Percentage of the teams with the highest lottery chance ended up with a top 4 picks

Not to be an ass, but I don't know why you feel the need to break down anecdotal data from the last two years when the exact odds for a top four pick are very public... Am I missing something? I think we know precisely what our chances are, and the last two (or ten) years don't change them.

 

Exactly. A lot of people are trying to look back to see what the odds are to keep but really it's just as it says. If we're the worst team it's 52%. In a hundred tries it'll happen around 52 times. That's just how percentages work.

 

I will go with the dumb and dumber response:

So you say we got a chance

https://images.app.goo.gl/wvnRdkJzcLYyDrBT7

 

How are percentages affected by bad or cheap ownerships? It starts with ownership ya know....

 

I'd say it doesn't matter considering Dan Gilbert got a couple of #1s and a few other high picks and he's not the best of owners.

 

You both are wrong...


The only precise way to really find out what we will get is to keep playing this game: http://www.tankathon.com/

 

It’s meaningless to look at historical realized draft outcomes. The lottery odds are not path dependent. Even if all the 28th seeds in history got the 1st pick, it will not change the fact that the Houston Rockets, as they currently stand, will get the number 1 pick with 14% of chance. IT WILL NOT CHANGE.

 

I don't understand why the percentage of ALL top 4 teams is relevant. We don't occupy ALL 4 spots. We only have ONE spot IF we are one of the four worst teams. And as others have pointed out, each spot's probability is already known.

 

Thanks for the effort OP...


#KeepTankAlive
Go Rockets!!!
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If this is anything like the college football playoff, we'd need two consecutive seasons of suckage as proof we belong.

 

Interesting wrinkle. So according to this graph, if we were to finish with the worst record, we’d be guaranteed a top 5 pick.

Whereas, if we stayed where we’re at, our pick can fall at worst to 7.

 

take a stats class.



Stats is hard in some ways and easy in some ways.

 

Give me a dream or a ming or give me a pass

 

No. lol. We don't keep our pick if it's not top 4. If we finish with one of the worst 3 records, we'll end up with a 52.1% chance of keeping the pick.

And that "graph" is from http://www.tankathon.com.

 

so, back to the ‘coin flip’ days; need retro-Charlie!

 

What I’m saying is, if we were to finish with the worst record in the NBA, we’re guaranteed a top 5 pick..... which means we’d there’s only ONE scenario we could lose it: if we land pick #5.

Whereas if we stayed with the 3rd worst record, it can fall to pick #6 or pick #7, which adds more potential scenarios in the equation to lose the pick.

 

No. Our probability of landing one of the first 4 picks is the same no matter if we have the worst record or the 3rd worst record.

If we finish with the worst record, our probability of landing the 5th pick is 47.9%.
If we finish with the second worst record, our probability of landing the 5th OR 6th pick is 47.9%.
If we finish with the third worst record, our probability of landing the 5th OR 6th OR 7th pick is 47.9%.

In any of those 3 cases, we lose the pick. Just because we have more probable landing spots for the pick in a scenario doesn't mean anything since the 47.9% of losing the pick is just spread across all those landing spots outside the 4th pick. In any of those 3 cases above, our probability of keeping the pick is 52.1%, so our probability of losing the pick in any of those cases is 100 - 52.1 or... 47.9%. For the Rockets, there is no difference among the worst 3 NBA records in terms of keeping our pick.

 

No. Being 1, 2 or 3 doesn't increase or decrease scenarios to lose a Top 4 pick. It only contributes to the order of picks *after* we've lost the Top 4 lottery drawing.

The drawing of lotto balls is only used for Top 4 positions, and after that draft position goes by worse record for #5-14 remaining teams who lost in the Top 4 drawing.

Those odds you see for #5, 6, 7 all add up to 47.9% for each of the Top 3 worse teams -- no new "potential scenarios in the equation" wrt ...

Does it matter if we're 1, 2 or 3 worse record ... no it doesn't.​

 

Got it. Got a bit confused there and misunderstood. Thanks for clarifying.