Since the Rockets apparently owe the Grizzlies a top-15 pick either this year or next, I think it might be best to trade it to them this year. I'm not sure when the deadline is for exercising options to trade picks in fulfillment of prior trade obligations (can someone check on that?), but it seems that trading the lowest possible pick the Rockets could give the Griz would be a good idea. Plus, it's insurance in case they fall on their asses again next season. If the guys that Rudy and CD want are not projected to be available at #15--or if they cannot find a good trade to make prior to the draft that includes the pick--then the Rockets may want to be done with their obligation to the Griz for kindly giving us our franchise player.
Deadlines for conveying picks are nearly impossible to come by. However, they were important with our debt to Vancouver last year and the date was published. I don't have time to dig for it now, but, if you look at old articles from that time in Houston, Vancouver, Detroit, or Orlando, you'd probably find it. It'd be nice if we could wait till it's our turn to pick at #15 and, if everything we wanted was off the board, turn to Memphis and say, 'here, you can have it now.' Unfortunately, by that time, Memphis would have an option to refuse it and probably would refuse it.
If we have not been able to trade up by the time the deadline comes, lets ship the pick to Memphis. I don't know how far we can trade up with a 15 pick, anyway, and it is not worth the risk given there is a 50/50 chance we will be back in the lottery next year. There should be a good SF available for us at 5 or 6, either Woods or Butler. Getting a backup 5 is not life and death, because that player will probably not be in the rotation, anyway. Shoot, if we need a backup 5, I would cut Collier and resign Willis.
I think we should keep the pick. One thing is for sure, Rudy & CD feel the pressure of getting us into the first round of the playoffs. TO DO THIS, I predict they are prepared to trade away our future (this year draft picks), for an already establish Vet. MY BIGGEST FEAR , is another over the hill Vet. They tried with Rice, and they will probably try again. As far as the #15 pick, it will be needed with ? (KT, etc.) to trade up in the draft or to trade for Odom or Lewis (with others). There should be one of the 3 centers available at #15, and any of them would be an upgrade to Collier. As far as next year, there is NO DOUBT that the Rockets will be trading somebody this offseason, and they should be able to pick up another pick next year. NO WAY this team just brings back Taylor & Rice expecting to dominate the playoffs (we do not want to make a run of multi-years as the next Timberwolves). Rockets will have to break up the friends (not Franics, Cat or Grffin), and pull off some bold moves. What those moves are? who knows.
As much as I enjoy the drama of having two #1 picks my gut tells me this is the time to ship it.... unless we can use it to move up significantly and nab somebody we really want, say Qyn Woods.
There is a good chance Woods will be there at #5. Some of the hype is starting to wear off (barely), and some mocks have Butler being picked before Woods. No telling who will be on board when the Rockets pick. Wilcox, Wagner & Gooden are the key to the Rockets choice. All three could be picked before the Rockets, which would send Woods & Butler down to us. Trust me, Rudy & CD do not care about next years Draft Crop (12-14). They are on a mission to make the playoffs (at all costs before the new arena is ready), and will either draft or trade those picks to improve the team. They can pick up another draft pick (next year), through some of the possible trading this summer.
1st, the pick could be #14 just as easily as #15. Further, by your logic (50/50 we make the playoffs next year) I think we should use the pick this year. Based on our combined record the last two years the pick would likley be in the neighborhood of 11-13 range if we don't make the playoffs. But if we do make the playoffs next years pick will likely be in the 19-22 range because of all the medicore East teams that fill out the bottom rung of the playoff teams. Further, because this year looks like a deep draft, a 14/15 pick this year might be better than 11-12-13 pick next year anyway. In sum, unless we really don't think there is a decent prospect at 14/15 this year AND it seems to be of little value in trades or moving up in the draft, I say use the pick this year and gun for the playoffs full steam next year. Much hunch is we defer paying the Gizzards unless this pick really doesn't seem as value and we can force it on them to finish the deal.
In my understanding, the pick has to be either ours, within 2 picks of ours, or a top 15 pick. I'm pretty confident we'll reach the playoffs next year, so that will be a later pick than 15 in a more diluted draft than this year's. We came within one game of making it last year. We'll have healthy players back, Griffin, and someone good we trade for this year, such as Odom or Lewis. So, I'd rather keep the pick this year, to increase the quality of who we trade for. This summer is critical in terms of rebuilding the team. We don't need anymore lotteries. Its time to take the nucleus we end up with this summer to the playoffs.
Please keep that #15 pick, we prefer to have your lottery pick next season:Lakers, Kings, Mavs, Spurs, T'Wolves, Sonics, Jazz, Blazers, Clippers, and the Suns finished ahead of you. I know you guys had serious injuries(Taylor, Rice, and Franchise) but so did we and we finished only 5 games behind you. You guys will be in a dogfight for a 7 or 8 slot next season and have proven to be very mediocre without Franchise. I am pretty sure you will give us your pick this season because your team would be physically ill if you took Kareem Rush(or similar) this season and we got Lebron james next season.
There would have to be injury problems similar this last season in order for us to have anywhere NEAR the record you would need to have a decent pick from us. I think the best you might hope for (assuming a non-distastrous injury ridden season, which I doubt will happen twice in 2 years) is maybe an 11-13 pick or so.
1) If the Lotto balls take a lucky bounce into the top 3, #15 is conveyed. 2) If the #15 is needed to be able to trade up for someone who has worked out well, it will not be conveyed. 3) If Glen Rice's contract can be packaged with only #5 required, the pick will be conveyed. 4) If #15 is required to package Rice...obviously not conveyed. 5) If a highly regarded but unexpected SF or PF is obtained at #5 AND another unexpected player who has worked out well falls to 15, it is not conveyed. (Imagine all have worked out well and Borchardt, Stoudamire or Marcus is available at 15 - no deal, we're keeping it) IMO, Juan Valdez is right about the Grizz refusing if it is conveyed too late in the draft. However, I'd be very surprised if both the Rockets and Grizz don't have contingency plans once the final draft order is determined.
Of course there are no guarantees but the fact so many fresh, soph and juniors are coming out (JW, Gooden, Woods, Wagner, Wilcox, Butler, Grizzard, Jeffries, Bordchart, Ely, Frank Williams, Rush) plus Ming being available sure makes this years draft look great in talent and good in depth. Most of these guys could have come out last year and virtually none of them came out of nowhere--it just sure looks like next year's crop is depleted unless there is a phenomental group of high schoolers and international players join in that are not on the map yet. I would take my chances with a 14/15 this year over probably worst case scenario of 11-12 next year (I think the latter is about the 95% lower bound, the top of the 95% bound is likely the 21st pick or so). I'd take my chances delaying the pick with it most likely to come in between 13-19 next year.
