No surprise considering the country is split 50/50. http://aolsvc.news.aol.com/elections/article.adp?id=20040801172509990008 Post-Convention Polls Mixed on Kerry Bounce WASHINGTON (Aug. 1) - New polls gave a mixed picture on whether Democratic presidential nominee Sen. John Kerry got a "bounce" from the party's convention, and a CNN-USA Today Gallup poll on Sunday even showed the Democratic ticket trailing the Republicans' among likely voters. But a Newsweek poll released on Saturday said Kerry gained a four-point boost in the polls from the Democratic National Convention held last week in Boston. Kerry had been hoping for a measurable surge in public approval, known as a bounce, which sometimes has given nominees a double-digit boost in the polls following their four days in the spotlight at the convention. Democrats this year have said the closely divided electorate and relatively small number of undecided voters made a big bounce unlikely. The CNN-USA Today poll of about 1,000 respondents conducted on Friday and on Saturday showed President Bush garnering 50 percent to 47 percent for Kerry among likely voters. Bush trailed Kerry among likely voters earlier in July, 47 percent to 49 percent. Independent candidate Ralph Nader garnered 2 percent. In the Newsweek poll conducted on Thursday and on Friday, Kerry received 49 percent of the vote to Bush's 42 percent and 3 percent for independent candidate Nader. In early July, Kerry led Bush 47 percent to 44 percent, with Nader at 3 percent. Without Nader in the race, Kerry led Bush in the new poll by 51 percent to 45 percent. The poll of about 1,000 registered voters had a 3 percent margin of error. Either way, Kerry said he wasn't paying attention. Appearing on "Fox News Sunday" with his running mate, Sen. John Edwards, he said he remembered the polls last year that showed his presidential bid staggering. "Polls are not what's important. What's important is what we're going to do for America," Kerry said. "I don't read polls. I really don't. They are going to go up and down. They're going to change," he added. But a senior Kerry adviser was dismissive of CNN-USA Today poll's finding, saying it appeared to be an aberration. He cited the Newsweek poll that did show a bounce, with Kerry's image improving and a weakening in Bush's approval ratings. "The CNN-USA Today poll does show that the race continues to be close, which everyone expected, and shows Kerry being increasingly trusted by voters on key issues," he said. "The poll does show a 'bump' for Kerry on trust on the issues and while Bush is stagnant or slipping on the economy, Iraq and terrorism, Kerry moved up during convention week." Conventions are often the first time the general public tunes into a presidential race, and polls have shown many Americans are still unfamiliar with Kerry, a four-term U.S. senator, decorated Vietnam War veteran and former prosecutor. The CNN/USA Today Gallup poll had a margin of error of 4 percentage points. Among registered voters, Kerry received 50 percent to 47 percent for Bush. That compared with 49 percent for Kerry and 45 percent for Bush earlier in the month. (With additional reporting by Patricia Wilson)
well, in this poll Kerry's way ahead! -- The New York Times August 1, 2004 POLITICAL POINTS Finding Biases on the Bus By JOHN TIERNEY AS John Kerry celebrates his nomination with a coast-to-coast bus trip (this may be the first time the word "celebrates" has appeared so close to "coast-to-coast bus trip") conservatives are complaining about his good press. They say that journalists' liberal bias has colored the reviews of the Democratic convention and his speech. But do journalists really want John Kerry to defeat George W. Bush? It depends where they work and how you ask the question, at least according to the unscientific survey we conducted last weekend during a press party at the convention. We got anonymous answers from 153 journalists, about a third of them based in Washington. When asked who would be a better president, the journalists from outside the Beltway picked Mr. Kerry 3 to 1, and the ones from Washington favored him 12 to 1. Those results jibe with previous surveys over the past two decades showing that journalists tend to be Democrats, especially the ones based in Washington. Some surveys have found that more than 80 percent of the Beltway press corps votes Democratic. But political ideology isn't the only possible bias. Journalists also have a professional bias: they need good stories to make the front page and get on the air. So we asked our respondents which administration they'd prefer to cover the next four years strictly from a journalistic standpoint. We expected the Washington