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Player Effectiveness Rating

Discussion in 'BBS Hangout' started by B, Oct 17, 2001.

  1. B

    B Member

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    Hey everyone, I could use some help figuring this out. I've always been found of the QB rating stat, and I've been trying to come up with ways to apply it to basketball. Each position requires different skills for that player to be considered effective. By weighing the different stats differently for each position I'd like to come up with a way that a great game for a player would give them a rating around 100. And perhaps set it up to include minutes played, so I could rate bench players about the same way. Here is what I've come up with so far.

    A average great for a point guard (IMO)
    15 pts
    FG% 45
    1 3ptrM
    3 TPA
    4 FTA
    5 FTM
    1 OReb
    3 TReb
    9 Ast
    2 TO
    4 ST
    0 BL

    Using this formula
    PG: Points * (0.55 + FG%) + 3ptrM * 4 - (TPA - TPM) * 2 + (FTA *FT%) * 3 + Oreb * 2 + TReb + Ast * 5 - (TO - 2) * 5 + ST *7 + BL *3

    The PG would net a 97 rating.
    So each position is slightly modified to take into account which area they should be specializing in.

    SG: Points * (0.54 + FG%) + 3ptrM * 5 - (TPA - TPM) * 2 + (FTA *FT%) * 3 + Oreb * 3 + TReb + Ast * 4 - (TO - 1) * 5 + ST * 6 + BL * 4

    SF: Points * (0.53 + FG%) + 3ptrM * 5 - (TPA - TPM) * 2 + (FTA * (FT% + .05)) * 3 + Oreb * 4 + TReb * 1.25 + Ast * 4 - (TO - 1) * 5 + ST * 5 + BL * 5

    PF: Points * (0.54 + FG%) + 3ptrM * 5 - (TPA - TPM) * 2 + (FTA *FT%) * 3 + Oreb * 5 + TReb * 1.5+ Ast * 3 - (TO - .75) * 5 + ST * 4 + BL * 6

    C: Points * (0.54 + FG%) + 3ptrM * 5 - (TPA - TPM) * 2 + (FTA *FT%) * 3 + Oreb * 6 + TReb * 1.75 + Ast * 2 - (TO - .5) * 5 + ST * 3 + BL * 7

    This needs a lot of work, but I think it's a good starting point. If I can nail this system down, I'd like to make a fantasy league based on this, so you have draft players that play their position well, and not just a player that will help you out in certain categories.

    If you have any ideas for how to improve this, let me know. Right now I'm looking at MVP seasons for different positions and pluging in what the rating would be.

    Thanks,

    B
     
  2. haven

    haven Member

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    Players are becoming increasingly versatile in the NBA, and that versatility is valuable in itself. Take Griffin. He can block shots well. Is his ability less important due to his position? I think one could argue that it's an even greater asset because it isn't common to his position.

    What about a center who can pass? According to your system, an assist from a good passing center is worth exactly 2/5 of that of a PG. This seems a mistake to me. After all, a good passing C may have a substantially better APG ratio, but the number might still be small, numerically. Said player is perhaps not being adequately rewarded by your system, which rewards players in a vacuum, rather than for their value above position.

    In baseball, I'm generally a fan of sabermetrics. I think that basically everything in the sport is quantified, recorded, and made into a stat in some form. Therefore, you get all sorts of nifty statistics like VORP, RC/27, range factor, etc... which can nearly perfectly quantify a player's contribution to a given team. You can even "prove" the accuracy of these stats by working the equation in reverse - actual wins correllate with expected wins on the basis of production.

    In basketball, I'm not so sure this is possible. There are simply too many things that aren't quantified, and that one would have trouble quantified. An attempt to arrive at a player rating in basketball would have to include stats that currently aren't in wide use. Hakeem's block #'s declined in his late-prime. But is that because he became less of a shotblocker, or because he was so intimidating? How do you meansure intimidation statistically? In baseball, you get a walk. We know Barry Bonds was devastating simply through the intimidation factor because he drew a record # of walks.

    In basketball, how many shots did Hakeem change? How many times did penetrators rely on a jump shot instead of charging the lane because they knew the Dream was there? We'll never know.

    How many points would Chucky Brown have scored in 1995 if Clyde Drexler hadn't played on the same team? Or what about Steve's rebounding numbers from last year... were they a function of his ability, or the inability of the front court to pull down the ball. What about the fastbreaks that resulted from Steve going for the rebound? How do you quantify those?

    I agree that much of that could be done. BUt it would take a great deal of work, and probably more than is worth it.
     
  3. B

    B Member

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    Haven,

    You bring up a lot of good points in your post. If I reward versality in each position, than how can you tell if someone is a better traditional PG or PF? Also, I want to make each position unique, otherwise I'm just creating another TENDEX type rating system for all players. I think what I'm trying to do is rate it position based on what would be considered "ideal" for that position. I know most players don't fit into a mold as well as they used to, and there are a ton of things that stats can't measure. I don't plan on using this as a scouting tool or anything important like that, more as a fun type thing to look at, and maybe to discuss things like would Steve be a better fit at PG or SG, and is Morris a better SF or SG, etc.

    I want the SF position to reward/demand versatility more than any other position. So players that can do a bit of everything are considered a SF in this system. A passing first player would be considered a PG, etc. I tried to base this on what is normally considered important for a particular position. Sure Hakeem is a good passing center, but do most coaches look for a passing center, or a rebounding/shot blocking center? I know this is FAR from accurate depection of different positions, but it's a start. Basketball can not be fully comprehended by numbers, but there are a lot of things that can be told. Anyways, thanks for the input Haven.

    Oh, you mention Steve's rebounding numbers and that brings up an interesting case. With my rating system, Steve doesn't benefit much from getting boards, but a power forward or a center benefits greatly. This is because normally, you would want your center or power forward to be in rebounding position, and your guards and SF ready to run the fast break. So normally the point guard would be on the opposite end of the fast break and either score, or have a dish to the SG or SF.

    I don't think any system can account for everything, or be anywhere close to perfect, but if I can show that Kidd is a better PG than Stephon, and Stephon is a better SG than Kidd would be, than I'm starting to get somewhere with the system. Anyway, my eyes are blurry and my thinking isn't straight, so I'm going to sleep. Thanks for the input!

    B
     
  4. Behad

    Behad Member

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    B, haven:

    I think you guys have waaaaay too much time on your hands, and too many brain cells still living for your own good.

    Grab a brew, sit back, and enjoy the game!:D
     

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