This is crazy. If it weren't for Katrina, people in Houston wouldn't have panicked and jumped the gun. My sister lived through Hugo several years ago. A tree fell through her roof in Winston-Salem, NC. Though she no longer lives in NC, she followed the developments of Ophelia very closely last week. People in the outer banks, who supposedly NEVER evacuate, left out of fear of Ophelia. Hence the term she created, Post-Katrina Syndrome. My sister is also a psychologist who always analyzes everything/everybody. We both laughed on the phone earlier today when I told her how people here were reacting. Post-Katrina Syndrome is epidemic in Houston. I'm not speaking of Galveston and other coastal areas that would be subject to a storm surge. I'm talking about the 50% of Houston residents who decided to bail even though they weren't even told to evacuate. To think millions of people can act as an irrational heard so easily is very discouraging to me (and I'm a pessimist about human nature). Even my wife fell for it, though she and her family turned around and came back home after sitting in traffic for 8 hours. My plan was to leave late today or early Friday if conditions merited. Without Katrina, people in Houston would have behaved rationally. With Post-Katrina Syndrome, we have a royal mess. Next time we have a true hurricane threat to the city, I hope this false alarmism doesn't cause people to stay put when they should react. If you evacuated (or tried to and gave up), please don't take this personally; I'm just venting a bit.
I kind of agree with you except for one part. This was the 3rd strongest storm ever recorded in the Atlantic. Always better to be safe than sorry. My family stayed in Houston but I don't for one second blame anyone who decided to leave. Why take chances with anything of this size?
I live in Sugar Land, and stayed through the last Category 5 Hurricane to hit the US-- Hurricane ANDREW in Miami Florida. I too am amazed by the hysteria that people are going through. I completely understand if you are in Galveston or any of the mandatory evacuation zones --the need to leave ASAP. What I don't understand is many of the people far out of harms way leaving and going through hell right now. It is important that everyone be rational, some people are putting themselves through more misery out on the roads now than the actual storm itself would cost them-- it should never be that way. I Figure I went through Hurricane Andrew, I can handle this-- Sugar Land isn't prone to flooding at all, and the storm winds will not be Cat 4 when it hits here- as long as we stay away from windows and move dangerous objects outside we all will be fine. In fact most of my neighbors seem to be staying , and going on with normal activities.
It was the 3rd strongest ever recorded when it was 72 hours away from us! As one weatherguy explained it: When a hurricane reaches Cat.5 strength, it's like a runner when he is sprinting at full speed. He can't keep it up very long and it's pretty much all downhill from there. Yesterday, I actually told a couple of people at my job it was GOOD that Rita was reaching such strength so far away, because that guaranteed it was peaking way before hitting landfall. But your comment makes a good point. That well publicized statement about Rita being the 3rd strongest ever recorded may have been the key to opening the floodgates of mass hysteria. While it was a fact, it should have been followed up with a comment on how it's impossible/unlikely to maintain that kind of strength for 3 days.
this storm is VERY likely going to flood houston and cause millions if not billions of dollars worth of damage. i can't blame people for not wanting to DIE. look at the thousands of people dead in new orleans. i don't see how you can laugh at people who are trying to stay alive.
Laughing at people trying to stay alive? You missed my point entirely. People in the evac areas had to leave. My point is it's too bad people in Houston panicked and caused them to get stuck in traffic for almost 24 hours just to get through Houston. Why did it take the Galveston family from 6:30 p.m. yesterday until 2:00 p.m. today just to get to 290 & Tidwell? People in Houston who DID NOT need to evacuate jammed up the roads. Like I said earlier, next time when the wolf really shows up, many people won't leave because of what's happening now. That's what isn't funny at all. Those of you from coastal and other evac areas, I really am sorry Houstonians made it so hard on you. Again, to anyone, please don't be offended if you vacated unnecessarily. I'm venting.
I'm leaving because it sooo hot when the A/C goes off. But I plan to do my evacuee trek at night. Driving around my neighboorhood looking down on those families frying in their cars on Beltway 8 this afternoon was bizzare.
It's not the flood people are worrying about, it's the strong wind which could blow the entire house down that frightens people. And since hurricanes are so unpredictable, there is no telling where the eye is going to be. The graph from this morning was showing Sugar Land getting a direct hit. I don't know about you, but I wouldn't want to take that chance by staying.
My parents suffer from Post-Allison syndrome. They are more worried about flooding then from wind. They've been through Carla and Alicia, but it was Allison that did damage to their home.
You know pictures are worth a thousand words and the general public has been watching 3 weeks of death and destruction. You can't really argue rationality vs. self-preservation in the face of that, especially families with children. Preserving their children's welfare is an evolutionary imperative.
One thing I think has been handled very poorly is the discussion of wind and flooding. When forecasters discuss wind speed, flooding, etc., they almost exclusively focus on the area hit directly by the eyewall right on the coastline. As a result, they fail to mention to folks that living north of Houston means you'll probably be just fine at home even in a cat 4 storm assuming you don't flood and aren't in the flood plain. Local forecasters have been better about giving estimates on different areas of town and I know they have to be very careful and not give people a false sense of safety, but constantly describing 20' walls of water, massive flooding, homes blown over when that is all expected right at the coastal impact area seems like a major sin of omission. By the way, I had a friend who worked for KTRH. The station manager at the time (still with the station) told reporters that their job wasn't to report the news, but to "scare people." He seriously said that.
The guys on Ch.2 & Ch.11 did a very good job of this in the morning. They didn't just focus on the coastal areas. Both said clearly that wind was the primary issue for Houston and both gave estimates, about every hour, on winds speeds for various parts of town. Their wind estimates were the reason I decided to stay.
I wonder how it is going to be in Clear Lake. That area usually doesn't flood and I've never heard of Clear Lake surging. I think the biggest problem will be the winds as well. Other than Galveston Island and the other coastal areas who are in possibly huge trouble, I think this city has hit a remarkable zone of panic. It's surreal.
Even with the forecasts from yesterday and a few days ago, Sugar Land was shown to be in its path, but the winds would not be near Cat 4 or 5 strength by the time it got here. Me and many people in the neighborhood never feared the risk of having our house blow down-- if that was a legitimate risk Sugar Land would have got a mandatory evacuation issued. Just remember we are not that close to the coast. And having gone through Andrew in a location closer to the coast, I feel safe that I don't need to worry about my house flying away But if people are afraid that is going to happen, by all means they can leave. We just think their fears are unfounded.
It don't have to be a cat 4 or cat 5 to make a major damage, 70mph wind is enough to blown down a house. New Orlean didn't have a mandatory evacuation, and look what happpened. By staying, you are gambling with your life, and many people, myself included, don't think that's a good idea.
That's what I am worried about more then anything. I was concerned about the eye going right over Houston like Alicia if Rita hit as a Cat. 5, but now that doesn't seem to be the case. The situation with Rita stalling and back tracking over Houston is scarier then the land fall now, since land fall for the eye is likely to be east of Galveston. The wobbling of the storm though makes this one hard to predict. Classic hurricane, doesn't know where it wants to go. I haven't got anything done at work this week. I am too busy surfing the net and worrying about my parents and my sisters family. There are some advantages to living in the desert of Arizona. No hurricanes, no tornados.
