Plateau's of Talent

Every year, come draft time, you can peruse the web and see dozens of draft experts like Andy Katz pontificate upon who will be drafted where, whose stock is rising, and whose is plummeting. And each of those draft experts will attempt to rank the incoming class, trying to point out who the consensus No. 1 pick is, who will get drafted in the top 5 etc.

But I think that method is flawed. To me, every draft has clearly dileneated Plateaus of Talent, and within those plateaus, the players are roughly equal, and the decision to draft them is based upon need. With that on mind, let us take a look at the Talent Plateaus that I believe exist in this draft.

Cornerstones

I call this top plateau the Cornerstones, because I believe that each one of these guys could be the cornerstone of a franchise, these guys are the cream of the crop - the next superstars. This does not mean that these guys might not be busts, that is always an issue, but I believe that they have a much lesser chance than the guys who follow them.

The first Cornerstone is the supremely talented Kwame Brown. This 6-11 forward out of Glynn Academy is, in my opinion, the best player in this draft. Although he’s a high schooler, he’s already got an NBA body, which means he’ll get serious minutes in his first year in the league. His ball-handling and shooting are well above-average for a man his size, and they will only get better the more years he plays in the league. If I had the No. 1 pick, there would be no hesitation on my part to take Kwame Brown.

The next Cornerstone is high schooler Eddy Curry. This big fellow has drawn comparisons from some scouts to a young Shaquille O’Neal, which tells me one thing : They never saw Shaquille O’Neal play when he was young. As talented as Curry is, O’Neal would’ve destroyed him in a one-on-one match-up. However, Curry does still have some serious talent. His post moves are a joy to watch and he finishes with authority on the offensive end, defensively he will seriously intimidate the offensive players. Unlike O’Neal Curry has a decent jumper and is a good foul shooter. There are some concerns surrounding his work ethic and whether or not his weight will balloon up once he begins to rake in the dough. He’s got the tools to be great, but think more Patrick Ewing, and not Shaquille O’Neal.

The third Cornerstone is the troubled freshman Eddie Griffin out of Seton Hall. Griffin hit the college ranks like a thunderclap, throwing down monstrous dunks, swatting lay-ins into the cheap seats and displaying the skills that might make him an NBA superstar. But halfway through the season Griffin got into a fight with teammate Ty Shine, who apparently didn’t pass him the ball enough in a loss to Pitt. After the altercation, Seton Hall fell apart as a team dropping from a top ten team to an NIT also-ran. He has all the tools to be a great player in this league, but one cannot help but look at him and think Derrick Coleman, who was also a super talent who failed to live up to expectations because of mental problems.

The final Cornerstone is freshman Rodney White, who played his college ball at Charlotte. White is a combo forward, with the skills to play either the three or the four on either end of the court. He’s a superb ball-handler and he’s got a sweet jumper, but he also will bang on the boards and hits the offensive boards hard. One play for me sums up White’s season. It was versus Cincinatti in the Conference USA championship game. Midway through the second half, with Cincinatti making a run to tighten the game up, one of Charlotte’s players took a jumper that clanked off the iron. White bolted down the lane, took off and contorting his body he grabbed the rebound and slammed it home on top of two Bearcat big men. Rally Over. Game Over. Sometimes he has a tendency to do to much, but that to me stems from playing for an undertalented Charlotte team than anything else.

Enigmas

The next group of players I wish to discuss are what I call the enigmas. These are the players, who in my opinion, have the chance to be a superstar, but could very easily become enormous busts. Each of them is supremely talented, but each of them has a potential for a crucial flaw to kill their careers.

The first enigma is National Player of the Year, and Dookie Shane Battier. Battier is perhaps the smartest player in this draft and a master of the intangibles. He will start whereever he goes, and will immediately make his team better, his ceiling isn’t as high as some of the others because he has not been blessed with eye-popping athleticism, but he has great instincts that help make-up for this short-coming. He also has very little chance of being a bust, because of the things mentioned previously, and so in a worst case scenario, he would be a hard working role-player and Rick Fox-type, without the bad hair or the beautiful wife. A best case scenario has him playing second fiddle to a superstar, maybe making a couple of all-star games - sort of on par with what Sam Cassell has done. I think it is very likely that Battier will overachieve in the NBA, as he seems that soort of player.