journalists to strongly prefer Mr. Kerry, partly because they complain so much about the difficulty of getting leaks from the Bush White House, but mainly because any change in administration means lots of news. Sure enough, the Washington respondents said they would rather cover Mr. Kerry, but by a fairly small amount, 27 to 21, and the other journalists picked Bush, 56 to 40. (A few others had no opinion.) The overall result was 77 for Bush, 67 for Mr. Kerry. Why stick with the Bush administration? "You can't ask for a richer cast of characters to cover," one Washington correspondent said. "Kerry will be a bore after these guys." Since presidential relatives are such a rich source of embarrassing stories, we asked the journalists to predict which ones would make the most interesting news. The clear favorites were the Bush twin daughters, Jenna and Barbara, probably because of their proven track record (brushes with the authorities over under-age drinking). They got 74 votes. Teresa Heinz Kerry was next, with 39. Liberals complained in 2000 that Mr. Bush got off easy because he was better than Al Gore at charming reporters. So we tried to test for a likeability bias. With which presidential nominee, we asked, would you rather be stranded on a desert island? Mr. Kerry was the choice of both groups: 31 to 17 among the Washington journalists, and 51 to 39 among the others. "Bush's religious streak,'' one Florida correspondent said, "would drive me nuts on a desert island."
The slide has begun Ascension has now ended The Prez shall remain All along I said That Bush would distance himself And this has started
i won't post in haiku...but i tend to agree. of course, we'll get a better picture after the republican convention. if bush gets a bounce, this thing may be over quickly. we'll see.
You have said it all along, starting at about the time you started smoking crack. Bush has spent hundreds of millions of dollars trying to cut into Kerry's lead and still hasn't caught up; and now Kerry can match him dollar wise. I know this may be hard for you to believe, but there are a lot of people outside Texas (such as the majority who voted against Bush last time, before he did his damage), who feel the opposite. That alone will ensure that the race will be close.
If Kerry did not get much of a bounce I'm pretty sure Bush won't get one either. That's just the nature of this election...
sam.. well Kerry has to make his 75 mil last 3 months.. bush has to make it last 2 months.. if I understand the election money thing... So I'd expect com crunch time bush is the one with the good campaign ads etc coming out... seems like the democrats wouldn't have scheduled the convention so early...
RF, my point is if the first 100,000 negative ads that Bush has run still leave hiim behind, then the next 50,000 aren't going to have much of a marginal impact. Even if they did, the race would still be close given the nature of the electorate and the small amount of undecideds. Similarly, the size of Bush's war chest advantage is a lot smaller than people were predicting (a lot of his donors have maxed out already at the 2k limit) just 6 months ago. Predicting that the race is going to be a Bush landslide, as Chance has, is pure folly, as would it be to predict a Kerry landslide.
sam... yeah I don't expect it to be a landslide.. I wonder if Kerry could get his "convention bounce" after bush's convention.. . some of those 10% undecided may be waiting to see bush's convention too.. It should be close.. I wonder how long we will have to wait on election night before stations start saying who won... after the last time I'd think they'd be a little more careful
Only the same delusional people who thought that invading Iraq was going to make the US safer think that Bush's lagging behind Kerry is a positive sign.
Of course, experts were saying before the convention that due to the unprecedented divide in this country that any Kerry bounce would be limited. This is not surprising nor worrisome.
This is what I hate about politics. What a load of horse****. When I read politicians saying crap like that - and they ALL say it - I just want to puke. They sound more like used car salesmen than leaders.
couldn't agree more. "polls don't matter. shoot, we don't care if everyone hates us. we're not out to actually win. we just want to make America better." i'm betting they don't say that at fundraisers when they're trying to get people to throw big bucks in their coffers.
They ARE more like used car salesmen than leaders. Actually, the workers that politicians resemble the most are prostitutes. Politicians are only interested in money, and they will screw you in a thousand different ways.
