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Pentagon planning for strike on North Korean nuke facilities

Discussion in 'BBS Hangout: Debate & Discussion' started by treeman, Apr 23, 2003.

  1. treeman

    treeman Member

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    US draws up plan to bomb North Korea's nuclear plant
    Tue Apr 22, 2:56 AM ET

    SYDNEY (AFP) - The Pentagon has produced detailed plans to bomb North Korea's nuclear plant at Yongbyon if the Stalinist state goes ahead with reprocessing of spent nuclear fuel rods, an Australian report said.

    Citing "well-informed sources close to US thinking", The Australian newspaper said the plan also included a US strike against North Korean heavy artillery in the hills above the border with South Korea.

    The artillery directly threatens Seoul as well as US troops stationed south of the Demilitarised Zone.

    The Pentagon hardliners said to be behind the plan reportedly believe the precision strikes envisaged in it would not lead to North Korea initiating a general war it would be certain to lose.

    This is because Washington would inform Pyongyang that the bombing was not aimed at destroying the regime of Kim Jong-il, but merely at destroying its nuclear weapons capacity.

    The Australian report coincides with reports from Washington of an alternative US plan which envisages the United States teaming up with China to press for the removal of North Korea's leadership.

    The second plan, contained in a classified memo reportedly circulated by Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld, argues that Washington's goal should be the collapse of Kim Jong-il's regime.

    President George W. Bush's US Adminstration has repeatedly said it believed the standoff would be resolved through diplomacy.

    The reports come as confusion prevails over the ambiguous statements issued by Pyongyang last week about whether it has begun reprocessing 8,000 spent fuel rods or merely completed preparations to do so.

    Western analysts, including those in Washington and in South Korea believe North Korea's initial announcement was a mistranslation and doubt there had been any such reprocessing.

    Australian Foreign Minister Alexander Downer said Tuesday that Canberra also believed Pyongyang's statement claiming it had begun reprocessing the fuel rods had been mistranslated.

    Reprocessing the 8,000 fuel rods, which would yield enough plutonium for six nuclear warheads within six months, would be the most provocative step taken by North Korea since the nuclear crisis erupted six months ago.

    Downer told ABC radio on Tuesday that the Pentagon undoubtedly had "contingency plans for all sorts of things they could do in North Korea, militarily.

    "That's the military's job, to draw up contingency plans, but the American administration strategy, as the President explained to me three weeks ago, is to ensure that there is a successful diplomatic solution here," he added.

    "We are just on the threshhold of entering into the first round of talks. I don't know how they will go, but in any case we are starting to make a little bit of progess on the diplomatic front and there isn't about to be a bombing campaign."

    North Korea, the United States and China are set to sit down in Beijing this week for the first direct high-level talks since the nuclear standoff erupted in October. The talks will open Wednesday and are scheduled to run until Friday.


    http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tm...30422/wl_afp/nkorea_us_australia_030422065641

    So what do you think? If NK goes ahead and begins the reprocessing process, then within a few months they will have a credible nuclear deterrant, which would allow them to act even more aggressively than they have to date. It might even lead them to believe that it would give them the firepower to take the South.

    It's a tough one. Personally, I think that it's a gamble to think that Kim would understand that such a strike would "not be aimed at destroying the regime of Kim Jong-il, but merely at destroying its nuclear weapons capacity". I don't put that much faith in the man's ability to make rational decisions. If we were to initiate such a strike, I would hope that we would do so with the full expectation that it would lead to a full-scale war on the Korean peninsula.

    When asked why we were going into Iraq and not North Korea now/first, I always replied that the main reason was that Iraq would be easier. Winning Iraq theoretically makes it easier to deal with other rogue regimes, as they will now see that we are both willing and able to go to war to achieve security objectives - and win. But Korea is scary... We want to do this one without a shooting war, IMHO.

    How do you feel about a first strike? Too risky, or unavoidable and/or justified?
     
