It is no mystery that the Rockets are looking at power forwards this offseason. It's a welcome surprise to see them so active so quickly. The very fact that they've practically announced bringing players in for visits while they did everything possible to hide who they brought in for the draft signals that they are serious now. So far, there has been a lot of talk about four power forwards in particular. IMO, the Rockets have got to take a hard look at all four because chances are that at least 2 of them won't be available for the Rockets and they do not want to get Scott Borassed like the Astros did with Carlos Beltran. Be prepared and cover all angles. Here's my analysis of the four main contenders for next year's starting power forward gig with the Rockets in order of where I believe they are seeded in the Rockets thinking. 1. Stromile Swift Strengths: Strong rebounder and defensive presence. Young legs with tons of athleticism and strong upside potential. Weaknesses: Limited offensive game. Despite a number of years in the league, still unable to establish himself at the position. Some have criticized his work habits. Fit with the Rockets: Swift would immediately tandem with Juwan Howard (the more experienced and better offensive player) to form a significantly upgraded frontcourt. JVG would work him hard to turn him into a fierce rebounder and defender knowing that he already is on his way to that. The only concern is his lack of offensive skills and how that would effect the way teams double team Yao and T-Mac. Reasons he could end up here: Swift would have the chance to play for a LONG time with a pair of very young, immensely talented players. He could become part of a winning, potentially championship franchise. Reasons he could end up not here: Money. Swift is likely going to get bigger offers and the Grizzlies are unlikely to do sign-and-trade deals with teams in the western conference. Conclusion: He is likely the ideal choice of the Rockets, but he is probably out of their reach financially. 2. Antoine Walker Strengths: Solid rebounder, terrific passer and a well-developed offensive game. He can score in bunches and runs the floor like a smaller player with great handles. Not a high percentage shooter from long range, but hits big shots. Still young at 28. Weaknesses: Limited thus far defensively. Has the range and quickness to play defense but has shown a lack of work ethic. Considered a bit of a head case in some of his previous stops. Overly enamoured with shooting jumpers - especially three pointers. Fit with the Rockets: Walker would instantly become the third best player on the team and immediately impact the offensive side of the floor. He has great court vision for a big man and if he is willing to play for a little less, it would mean he has a sincere desire to win a title. JVG will have to push him defensively and limit his shots from the parking lot. Reasons he could end up here: All reports are that Walker wants to play for a winner. He is still under 30 and this represents a chance for him to play with a potential contender for years to come. Reasons he could end up not here: Money. Will the Rockets be willing to give him all of the MLE to get him in a uni and will he take less if they won't? That remains to be seen. Conclusion: Despite a lot of the worries over 'Toine's attitude, his seriousness to play for the Rockets indicates a willingness to sacrifice for winning. Some have suggested his exile to the ATL last year made him realize what he was missing and he came back to Boston a different player. Coming to Houston would mean he understands he is the third wheel to T-Mac and Yao because the Rockets don't beat around the bush on that. If he is willing to play for JVG, no doubt Van Gundy will tell him straight up that he better be willing to work hard every night, play strong defense, rebound like his life depended on it and quit chucking up three's. 3. Shareef Abdur Rahim Strengths: Solid overall game. Great rebounder and scorer in the post. Consumate team player with a great demeanor. Weaknesses: Criticized for his lack of winning. Has the tendency to be soft and get easily frustrated. Cannot carry a team on his own. Fit with the Rockets: Rahim might be the ideal TYPE of player for the Rockets at the four. His skills and attitude are perfect compliments for the current team and JVG's system. He would not rock the boat and do whatever was asked if it meant he could contend. Being third behind Yao and T-Mac would suit his low-key personality and take the pressure off him to carry the load. Reasons he could end up here: Rahim wants to win. He's tired of being stuck in places where he can't do it and where the criticism falls on his shoulders. Houston may appear to be the perfect fit keeping him out of the spotlight while giving him an opportunity to thrive with other better players. Reasons he could end up not here: Money. Rahim will likely command more than the MLE on the open market. Conclusion: As good a fit as he might be, it will be difficult to convince him to play here for the MLE. He would likely be higher on the Rockets' list if not for the belief he is financially out of reach. 4. Donyell Marshall Strengths: Great scorer from mid-range. Solid rebounder. Can play two positions. Unselfish with the basketball. Weaknesses: Not particularly athletic and already 32. Can drift on the floor a bit and is undersized defensively, particularly in the west against guys like Stoudamire, Duncan and Garnett. Fit with the Rockets: Marshall is a 'tweener. He has had several solid seasons but is probably not the ideal fit for the Rockets needs. He would improve them offensively and give them someone to get on the glass, but would he be that much of an upgrade over Howard? Reasons he could end up here: Cost. Marshall will likely take less than the full MLE to play for Houston and, with his age, probably won't demand a long-term deal. Reasons he could end up not here: Better options. The Rockets probably place Marshall fourth on the depth chart when it comes to choosing a power forward in free agency. Conclusion: If the Rockets end up with Marshall, it may only be because they struck out with some of the others. Marshall may make a better option as a third PF and back-up small forward than a starting four anyway. --- Despite the complaints about Walker and given the likelihood of the monetary demands of Swift and Rahim, he may be the best option available. His rep is likely as much a product of his environments as his personality. No doubt JVG will lay it on the line with him before a decision is made and if he chooses to sign here, it will be with all the cards on the table and with the understanding that he wants to win first and pad stats later. Swift is the ideal choice, but landing him for the MLE might not be possible and it is highly doubtful the Grizz would do a sign-and-trade with a rival. That seems very un-Jerry West-lik.