The second enigma is Jason Richardson, the high-jumping sophomore out of Michigan St. Blessed with incredible athleticism, he can do a windmill dunk, Richardson has worked at adding an outside shot to his offensive repetoire. That shot is still a little shaky at times, and that limits his offense. However he still has the tools to be a great player, if he shores up that shot watch out, because that opens up his entire offensive game. If he does that, than there is no reason he couldn’t become an elite shooting guard in this league, rather like Vince Carter. But if he doesn’t you could very well see Larry Hughes pt II, whose thrown up enough bricks to for every Warrior season ticket holder to get one to throw through the window of the corporate office.

Imagine, for a moment, a 7’0”, 300lb defensive maestro with suprising offensive skills. That’s enigma number three Sagana Diop. Diop has reknown a a defensive stud, a big beefy fellow who will block shots, own the glass and generally create havoc for the opposing team. However, what comes as a shock is his soft hook, average turnaround and his mind-boggling 8 assists per game in high school. Obviously there will be a adjustment period, as Diop comes from being drastically taller than his opponents to being able to look them in the eye. Diop also has an incredible work ethic, as he went from being completely unable to speak english, to teaching small kids how to speak it within a year. Given how complicated a language english is, that is an incredible feat.

Tyson Chandler is a man without a position, and thus an enormous enigma. It would be folly to completely dismiss Chandler, as 7-footers with his athleticism, shot-blocking and jumper don’t come along but once a decade. The problem comes with his desire to paly the perimeter, which would be required anyway, as he is way to thin to play in the pivot, he’s like Dan Langhi - but skinnier. He will play the SF position when he first enters the league, but I question whether or not he has the ball-handling abilities, or the requisite quickness to prosper there. Also in question is his attitude, at a national tournament earlier this year pro scouts from around the nation came to watch him and Curry match up. The game was dissapointing, but what was more dissapointing was that after the scouts left, Chandler came down with a hamstring pull and didn’t play in his team’s next game, and his team was promptly slaughtered by Willowridge.

Have you ever seen a 7-ft shooting guard? A 7-ft with athleticism to spare, a deadly outside shot and an indomitable will to win? Then let me intriduce you to Spaniard Pau Gasol. Gasol is incredibly versatile with a sweet outside shot, but he’s also a good rebounder and he finishes off fast breaks with flair. In the Spanish League playoffs, Gasol lead his team to an undefeated run to the title, even proclaiming before the finals that his team would sweep the competition, because he wanted to be in America for the draft. Gasol has everything you would need to become a star, but there are some things that could bring that to a screeching halt. First off, culture shock. How well will he respond going from Europe to the USA, and how well will he transition from the European game to the American one? Secondly, he was facing inferior competition in the Spanish league, will he be able to transition to facing off against players like Kevin Garnett and Rasheed Wallace? If he does he could be a franchise player in this league, if not, well maybe someone could trade him to the Pistons for a first round draft pick.

Let’s talk about Joe Johnson. Johnson is a talented 6’8” forward with point guard skills. His ball handling is excellent, and he has an instinctual feel for passing the ball that you usually only find in short guards. That it exists in a fluid 6’8” athlete such as Johnson is a marvel, and has draw him comparisons to Magic Johnson and Lamar Odom. That’s lunacy, Johnson is good, and could be a big star in the league, but at what position. He cannot play the 1 or 2, because the smaller guards that inhabit those positions will eat him alive, but can he survive at the three? That question becomes more apparent when you consider his perimeter oriented game, which must change if he enters the pros. Things that also must be considered are that he’s not markedly better than he was last year, and that Arkansas had a dissapointing season this year.

Zach Randolph is a big guy. In both height and girth he surpasses many of his opponents at 6’9”, 290lb. He doesn’t have great range, but with his quickness and girth, there is no one who will be able to keep him from establishing low post position. He has superb offensive moves in the low post, but his defense is poor, which is why his playing time was limited for the Spartans. There are also some concerns that his weight may balloon up once he hits the pros, and that will hamper his game. Worst case scenario is that he’s the next Robert Traylor, best case is that he puts up similar numbers to Elton Brand.

Swiss Ballers

I term this group the Swiss Ballers, why, because they each have big holes in their game. Each of these players has the raw tools to be a big contributor for a winning team, but each of them also has a big gaping hole in their game that might stop that from happening.

