. Art, music, film royalties, books and theatre add another 0.5% to U.S. GDP. Another adjustment has been made to pension accounting. Previously, pension spending was included in GDP. After this adjustment however, we also look at the "promise" to pay out pensions. So we are talking about imaginary numbers that are now included in GDP. A last example is found in real estate. Commissions, legal bills and expenditures on real estate transactions are included in GDP as "investment." Obviously these expenditures aren't associated with real production.

    One of the consequences is that comparing the GDP number between other countries and the U.S. is not transparent anymore. It is like comparing apples and oranges. GDP should measure real production (like building a factory) and what the U.S. government added here is not real production. It is a measure of spending in the economy and there are items in the GDP number that don't add real value to the economy (like writing books).

    Second, while the GDP number gets inflated upwards, all macroeconomic indicators that are based on the GDP number will be adjusted with it. For example, the debt to GDP, which is at 105% now (Chart 1), will drop 3% just because of this adjustment to the GDP number. This fictitious drop in debt to GDP will highlight that the U.S. improved its debt load, while it did not. Another example is government spending as a percentage of GDP. By increasing the GDP number, we will get a lower government spending number, which allows the government to increase spending.
     
  2. KingCheetah

    KingCheetah Atomic Playboy
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    [​IMG]
     
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  3. adoo

    adoo Member

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    chicanery is when GBW decided not to count the cost of the iraq war against the budget deficit
     
  4. Classic

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    what the **** does that have to do with this?
     
  5. peleincubus

    peleincubus Member

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    Because both side manipulate the unemployment % and apparently the GDP to reflect what they want.

    Pretty obvious.
     
  6. droopy421

    droopy421 Member

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    Because if one side did something then everyone on the other can point fingers and say 'well you did it first!' instead of working towards a better solution.
     
  7. Mr. Clutch

    Mr. Clutch Member

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    What is there to debate?
     
  8. Realjad

    Realjad Member

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    We can debate whether Obama and his clan will spin it like there is some great turn around or if it will be spun to the media realistically. We can do that right now.

    or we can take this as a pre-emptive thread which will be used in a relevant debate discussion in a month or two and let it fall and be archived to be revived when relevant.

    We can also debate whether this thread is worthy, whether there is anything to debate at all and so on and so forth and ect..ect..ect.. ect..

    and if we can't debate anything, then fine we don't need too. We can just have a discussion about it and offer hypothesis regarding the upcoming governmental change in how they calculate GDP
     
    #8 Realjad, May 23, 2013
    Last edited: May 23, 2013
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  9. bobmarley

    bobmarley Member

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    Well said. Rep.
     
  10. aeolus13

    aeolus13 Member

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    You don't think books add real value? By putting ink to paper in an arrangement that allows it to store and transmit information, you create an object that is much more valuable to consumers that the cost of the raw materials alone. If anything, books are almost a perfect example of the kind of value-added activity economic statistics should try to capture.
     
  11. Cohete Rojo

    Cohete Rojo Member

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    Is there a reason you believe research and development is not an investment, and not a part of GDP?
     
  12. Dairy Ashford

    Dairy Ashford Member

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    Fortune 500 used to not include retail companies; then once they were recognized as drivers of production and credit, and accurate gauges of consumer demand, they were included. Not sure how this is any different, or at least not to the point of calling the black President a Nazi.
     
  13. lpbman

    lpbman Member

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    Democrats are going to sprain their arms patting themselves on the back for a change in accounting to the extent they can get away with it. This is just what a Republican would do.
     
  14. brantonli24

    brantonli24 Member

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    From the FT:

    http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/52d23fa6-aa98-11e2-bc0d-00144feabdc0.html#axzz2UCTWn2gz

    This is basically an accounting measure, and given how things like computer software wasn't included in GDP until 1999, I'd say updating the GDP to adjust to the current use of assets (intangible and tangible) is a good thing...until a politician messes up and mistakes a 3% increase as a 'growth', when in reality nothing has changed.
     
  15. Amiga

    Amiga Member

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    It's a good change. Plus they are going to go back and revise all previous numbers to reflect this new formula. No one except idiots would think the government will spin this as some major economic jump. Now I'm sure some individuals and politician will abuse it maybe even unknowingly
     
  16. FranchiseBlade

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    I don't know if a politician will mistake it for that, but they will definitely spin it as that.
     
  17. Northside Storm

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    Debating the finer points of GDP is like watching people fight over how ruffled the ears of a rotting, and decaying (say pigeon) carcass are.

    in any case, this is keeping up to line with the changes in our society. To keep investment merely fixated on fixed capital assets is ludicrous when pharma and software can achieve sky-high returns on R&D that very much involves more than the physical capital of ages past.

    in fact, this is a great change. R&D should be encouraged in any way possible, and if it's included in a measure of that dinosaur of a metric, maybe it will be.

    WAY too many problems with GDP. and if you want to debate a political whitewashing through GDP metrics, you'll question why America in the "Washington Consensus" age wanted to switch from GNP to GDP in the first place---Stiglitz brought up the insightful point that GNP tells the truth, which is that developing countries are basically, like the mercantilism of old, pouring their goods and resources to foreign owners.
     
  18. SamFisher

    SamFisher Member

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    Haha.

    Seekingalpha is the hoopsworld of economic analysis.


    No. This answer would give you an F on most university level economics exams.
     
  19. bucket

    bucket Member

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    basso,

    Inscrutable references to Nazis and the French monarchy aside, what mechanism exactly do you believe Obama can have used to exert political pressure on the Bureau of Economic Analysis? It's a pretty serious allegation that you're making.
     
  20. SamFisher

    SamFisher Member

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    He's an idiot copypasta-ing exceedingly dumb seeking alpha articles in order to infer a vasts conspiracy for a lazy friday trolling session...do you think he's at all fazed by your calling attention to the gravity of his statements? :confused:
     

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