Jerry West is not even interested in trying to bring back swift and that doesn't say much. Walker of late should be the best choice for the Rox.
Great analysis Jeff. This is gonna be one of the more intersting summers we've had in a while. We are "close" to a championship and who we get this summer is gonna be very important to the process. It seems like money is gonna be the underlining issue (as in most cases). Swift and SAR will most likely be out of our range if we try to sign them straight up. All signs point that Walker is the only one out of the bunch that would take the MLE and that hasn't been officially said. I agree West wouldn't want to help out a rival, but we could make interesting partners: Wesley + James + Future 1st or 2nd for Swift seems like it would help both teams.
Good Analysis.....If Walker is willing to accept MLE money, I don't think we can pass that up. Depsite his weaknesses, I feel he is the best basketball player of the 4 players. And the rockets aren't so talented that they should just worry about "role" players around Yao and Tracy. I mean really, from last years' squad, who is truly the third best basketball player on this team? Mike James?? I like Walker's rebounding as well. None of the free agent power forwards are gonna provide much in the way of individual one-on-one defense. Walker will be 29 when the season starts. A five year contract will put him at 33 at the beginning of the last year of that deal, which isn't that old in today's NBA. With McGrady, Walker, and Yao, we will have the best frontcourt in basketball. I think the rockets feel the combo of James, Head, and possibly Spannoulis can be suffcient at PG as far as hitting 3's and playing good D. Then, shooting guard, remains the only true question mark with regard to the starting five.
Portland and Memphis both are motivated to do SnT's, with West or East teams, if they include moving pieces they want out, IMHO. This ensures expensive pick ups if dealing with either/both teams. Boston is apt to try the same. They won't be able to do that with Raef's 45mil, but perhaps Blount?
I didn't realize that Walker was only 28, seems like he's been around for much longer. I like his game because of the scoring pressure he can take off Mc and the rebounding pressure he can take off Yao. Three all-stars in our starting line-up could make us team to watch next season.
If I were a journalist and my topic even slightly dealt with the Houston Rockets, there would be three words that would instantly come to mind after reading that post... ...CUT AND PASTE!!! Great post Jeff!!! Really nice.... With Clutch's frontpage and Jeff's posts, no wonder why the national media skips Houston - their 'in-depth analysis' has already been done for them!!
Personally I do not understand the fascination with Swift. Last year, Houston was ranked (1 being the best, 30 being the worst): 3 in scoring defense 2 in defensive field goal percentage 8 in rebounding differential 16 in blocked shots and I think Houston was first in defending points in the paint (I heard this on the broadcasts, but can't find the numbers online). Houston is already an elite team on defense. It's not the area of most pressing need. Stromile would definitely help out on rebounding and blocked shots, but he's the weakest of the four power forward candidates offensively. Offensively, Houston was ranked: 20 in team scoring 20 in team field goal percentage Our offense needs help. We need a legitimate third scorer, and Stromile Swift is not it. Obviously none of these candidates are perfect. If they were, we couldn't afford them, and they wouldn't be available in the first place anyway. My personal ranking would be: 1) Walker - his passing and ball-handling are what I find most attractive. At 6'9" and mobile, he could make the post entry pass easily. I think we'd see an improvement in getting the ball to Yao in the deep post, and therefore Yao's efficiency. 2) Abdur-Rahim or Donyell Marshall. I like both of their offensive games. Shareef is younger and more efficient offensively, but Donyell blocks more shots, has an excellent 3-point shot, and pulls down a good amount of rebounds. Last) Swift. There are questions about his desire and toughness. From his own teammates, if I recall correctly.
i still don't understand our interests in antoine walker...he make poor shot selections, and does not rebound well...and barely plays defense......