The first Swiss Baller is Troy Murphy. Murphy is the big crazy power forward who played his college ball at Notre Dame. He is not terribly athletic, but he is a dead-eye shooter from midrange and he does hit the boards hard. Interestingly enough, he was on the squad that scrimmaged against the US national team prior to the Olympics. But he rarely got off the bench, and he promised revenge on both Bob Huggins and John Chaney for that. He then dropped 30 points on both of them during the season. His gaping hole is his slow feet and lack of defense.

The next Swiss man is Jamaal Tinsley, point guard out of Iowa St. Nicknamed the “Abuser” for the way he treated opponnents with his vicious cross-over and lightening quick hands, those skills made him a star player at the college level. He dribbles the ball like its attached to his hand with a string and has a good enough shot that you have to play him close, or he will bury you. His problem is that he can be baited into a one-on-one contest, and lose sight of the bigger picture. He also has a tendency to lower his shoulder and try and drive through his opponents, which can get him into foul trouble against crafty NBA points.

Vladimir Radmanovic.That’s just a cool name, and it belongs to a player who is rocketing up the draft board. This 6’10” forward has dazzled in draft workouts, showing great shooting, good leaping ability and says his best attribute, his passing, has yet to be seen. The problem comes with his meteoric rise, how often have we seen players leap up the draft board, only to prove to be dissapointments in the pros. That is not to say that Vlad will prove to be a bust, but that I would be wary of players who seem to come out of nowhere, there’s probably a reason they were in nowhere.

Now we get to the tale of two centers : Loren Woods and Brendan Haywood. Both have the physical tools to be star pivot men in this league, Haywood with his physical prowess and Woods with his soft jumper and shot-blocking ability. They both have the same problem, passivity. If someone could light a fire under either one of their asses then they would be something, but no one has managed to so far, and it doesn’t appear that anyone will be able to. In addition to his passivity, Woods has a suspect back that has already required two operations.

Omar Cook is a maestro on the basketball court. He creates like few others before and it is a simple joy to watch him on the court. He averaged almost 9 assists per game for St. Johns this year, which is an insane amount for a college player. However, he couldn’t hit the ocean form the beach, his shooting is horrific, and that’s being kind. He’s also a little short for a point guard, and without a decent shot that will hamper his playmaking abilities.

If you were watching the NCAA tournament this year you may have noticed that Arizona forward Richard Jefferson put on quite a show in helping lead Arizona to the national title game. Jefferson is an athletic 6’8” forward who plays excellent defense, no merely a good shot-blocker, but good man defense. The problem is that Jefferson’s shot is erratic, and his ball-handling isn’t much better. I also think Jefferson is more suited to defending opposing shooting guards than small fowards, and will probably come off the bench at that position.

If Shane Battier is the consummate stay-in-school story, then Terence Morris is the counter-example. If he had left school after his sophmore year, he would have been a definite lottery pick, but he stayed in school for two years, and his stock plumetted until he’s looking at the second round. He’s still as athletic as he ever was, and his jumper is still as silky smooth as it was, but what changed was that he was forced into a leadership role for which he was not prepared, nor did it suit his personality. In this role he flloundered, in comaprison to the success he showed while playing in a complementary role in his sophmore season. He would be an excellent pick-up for a team that already has a star in place, and merely needs an good defensive three to block some shots and nail some jumpers.

Cogs

I call the next talent plateau the Cogs, because these guys are the vital parts of any good team that you need to be succesful. They may not have much hype, nor may they have much talent, but they will be consistent professionals who will give you the same thing every game. They won’t be stars, but they will be there.

The first cog is Arizona power forward Michael Wright. Wright is a little undersized for a power forward but he is a tenacious rebounder who has a nose for the ball. He doesn’t have great offensive moves, but he will give you rebounding, and that’s all you expect.

Then we talk about Nebraska point Cookie Belcher. Belcher is 6’4” which is tall for a point guard and is an excellent defender with quick hands. Offensively he’s not much to watch, but he could find a role as an Eric Snow-type complement for a team with a small two, or one that’s defensively challenged.

