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Playing on Zero Days Rest – The Rockets Greatest Weakness Last Season

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by jtr, Sep 5, 2013.

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  1. jtr

    jtr Member

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    The dog days of September. As a Rockets fan, it is a time when I like to go back and analyze where Houston needs improvement next season. And so I decided to look at last seasons performance as a function of days of rest. I started with stats.nba.com and examined the information. One thing that stood out was the Rockets miserable performance in back to backs.

    <a href="https://picasaweb.google.com/lh/photo/1xGi3k4Nq1kEe_hRJEtxYgKrTzNSDSqpsJXCRBkvE-k?feat=embedwebsite"><img src="https://lh4.googleusercontent.com/-xA0lbwtoyMk/UijyCbbisEI/AAAAAAAAAOk/YVrB6sdb-eg/s640/NBAStats-1.jpg" height="91" width="640" /></a>

    Looking at the Rockets 2012-2013 record with zero days rest was eye opening. They won 28.6% of the time. Of course I jumped to the obvious conclusion that Asik was dogging it on the back end of back to backs. Delving deeper it became obvious that I was completely wrong.

    <a href="https://picasaweb.google.com/lh/photo/GizBc8Idn6KEBVF5gnDOqO3-vOQGjf7goX6zZroEI5s?feat=embedwebsite"><img src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-HlsGIPHwjeY/UijW5m-MmHI/AAAAAAAAAOU/mKiF-qQe1SA/s400/Google%2520Code%2520Playground%2520-%2520Mozilla%2520Firefox%2520952013%252030219%2520PM.jpg" height="263" width="400" /></a>

    In the above graph zero days off is the baseline. What you see is that Asik's FG% actually decreases as he has more days off. I find it interesting that it is the wing players who suffer the most when playing a back to back. Who is affected most by the back to back? Looks like Lin, but Harden and Parsons are not far behind.

    So how do the Rockets compare with the elite teams of the NBA when playing on zero days rest?

    <a href="https://picasaweb.google.com/lh/photo/okqaO4qe9KLkJPoy96DM3e3-vOQGjf7goX6zZroEI5s?feat=embedwebsite"><img src="https://lh4.googleusercontent.com/-UiuLqqGFPhc/Uij6b6NcqPI/AAAAAAAAAO0/GBPyYuEWnIE/s400/Google%2520Code%2520Playground%2520-%2520Mozilla%2520Firefox%2520952013%252054025%2520PM.jpg" height="264" width="400" /></a>

    Well, that is a discouraging graph. So how can the Rockets improve their miserable 6-15 record when playing with zero days rest? I believe that the key lies in limiting the minutes of the Rockets wings on the front end of the back to back. So the 2013-2014 season brings:

    • The Rockets will have three fewer back to backs next season compared to the 21 from 2012-2013 season.
    • The Rockets should build significant leads over their opponents more often next season. This should allow them to rest their wings more.
    • Hopefully Bev, Casspi, Garcia etc. will provide quality minutes so that the starting Rockets can play less minutes.
    • With the addition of Howard the Rockets will not be pressured nearly as hard as when they had to play without Asik on the floor last season.

    List of back to back games

    APR 01, 2013 - HOU vs. ORL W
    APR 15, 2013 - HOU @ PHX L
    APR 06, 2013 - HOU @ DEN L
    MAR 30, 2013 - HOU vs. LAC W
    MAR 09, 2013 - HOU @ PHX L
    FEB 23, 2013 - HOU @ WAS L
    FEB 13, 2013 - HOU @ LAC L
    FEB 06, 2013 - HOU @ MIA L
    JAN 26, 2013 - HOU vs. BKN W
    JAN 19, 2013 - HOU @ MIN L
    JAN 16, 2013 - HOU @ DAL L
    JAN 12, 2013 - HOU @ PHI L
    JAN 09, 2013 - HOU @ NOH L
    JAN 05, 2013 - HOU @ CLE W
    DEC 29, 2012 - HOU vs. OKC L
    DEC 26, 2012 - HOU @ MIN W
    DEC 17, 2012 - HOU @ NYK W
    DEC 08, 2012 - HOU vs. DAL L
    NOV 28, 2012 - HOU @ OKC L
    NOV 19, 2012 - HOU @ UTA L
    NOV 03, 2012 - HOU vs. POR L

    The one thing that strikes me here is how could the Rockets only have 6 home games in back to backs versus 15 away games? Seems to mirror their 6-15 record.

