Maybe this would have been solved if Hinch had changed the rotation order. Butterfly effects and all.
Certainly a little, these guys had injury history. But when all 5 guys are out at the same time, that's pretty unforseeable. I'm still not convinced this will be a long term issue aside from costing us a rough patch. If all 5 projected starters have injuries that cause them to miss significant time, there's no trade in the world we could have made to offset that. The best pitcher in the world still only starts every 5 days. As for the search for a TOR arm, we know that hunt started this offseason. Given our massive lead (and no target exactly setting the world on fire) I'm fine with them being patient. If we had pulled the trigger on a Quintana deal, we wouldn't be feeling all that great about it right now.
Completely. Front Office has assembled a quite nice pitching staff and they deserve the credit for doing so. Having as many pitchers down at once is weird, and the Astros may drop to second or third best record in the majors in the next week or so. I am pretty sure Astros will still be leading the division 10 days from now and Lance/Dallas will be back or close to being back. Dammit Luhnow for having a pitching staff hurt at same time that may cause Astros to drop to second or third best record in the majors. Damn you!
In his last 4 outings he has gone 4, 2, 5 and 5 innings. With a 9.87 ERA, he wouldn't be helping much. The Astros don't want a repeat of Scott Kazmir where you make a move for a guy you think is gonna put you over the top, and he ends up being of little help when it matters. All 3 of the targets have potential to be really good for us (including Quintana, I don't think he is some useless scrub), but at this point Cole, Gray and Quintana all carry quite a bit of risk considering what the cost will be. I don't think prospects should ever be untouchable, moving them for proven players is extremely important to building a winner. But prospects are a form of currency, and like any currency you can't just give it away flippantly by caving to whatever asking price, you have to be smart about it.
The timing and magnitude of injuries isnt the offices fault, I agree. Before the season began, I felt like two of DK, LMJ, Morton and McHugh would go down missing significant time. McHugh and Morton have.
Sure, that is how he has pitched. We cant be sure those numbers would have played out that way had he been traded though. Agree there is risk. There is also risk in doing nothing.
Finally we agree on something LOL. The Astros are taking a risk either way. If Keuchel, Morton and McCullers all have a lingering issues we could very quickly find ourselves toilet bowling because we aren't fielding an MLB calibur pitching staff. Then we go into panic mode and can't stop the bleeding. But I can't help but feel the Astros are really confident that these guys are gonna be good to go for most of the second half, because we have't made a move for any kind of starter, and if this is a long term issue that will have been a very stupid choice to make.
You do realize that when I like a post, it generally means I agree with it? Right? In situations where there is risk in taking action AND not, I tend to lean towards being pro-active (big surprise!).
LMJ and Morton, certainly - they have a history of issues and, even if healthy, would be pushing into new innings territory. McHugh had no real history of injury prior to this season, as far as I know - though I don't know when exactly the current issue cropped up and how early they knew it was an issue. DK was a binary situation - he had an injury last year, but no real history of injury otherwise. He was either recovered from it or not. As it turns out, he was - and the team had a lot more info on that than we did. It's unfortunate that he got hit be a random unrelated injury, but there was no reason to expect it. This is terrible. You could lean towards the scenario with the highest upside or the lowest downside or the highest likelihood of a good outcome or any number of things. Any of those make logical sense as a way to build a team. But just leaning towards action over inaction for the sake of it? That's a terrible decision making process.
I'm legit concerned for the first time this season, I will say that. Something needs to happen soon, I think.
Very well said. I've never seen Luhnow make an unreasonable trade based on publicly available information to estimate WAR with the exception of the Conger and Giles trades. Publicly available information has a hard time with catchers and relievers, IMO.
There should have been some expectation of injuries with the current staff, however nobody can properly prepare for an entire starting rotation being hurt at the same time. I think we should have gone after a TOR pitcher in the offseason and still think that's what we need to do. But I'll admit that would not have adequately shielded us from what has transpired so far.
I meant it as a description of the way I think, not that it applies to all situations equally. I certainly didn't say it was my team building philosophy. But I didn't give you any context, so I well let it pass In this situation, I lean towards going after a TOR and/or even a serviceable reliever (pro-active), as Sealclubber pointed out vs waiting to see (doing nothing) if the current staff will get healthy enough on their own and in a timely fashion.
Astros can't force other teams to make trades. Only way Astros trade for a SP right now is to cave in and give a team more than they know they can get at deadline. Astros probably still at least a month out before other teams willing to make reasonable deals for a ToR SP. Considering Astros will likely have a big division lead and probably will still be within striking distance of best record in baseball by time Lance and Keuchel gets back, I'm pretty sure any action for a SP will likely not be wise. Getting a reliever may be possible though I expect Astros will go from a stressed pen to overflowing with long relievers in about three weeks.
If we want a TOR, we will have to give said team more than other teams would in any case. But I am not advocating a desperation trade where we give up the store for a mediocre return. No. I am suggesting we offer now what we would at the trade deadline and see if anyone bites. It may be the case that the front office has been pro-active all year in finding a TOR. And all they have found to this point are bad deals. If so, there is not much more we can expect of them. But, if they have been dragging their feet, I suggest they stop. That is a problem I dont mind having.
All reports are the Astros are incredibly active in trying to get a ToR SP if not the most active since the Sale trade. No team will accept what the Astros will offer at trade deadline right now. Teams overpay when they are desperate. Teams with a SP to trade will wait until deadline to see if another team gets desperate enough to overpay by a large margin. It is some risk waiting a little over a month that a guy could severely underperform/get hurt, but it is hard enough to trade for SP in the off-season that I think teams are willing to take that chance for just a month to month and half.