So true Doc, but this place wouldn't be quite the same if it wasn't for your insider appearances! By the way, anything you care to share?
Is there something more than 'premonition' leading you to this list/order? Is there a 'plan' re: lux cap cuts?
If Walker is the guy that ends up here, I sure hope it's not a long contract. Maybe a 2 year deal with an option for a 3rd. I know it would be unlikely, he probably is looking for a deal at or close to max years, but it would be in the best interest of the Rockets to sign him to a shorter length. I've always hated Walker and always thought he was at least one of the top 3 over-rated players in the league but, if they sign him, I will trust the organization's judgement on this one. Swift would definitely add much needed athletic ability and speed to the team, but I worry, if he couldn't find more playing time in Memphis with Gasol and Wright ahead of him (neither known for thier defense or rebounding), how productive would he be here? But, maybe JVG can tap into that potential like he did with Cato. SAR & Marshall are nice players but, outside of some athletic ability, they don't seem to bring enough versatility complimenting Howard. Would definitely add more quality depth though. Personally, I don't see the perfect answer available to them this offseason, so I would be happy just to bring someone in just to split time with Howard that could bring toughness and rebounding. Maybe a Gadzuric or a Fortson-esque type of guy. I just don't want them spending too many assets (money or trade pieces) for someone who will more than likely not be THE guy that will be the perfect fit and be here for years to come.
The more I consider the free agency possibilities the more I am becoming convinced we will be able to get no one who will be able to make much of an impact. In regards to the 4, only Marshall seems a real possibility and that only upgrades the backup position marginally and does nothing in regards to addressing the need of getting younger. Of course, there are still the more pressing issues (imho) of upgrading the point and shooting guard positions and unless some unforseen miracle trades can be arranged, my hopes for the Rockets getting significantly better in the off season are dwindling. Still, JVG and Dawson indicate that at least one bold is in the making. No doubt that will have to be thru trade, and as much as I desire they do SOMETHING, I have yet to see an indication that anything really POSITIVE is possible. I really hope I'm wrong.
I'm a bit suprised by Clutch's report and he might consider updating it considering the latest news. http://www.clutchfans.com/news.cfm?NewsID=1215 Walker certainly appears to be interested in coming here for the MLE: http://celtics.bostonherald.com/celtics/view.bg?articleid=92385 Also Walker is now doing what it takes to win. Before Leaving the Celt's, 37% of AW shots where 3 pointers and after leaving only 27% of his shots are 3's while still maintaining a 19+ ppg average.
Signing Walker to a 4 or 5 year deal at the MLE won't be bad at all because even in the worst case scenerio it will be easy to trade Walker. Swift on the otherhand has to live up to his potential or there will be very few who want him. Not even Memphis wants him right now.
The more I look at the available power forwards, the more I think we should just spend our MLE on a shooting guard. It seems to be a far deeper position in free agency this year.
Geez dude, it's only the 2nd day of free agency. Take a deep breath and relax. Though we got a good chunk of news (regarding possible free agent targets/signees), I'm sure we are only getting a fraction of what is all going on behind closed doors. Remember, the articles that have been published recently, all indicate that it's those players who are interested which led to talks with the team. So, this info is blatantly coming from the agents and not the Rockets. CD & co. maybe talked with these guys, but it doesn't mean that it is necessarily THE direction they are going. All is not lost already and I do believe they have a few good things up thier sleeves that should get us excited about heading into next season.
I hope you are right mogrod, and am inclined to trust your opinion on this more than my own. I will openly admit that I'm gripping as I look over our FA possibilities and trade limitations. I'll probably go start a music thread now
I wouldn't count on that. Him not really caring about scheduling visits is a signal to me that he is willing to go to the highest bidder. And I've never heard of him willing to take any kind of discount. Dude is a mercenary. If age weren't a factor, however, I'd target him above all else. He has all the best overall qualities we want from the pf position. Solid d, weakside helper, good rebounder, dependable jumper(with range to boot). He'd fit in w/o missing a beat. He'd struggle with his man-up d on the elite pfs, but so would everyone else available to the rox, so I don't consider that much of an issue. But, he is nearing the end of his playing days, so I would much rather go after someone who could give us a solid 3-5 years if possible.
Would anyone happen to have a list of free agent power forwards for next year? Quiet frankly, no one on this year's list is the ideal fit for this Rockets team. If a better fit comes along next year, would it not benefit the Rockets to wait out 1 year?....and use the MLE this year on one of the many SG available?