    The following table rates the entire WC on the change between the average FG% and the FG% with 0 days rest.

    <a href="https://picasaweb.google.com/lh/photo/JKqW0V6PHd7o18qVXlyZrom-xKLOdCQV490zyCR4_p4?feat=embedwebsite"><img src="https://lh4.googleusercontent.com/-HooTQAhAgLc/UiphvbUkCYI/AAAAAAAAAPw/XP6sYAOmZIY/s800/Untitled%25201%2520-%2520OpenOffice.org%2520Calc%2520962013%252071336%2520PM.jpg" height="275" width="537" /></a>

    The Rockets have the highest drop off of any team in the WC. Also their win % on the back to back is the second lowest in the WC. I do believe that Morey is eying this because it certainly deserves attention.
     
    #1 jtr, Sep 5, 2013
    Last edited: Sep 6, 2013
  2. daywalker02

    daywalker02 Member

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    that and we could not close out the remaining 5-6 games in style 2 years in a row
     
    #2 daywalker02, Sep 5, 2013
  3. mylilpony

    mylilpony Member

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    One word. Covington.
     
    #3 mylilpony, Sep 5, 2013
  4. lfw

    lfw Rookie

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    I'm sure fatigue is a factor but I also think the roster's lack of experience last year contributed to their poor performance in back-to-backs. There is barely any time for the coaching staff to implement a game plan on the 2nd game of a back-to-back and less time to prepare a very young team to execute the game plan. I think this affected the team more on the defensive end than the offensive end last year because at least on offense it was mostly read and react style being played anyways.
     
    #4 lfw, Sep 5, 2013
  5. Carl Herrera

    Carl Herrera Member

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    How do the Rockets compare to other 45-ish win teams on 0 days rest. Each of the "elite" teams you used for comparison had signficantly better records than HOU did overall so it is logical that they also do better in a specific situation.

    Also, how often HOU and other teams faced rested teams when they are on 0 days rest is an important factor to consider.
     
    #5 Carl Herrera, Sep 5, 2013
  6. SuperKev

    SuperKev Member

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    I think WHO you face in a back to back is has far more effect than 0 days rest. Also it's important how far they had to travel to get to the destination. This is more an indictment of the Rockets schedule than any scientific analysis of their performance with 0 days rest. To provide a useful calculation of this type would be extremely difficult.
     
    #6 SuperKev, Sep 5, 2013
  7. sleepyazn

    sleepyazn Member

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    Well there was also the fact our starting unit wasn't exactly used to starting. Nobody was a starter and besides Harden didn't play even close to starter minutes.
     
    #7 sleepyazn, Sep 5, 2013
  8. bmd

    bmd Member

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    That is something that was amazing about this past year.

    Almost nobody was a true when the season started.

    It was basically a team made out of back-ups.
     
    #8 bmd, Sep 5, 2013
  9. jtr

    jtr Member

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    I added a list of back to back games and the results. Seems like there is no pattern to analyze there. Basically the Rockets were just bad in back to back games last season.

