PA is less than a week away. NC/IN are 2.5 weeks away. Thoughts? Mine: PA: Clinton 57, Obama 43 (16 pt win for Hillary) NC: Obama 62, Clinton 38 (24 pt win for Obama) IN: Clinton 52, Obama 48 (4 pt win for Hillary) At the end of the day, the race continues through all the remaining primaries.
I'm thinking Obama loses by only single digits here in PA. There's been a massive increase in Democratic voter registration, and I just don't think they're crossing over to vote for Hillary in the primary. Much of that increase is here in the surrounding Philly suburbs -- many of the same high income voters (not to mention a few colleges) that Obama does well with. Plus, I still think that Obama's 3-1 advantage on TV spending will count for something. We'll see, but my gut tells me Hillary by 7 or less.
Yeah. I think Major may be engaging in a little bit of expectation-setting (insert smiley); I'd be surprised if she won by more than ten.
I don't do expectation setting. I think the Obama campaign sucks at it where it counts, but I don't think me doing expectation setting here affects anything. I go for accuracy instead. The reason I put Obama at 43 is actually due to the polls. Whatever they show a - 3 pt lead or a 15 pt lead, Obama's numbers are always 40-43%. Hillary's vary widely - 40% to 57% or so. That seems to suggest that depending on how much the various polls push people to commit to a candidate, people either say they are undecided or go with Hillary. If that holds in the election, then Obama gets his 43% or so, Hillary gets her 48% committed people, and the undecideds ultimately all vote Hillary, basically giving her the rest. Notice the various here: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...ennsylvania_democratic_primary-240.html#polls Almost every poll shows Obama at 40-43%, and he never gets above 45%. Hillary's spread tends to be between 42 and 54, with her peaking at 57%. Even the one that showed Obama ahead, he was only at 45%.
PA will be tight, but Hillary takes it. Hillary will have new momentum afterwards. North Carolina won't be treated as signficant because obama does not have to reach beyond his African American voting base to take it. In other words, he doesn't have to demonstrate coalition building skills to win North Carolina.
I think there will be some major movement in the last 48 hours before the polls open. I don't see Hillary getting all the heretofore undecideds, particularly with Obama's media buys. I also think there will be a big uptick in turnout and I don't see the majority of new voters going for Hillary. Obama keeps it close and then blows her out in NC. After PA, folks in IN realize it's a done deal and Obama wins there. So, not looking at the polling too much, I'll go with: PA = HRC +6 NC = BHO +20 IN = BHO + 4
FYI, here's a really good article about the changes in voter registration in PA. (It's too long to post in its entirety.) http://www.philly.com/philly/news/homepage/17949349.html I thought this nugget was pretty interesting in terms of what I mentioned above about new registrants likely for Obama: We'll see how many of the party switchers "go home" or vote for McCain in the general, but, regardless of what happens in the primary tomorrow, the massive gains in Dem voter registration in PA (326k gain vs 73k GOP loss in the past year) bode well for Dems here in November. By the way, I think rimrocker has it right. I'm going with HRC by 5-6 tomorrow.
To expound on this point, WTF is he thinking: http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/0408/Obama_Im_not_predicting_a_win.html Obama on KDKA radio in Pittsburgh this morning: "I’m not predicting a win. I’m predicting it’s going to be close and that we are going to do a lot better than people expect," he says Why raise expectations? The only thing that can happen is that you disappoint or meet your upgraded expectation.
Exactly. I think this is part of his strategy to convince super delegates that he's the front runner, and they should switch to him now. Obama would be far better talking about where the polls used to have him, and how Hillary has always enjoyed a huge lead. If it is close that would make Obama look like he can make up ground, and has momentum, while also making it look like Hillary can't close the deal.
It's getting tougher to play the underdog card. I think Rim's break down is dead on. I wouldn't be surprised by a closer result in PA. Fatigue must be setting in at the Hillary camp.
I agree with you overall that obama has a problem with counting chickens before they hatch. but I don't know if this is bad, especially if he was asked. what's he supposed say about expectations. I guess he could have just said "i don't know"
I don't think he can play himself as the underdog, but it is true that he's been far behind in the polls and likely won't finish as far behind as he was at the end of the last group of primaries. Then if he loses, by that much it will seem like it was inevitable. If he loses by less, it looks like he did a great job making a come back. The more he raises expectations the less of a boost it would be if he does well, and the bigger the disappointment if he does poorly.
I think you have to pivot away from the question - something like "we plan to be very competitive, but remember that this is only one of 8 remaining primaries. Clinton has a lot of roots here and has a lot of the state leadership providing support, so this is her turf, etc, etc" The problem now is that if he loses by 10, it's a big negative for him - whereas really, that is better than realistic expectations were a few weeks ago. Hillary, for all of her weaknesses, is brilliant at managing expectations and keeping herself in the race. I think this strategy would have made sense a few weeks ago - but no super is going to change based on Obama's predictions a day before the actual results. And now he's set himself up where if he loses by 6 or 7, Hillary can say "that was the expectation" instead of Obama being able to claim an "upset" by getting so close. I agree with you that he should have been focused on talking about how far behind he was and try to get people to remember and focus on her being up by 15-20 points. It's all spin, but it does impact the coverage a lot.
I hope Barack can keep it within 10pts but I do know that the Wife and I will be in line at 7am tomorrow morning to cast our votes for Obama!!