Watching Gilbert Arenas play ball is a joy. He’s so smooth and controlled when he plays, its like watching a star play. The problem is that Arenas is only 6’3”, and not terribly athletic, yet I never daw him have problems creating his own shot. He seemed to be able to get open almost at will and his jumper is deadly. He won’t ever be a great defensive player or an offensive powerhouse, but he will score when you need it. He could find a niche as a Vinnie Johnson-type scorer off the bench.

Ken Johnson is the Big Ten’s leading shot-blocker, but a below-average offensive player and rebounder. Johnson will come in and give you one thing night in and night out - shot-blocking. He may have a career reminescent to Ervin Johnson who will provide some defensive toughness for a team that needs it.

Stanford center Jason Collins may be a suprising addition for any team that picks him up. He’s big, 6’11”, 255lbs, and has a shot that is consistent out to the college three. He’s not terribly athletic, but he will grab rebounds, hustle on defense and hit a jumper or two.

Question Mark and the Mysterians.

These are the true mysteries of the draft, with potential to be stars or to be just solid contributors, but with so many questions and things arrayed against them that simply having a relatively long career seems to be out of there grasp. However, each of these players has enough potential to make GM’s take that risk and maybe reward them with a very good player. But if the player turns out to be a stiff, it could leave the GM that picked them “Cryin’ 96 tears”.

Our first puzzler is Michael Bradley. He had a good FG% and a decent jumper, but he has a poor FT%, and his team slipped down the stretch and when his team needed him the most he didn’t play well. He also had an unusually small number of blocks for a guy who was 6’11”, even if he’s not a terrific shot-blocker, he should be able to at least stumble into more than 0.9 blks a game. How he will react to playing agaisnt top-notch talent is anyone’s guess.

The next mystery is Gerald Wallace. No one denies his athleticism, or his work ethic, but he’s still a 6’7” Forward w/o a consistent jumper. He’s an incredible leaper, and it was referred to as a joke that he was even going to college, but he did not dominate like someone that highly touted should, and his team had a dissapointing year. In fact, teammate Rod Grizzard might be a better pro prospect.

Joseph Forte was a star at the college level, but that does not mean it will translate to the pros. He is short, shorter than listed in fact and his shot wasn’t that great. He also didn’t seem to be particularly fast, or particularly athletic, which could be trouble because it means he might have trouble creating his own shot at the professional level. If he isn’t able to score consistently, then that might spell trouble because he brings nothing else to the table other than his scoring.

Now we get to the bottom of the first round and a trio of centers that may or may not pan out. Alvin Jones, Samuel Dalembert and Stephen Hunter are all athletic centers who lack in the fundamentals. Dalembert is 6’11” with a 77-inch wingspan and is a good shot-blocker, however he is not good offensively, and other than shotblocking does not bring much else. He has a perfect NBA-body though, and that may be enough for some teams to take a look. Stephen Hunter had a dissapointing year at DePaul, but his height and athleticism should draw somw interest. Alvin Jones was a good shot-blocker at Georgia Tech, but he had little offensive game, and poor touch under the basket. None of these guys figures to make a big impact in the pros, but their size and potential may get them picked in the first round.

Kedrick Brown is a complete mystery he’s apparently a 6-7 JUCO PF, but worked out well enough that the Celtics promised him a lottery pick. You figure it out, I know nothing.

The final high schooler who will probably be drafted is Ousmanne Cisse. Cisse is a 6-8 PF who is a voracious rebounder. He apparently has had some knee injuries, but that does not diminish from his rebounding and defensive prowess. He is a beast under the basket who gives no ground to anyone, but offensively he’s below-average and he couldn’t have gone to college even if he wanted to.

Conclusion

I have, of course, not mentioned every single player who will be drafted, nor have I likely mentioned even all of the first round draft picks. I only hope this will give you an indication of where the talent in this draft lies, and how you might consider evaluating talents in drafts in the future. Of course this is only my opinion, and is not necessarily shared by TheCat, nor by anyone else but me. If you use this to put together your drafting strategy, you do so at your own risk.


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[This message has been edited by Puedlfor (edited June 25, 2001).]

[This message has been edited by Puedlfor (edited June 25, 2001).]

 

I think I done good.

 

I forgot a section. I will edit it to correct that.

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You will find Tinsley under the Swiss Baller section.

[This message has been edited by Puedlfor (edited June 25, 2001).]