    APR 01, 2013 - HOU vs. ORL W
    APR 15, 2013 - HOU @ PHX L
    APR 06, 2013 - HOU @ DEN L
    MAR 30, 2013 - HOU vs. LAC W
    MAR 09, 2013 - HOU @ PHX L
    FEB 23, 2013 - HOU @ WAS L
    FEB 13, 2013 - HOU @ LAC L
    FEB 06, 2013 - HOU @ MIA L
    JAN 26, 2013 - HOU vs. BKN W
    JAN 19, 2013 - HOU @ MIN L
    JAN 16, 2013 - HOU @ DAL L
    JAN 12, 2013 - HOU @ PHI L
    JAN 09, 2013 - HOU @ NOH L
    JAN 05, 2013 - HOU @ CLE W
    DEC 29, 2012 - HOU vs. OKC L
    DEC 26, 2012 - HOU @ MIN W
    DEC 17, 2012 - HOU @ NYK W
    DEC 08, 2012 - HOU vs. DAL L
    NOV 28, 2012 - HOU @ OKC L
    NOV 19, 2012 - HOU @ UTA L
    NOV 03, 2012 - HOU vs. POR L
     
    #9 jtr, Sep 5, 2013
  10. Sweet Lou 4 2

    Sweet Lou 4 2 Member

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    I wouldn't read too much into this. We didn't have a deep bench and so our guys playing a lot of minutes naturally they will be more fatigued plus it's a young team.

    It should be fine as we improve and deepen the team. This is why you need a deep bench in the NBA - more for the regular season.
     
    #10 Sweet Lou 4 2, Sep 5, 2013
  11. choujie

    choujie Member

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    6 home games and 15 road games played a big role there.
     
    #11 choujie, Sep 5, 2013
  12. jtr

    jtr Member

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    Honestly Lou I could not agree with you more.
     
    #12 jtr, Sep 5, 2013
  13. rogower

    rogower Member

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    You have compared last year's Rockets teams only with other elite teams. How about a comparison to all teams? My hunch is that it is pretty typical for all non-championship contenders to struggle on zero days rest.
     
    #13 rogower, Sep 5, 2013
  14. hardenisaboss

    hardenisaboss Member

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    which makes this team even more special haha. You're right most of our players were usually back ups. Even Harden our star player was a 6th man
     
    #14 hardenisaboss, Sep 5, 2013
  15. sleepyazn

    sleepyazn Member

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    JAN 26, 2013 - HOU vs. BKN W
    JAN 19, 2013 - HOU @ MIN L
    JAN 16, 2013 - HOU @ DAL L
    JAN 12, 2013 - HOU @ PHI L
    JAN 09, 2013 - HOU @ NOH L
    JAN 05, 2013 - HOU @ CLE W

    I remember this month, it was freaking hell. Multiple 4 games in 5 nights weeks. Rockets went on epic losing streak. Just so painful to think about.
     
    #15 sleepyazn, Sep 5, 2013
  16. jtr

    jtr Member

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    Good point but it is after midnight here sir. Tomorrow?
     
    #16 jtr, Sep 5, 2013
  17. alethios

    alethios Member

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    For a really young and relatively inexperienced team, I'm not surprised.
     
    #17 alethios, Sep 6, 2013
  18. luckytxn

    luckytxn Member

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    Lol


    What are the stats for the PF last year in back to backs? If I remember right they were the problem a lot last year. We were weak last year at the 4 spot and we haven't improved at that spot except if maybe Howard takes it. Maybe if the 4 spot is taken care of the back to backs win loss would be reversed. That was our main weakness.
     
    #18 luckytxn, Sep 6, 2013
  19. luckytxn

    luckytxn Member

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    Lol

    Really? Harden's average was 38.3 MPG last year. The NBA average for all starters was also 38.3 MPG last year.
     
    #19 luckytxn, Sep 6, 2013
  20. Hrock

    Hrock Rookie

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    I remember reading this during Morey's ama on reddit. The user also mentioned he posted this on clutchfans. Figured it shows the same thing.

    [​IMG]


    Links dont work cuz I made it an image, but I put the main link below.

    http://imgur.com/a/4x9DH
     
    #20 Hrock, Sep 6, 2013
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