  2. Heretic

    Heretic Member

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    Something tells me that bombing a nuclear plant and taking out a few artillery pieces would not have quite the desired effect.
     
  3. treeman

    treeman Member

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    I would expect that such a plan would have to include alot more than that, but... that would lead to full-scale war. To me it seems that you either bomb *only* the reprocessing site in order to send a clear and precise message, or you bomb everything and conduct a "regime change" operation (a full scale war). No friggen in-between, because you can't expect Kim to understand the nuances of "we bomb their tube artillery along this line, but we leave their SCUDs along this line alone"...

    So yeah, I'd tend to agree.
     
  4. DaDakota

    DaDakota Balance wins
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    I think Kim is shaking in his boots right now....I am sure what we did in Iraq is weighing heavily on his mind.

    By the way, I wanted to thank Bill Clinton for paying him off to stop his nuke program....good thing he did that, now Kim wants more...surprised anyone?

    DD
     
  5. Ottomaton

    Ottomaton Member
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    Just in case some people aren't aware --

    I've seen several quotes detailing the degree to which artillery in the hills above Seoul is incredibly well hidden and numerous. It is claimed in these articles that the prevailing opinion is that it would be impossible to expect to take out enough of the artillery to prevent a 1,000,000 deaths in Seoul if the North responded agressively with chemical weapons. Whether this is true or not, I think we can at least assume that the Seoul would potentially suffer a far greater price than Kuwait was recently subjected to in an all-out war.

    Also, if we did a limited bombing and Kim misinterpreted the situation and decided to attack Seoul, he could probably have it reduced to cinders before we could respond. Given his history of miscalculations, this doesn't seem entirely unlikely. In otherwords, it might be a safer course to assume that you can take out 95% of S.Korean artillery and hope to limit civilian deaths to the hundreds or thousands, as opposed to betting the farm that Kim will appreciate restraint.

    Delicate balance.

    Also, anybody who thinks North Korea is being demonized and isn't really that bad of a place should watch "Welcome to North Korea" with secret footage shot by a British journalist in the North. It shows a police state that excedes the worst stereotypes.
     
  6. kidrock8

    kidrock8 Member

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    Good.

    It's about time we seriously did something to NK.

    As a Korean-American, I have been wanting Kim to get eliminated by any means necessary.

    I'm sure people will call me a war-monger and what not, but thye simply do not understand the plight that N Koreans have gone through. What makes it sad, is that the N Koreans buy into the propoganda they are fed, and they believe they are in a good shape.
     
  7. BubbaMac

    BubbaMac Member

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    Attacking North Korea won't be as easy as Iraq. If the U.S. attacks North Korea, Seoul is gone.
     
  8. Deckard

    Deckard Blade Runner
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    Whether Iraq could have waited while we dealt with N. Korea is a mute point now, obviously. I had hoped we would bring military pressure to bear when this problem with them first resurfaced. I'm concerned that the Administration's "hawks" will say that we now have no choice but to strike. And the plan mentioned sounds like some fantasy. The idea that we can pick and choose our targets and the NK leadership will sit back and nod their heads sagely and say, "it's OK, lets just relax and they'll be finished in a little bit" is really a flight of imagination that leaves me incredulous.

    Hell yes, the idea of a full scale conflict is scary. They may have outdated hardware, but they have planned for this for 50 years. They are supposed to have a couple of nukes, at least, and other unpleasent things to throw an unpleasently short distance to hit South Korea where it hurts. And the leadership of North Korea is well short of a full deck upstairs. Let's hope the State Department can come up with a diplomatic solution, hopefully with the Chinese and perhaps the Russians.

    DaDakota, you think North Korea is shaking in their boots? Imagine what South Korea and it's people are feeling right about now. This is not Iraq, circa 2003 OR 1991. This requires diplomacy I hope the Administration has in it. I'm not reassured by it's track record. This is one we have a lot of agreement on, treeman, now that what I had hoped could be avoided or postponed has occurred. What a mess.
     
  9. subtomic

    subtomic Member

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    This "memo" seems like a calculated leak to show NK that we are serious about them ending their reprocessing. The problem is that NK might get the impression that we have already decided on "regime change" and will then launch an all-out attack on Seoul. Obviously, we would get plenty of support from other countries if that happened, but the damage would already be done. With these stakes, I think it would be a better idea to present an image of acquiescence (even thought we don't and shouldn't have any plans to back down at all) just to keep tempers cool. So I think this leak is way too premature and somebody in the administration needs to tighten the information flow up considerably.
     
  10. DaDakota

    DaDakota Balance wins
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    No no no...I do not think we should attack North Korea at all. I do think it can be worked out diplomatically.

    However, I guarantee they are not so willing to poke the lion in the eye after seeing what we did to Iraq.

    DD
     
  11. MoBalls

    MoBalls Member

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    Dont think we should bomb them.......This could do much harm to South Korea.......Kim will be threatening us again in 10 years though.......Hopefully we can stop this peacefully.
     
  12. HOOP-T

    HOOP-T Member

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    Talks just began today right? Why would we engage in talks if we were going to bomb the plants and facilities, etc.

    Hogwash I tell you!

    :cool:
     
  13. kidrock8

    kidrock8 Member

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    You aren't aware of Kim Il-Jong are you? I would be surprised if he relinquished his toys (WMD).

    That is all he has. He spends the entire NK economy on WMD. If you take that away from him, he has nothing.
     
  14. Timing

    Timing Member

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    Well NK just admitted (again?) that it already has nuclear weapons and is threatening to export plutonium. I'd like nothing better than to bomb this Kim Jong-Il a-hole to hell but South Korea would get pounded. Tough situation.
     
  15. pasox2

    pasox2 Member
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    China, you get oil if you take him out. Russia, stay out of this. You screwed up, fix it. Now, send in your killers.
     
  16. mrpaige

    mrpaige Member

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    How do you stop something peacefully when the other side has no respect for its own agreements?

    Can any agreement with North Korea ever be trusted? The last one wasn't worth the paper it was printed on.

    If an agreement is made, does that mean we'll just see a far-more-developed nuclear program in North Korea in five years?

    It's a hideous conundrum. I hope some agreement that can actually be monitored will be able to be forged. The alternative seems to be to just let North Korea do whatever they want to do, or resort to military action... something that should be the last resort and which would likely have dire consequences.
     
  17. mleahy999

    mleahy999 Member

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    KimJI is like a freakin lying, two face, backstabbing drug addict leach who borrows and steals from anyone. He needs an asskicking real bad. And what's up with that perm?

    I do think this will be resolved diplomatically. The Koreans aren't irrational like some of those Jihad MiddleEasterners. All Kim wants is money and security, and he's pretty blatant in his blackmail attempt. We should really turn this over to SK and Japan to finance this. If they want to show him the money, then fine. If not, then we need to work together with China, Russia, SK and Japan on a military solution before it gets any uglier.
     
  18. UTweezer

    UTweezer Member

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    and what cause millions of south koreans to die?
     
  19. MacBeth

    MacBeth Member

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    Not to put too fine a point on it, but which side is that, exactly? You could easily make the argument either way.

    That said, this is indeed a troubling situation.
     
  20. treeman

    treeman Member

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    :rolleyes: :rolleyes: :rolleyes:

    First the Bush administration is just as bad as Saddam Hussein's regime. Now we're on the same level as Kim Jong-Il's? Hmm... Is that a step up or down? :confused:

    Has the US blackmailed anyone into giving it food and oil in order to feed its starving populace, only to turn around and break that agreement by restarting a banned WMD program? Has the US closed off whole sections of its territory to outsiders, and condemned everyone inside those sectors to death by starvation? Has the US repeatedly sent saboteurs and assassins into Mexico over the past 50 years with the intent of overturning the government there and stealing the land? Have we repeatedly threatened Great Britian with nuclear holocaust if they do not give us free oil? Hmm, lemme check... Nope.

    What in the F* are you talking about?
     

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